NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The 2026 NCAA Tournament bubble is so weak that teams struggling through prolonged late-season slumps are getting grace merely because others around the at-large cut-line are losing, too. Case in point: Texas.
The Longhorns took a Quad 2 loss against Ole Miss on Wednesday in the first round of the SEC Tournament at Bridgestone Arena, falling 76-66 against a Rebels team that is now just 13-19. The Longhorns will arrive at Selection Sunday as an 18-14 team that has dropped five of its last six games.
But they are still alive in kicking in the race for an at-large bid.
After another day of carnage, the Longhorns will remain in the CBS Sports Bracketology field of 68 for now, largely because no one has risen to take their spot.
Texas entered the day at No. 44 in the all-important Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric and will take a hit following the loss. But the WAB’s No. 46 (SMU), No. 47 (Indiana) and No. 49 (Cal) teams also lost Wednesday to provide some padding for the Longhorns’ latest fall.
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The wasted Wednesday for bubble teams followed a terrible Tuesday that saw Stanford and Virginia Tech lose in their first round ACC Tournament games and slide from realistic at-large consideration to territory that should be unpalatable for inclusion.
Winner: Auburn survives another day
A 79-61 win over lowly Mississippi State wasn’t exactly a resume-enhancer for Auburn. But the win kept the Tigers’ at-large hopes alive on a day when many others in their neighborhood struggled. A Saturday showdown with No. 5 seed Tennessee in the SEC Tournament’s second round will be massive for the Tigers, who crept into the last spot in the field in CBS Sports Bracketology on Wednesday night.
Loser: Texas’ case dampened by old coach
Texas’ early exit from the SEC Tournament came with the added sting of being inflicted by former coach Chris Beard, who led the Longhorns to a No. 6 seed in the 2022 Big Dance during his only full season leading the program. But in Beard, the Longhorns have an advocate entering a nervy Selection Sunday.
“I think the resume speaks for itself in the SEC,” Beard said of the Longhorns, who owns six Quad 1 wins. “My confidence is they could have a nice NCAA Tournament. Sean (Miller) knows what he’s doing. He’s done it with multiple teams, and I think they’ve got really good players. The NCAA Tournament, in my opinion, it comes down to matchups, and I think Texas has players that can lead them to the second weekend.”
Winner: NC State nears safety
NC State’s 98-88 win over Pitt in the ACC Tournament was no thing of beauty, and it may have been all the Wolfpack need to solidify themselves in the field of 68. Beating a bad Pitt team will bring little real boost to NC State’s resume. But it sure beat the alternative at a time when others on the bubble are struggling. Would a win over No. 2 seed Virginia in Thursday’s quarterfinals bring some insurance? Absolutely. But unless there is a surge of bid thieves and a sudden wave of surprises from the dwindling bubble contingent, Will Wade’s club should be dancing during his first season at the helm.
Loser: Indiana makes a weak impression
Indiana entered the Big Ten Tournament likely needing a run to the quarterfinals to garner serious at-large consideration. The Hoosiers came up well short of the target, falling 74-61 against Northwestern in their opening game of the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday. IU will head into Selection Sunday at 18-14 with losses in six of its last seven games. The Hoosiers will have a negative score in WAB and an unsavory 6-14 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opposition.
Winner: Iowa a lock?
Whether Iowa played itself to certain lock status with a 75-64 win over No. 17 seed Maryland on Wednesday might have been up for debate had a bunch of other bubble teams won. But the Hawkeyes avoided the catastrophe which would have been losing to the 12-win Terrapins and likely secured their spot in the field. Beating Ohio State on Thursday would make for some great insurance, but the Hawkeyes probably don’t need it at this point after improving to 21-11.
Loser: Cal goes down
Cal got a brutal draw for the ACC Tournament, as the No. 9 seed Bears opened against a hot Florida State team. The No. 8 seed Seminoles kept their late-season surge alive with a 95-89 victory that likely ended Cal’s at-large aspirations. The Bears entered the day at No. 49 in WAB and lagging in other metrics. They probably needed a win over FSU and an upset of No. 1 seed Duke on Thursday. But Cal won’t get a crack at the Blue Devils, and the Bears shouldn’t expect to see their name flash across the screen on Sunday.
Loser: SMU’s fate up for debate
SMU’s at-large fate is up for debate following the Mustangs’ 62-58 loss to Louisville in the second round of the ACC Tournament. The Mustangs will head into Selection Sunday having dropped five of their past six games and with a profile of results-based metrics hovering in the mid-40s, which is right around the at-large cut line. With a combined nine Quad 1 and Quad 2 victories, this team certainly has a chance. But the next few days will be nerve-wracking for a Mustangs program that appeared to be in great shape just a few weeks ago.
Winner: UCF earns security
UCF might have been safe either way. Now, the Knights can exhale after rallying for a 66-65 overtime win over Cincinnati at the Big 12 Tournament. Regardless of what happens in Thursday’s quarterfinal matchup with No. 1 seed Arizona, UCF (21-10) should enter Selection Sunday with a good enough resume. This team has a lagging NET ranking (No. 51 entering Wednesday’s action) but it is comfortably inside the top-40 of WAB, which is more closely correlated with selection. It would be a big surprise if the Knights are not dancing.
Loser: Cincinnati’s dream dies
Cincinnati tried its best to rally over the final month of the regular season, winning six of seven games at one point to reach the bubble discussion. But after falling 73-63 at TCU in Saturday’s regular season finale and losing to UCF on Wednesday, the Bearcats’ dream has of dancing has died.
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