Michigan State rose from a No. 4 to a No. 3 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology following its 76-74 road win on Thursday over a Purdue team that remains a No. 2 seed. The Spartans’ dramatic victory brought a massive jump in their Wins Above Bubble (WAB) ranking, which reflects the value of a road win over a high-end Big Ten foe.
WAB is a vital resume metric used by the selection committee to compare the accomplishments of teams that played vastly different schedules. Every outcome results in a score between -1 and 1. Beating the Boilermakers resulted in a huge +0.93 addition to Michigan State’s WAB score, suggesting the average bubble team would be expected to lose at Purdue roughly 93% of the time.
The win improved Michigan State to 23-5 (13-4 Big Ten) and increased its WAB ranking from 14th to 5th. The Spartans’ WAB score of 6.82 reflects nearly seven more victories than the average bubble team would be expected to have against their schedule.
Gonzaga slipped from a No. 3 seed to a No. 4 seed as a result of Michigan State’s rise. The Zags (28-2, 16-1 WCC) close the regular season at Saint Mary’s on Saturday in their final regular-season game as a member of the WCC. It will be a high-end Quad 1 opportunity, which gives the Zags a chance at climbing back onto the No. 3 seed line before their postseason begins.
Here’s a look at the top seeds from the CBS Sports Bracketology model.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Huge Big Ten showdown on Friday
Friday’s top-10 showdown between Michigan and Illinois offers a late-season proving ground for both teams. It’s the beginning of a tough finishing stretch for the Wolverines (26-2, 16-1 Big Ten), who can clinch the outright Big Ten title with a victory. Slaying the Illini on the road would also help Michigan’s aspirations of earning the No. 1 overall seed. That position currently belongs to Duke in CBS Sports Bracketology as the teams are close in most selection metrics, and the Blue Devils own a head-to-head win on a neutral floor. If the Blue Devils suffered a loss down the stretch, it would likely result in the Wolverines rising back to the top spot — so long as they keep winning.
Illinois’ slim hope of rising to claim the last No. 1 seed will likely be hanging in the balance. If the Illini beat Michigan and then run the table through the Big Ten Tournament, they could have a case. But if nothing else, this provides the Illini an opportunity to regain some confidence against high-caliber opposition. Their last three losses have come in overtime by a combined six points over the past three weeks. Executing down the stretch and winning a close game against an elite team like Michigan would be a sign that Illinois should be taken seriously as a national title contender.
Rematch rules
Amid conference consolidation and the proliferation of nonconference matchups between high-major schools, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee faces challenges when it comes to avoiding regular-season rematches. The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket featured three potential second-round games between conference teams, although none of them came to fruition.
The committee will still seek to minimize conference meetings and nonconference rematches, and our model is coded to do the same. However, NCAA bracketing principles permit games between conference teams in the second round, so long as the teams in question played each other just once before the NCAA Tournament. For conference teams that met twice prior to the NCAA Tournament, principles state they should not meet prior to the Sweet 16. If the teams played three times, NCAA bracketing principles state they should not play before the Elite Eight.
With regard to rematches of nonconference games, NCAA bracketing principles state that they should be avoided “in the First Four and first round.” The committee will also “attempt to avoid” nonconference rematches in the second round. But the committee has historically prioritized keeping teams on their natural seed line over changing their seed line for the sake of avoiding a rematch.
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