Bracketology: Iowa State falls to No. 4 seed, Texas Tech rises in NCAA Tournament projection

Iowa State dropped to a No. 4 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology following its 73-57 loss at No. 2 Arizona on Monday night. It marked the Cyclones’ third loss in their last four games and underscored just how tightly packed teams in the Nos. 2-4 seed range are with less than two weeks until Selection Sunday.

Less than two weeks ago, Iowa State landed as the fourth No. 1 seed in the March Madness bracket preview. But with little separating teams 6-14 in the overall seeding hierarchy, recent struggles have come with a cost for the Cyclones, who are still a solid 14-6 across Quad 1 and Quad 2 games.

Texas Tech rose from a No. 4 seed to a No. 3 seed to replace Iowa State as it continues thriving without star forward JT Toppin. The Red Raiders have won three straight since losing their leading scorer and leading rebounder for the season due to a knee injury. In that time, they have hit 45.1% of their 3-pointers. Among their victories is a Saturday road win over Iowa State that could be especially impactful if the selection committee compares the teams side-by-side.

Here is a glimpse at how the CBS Sports Bracketology model sees the top of the bracket entering a busy Tuesday of action.

Bracketology top seeds

Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.

Movement since the preview

Another faller since the Feb. 21 bracket preview is Purdue. The Boilermakers landed on the No. 2 line when the selection committee offered its annual glimpse at the top 16 overall seeds. Now the Boilermakers are a No. 3 seed following consecutive losses to Michigan State and Ohio State.

Among those on the rise since the bracket preview is Michigan State. The Spartans are on a four-game winning streak and now reside on the No. 2 seed line in CBS Sports Bracketology after landing as a No. 4 seed in the committee’s preview. Florida and UConn have also risen in our model. The Huskies landed as the top No. 2 seed in the bracket preview but are the fourth No. 1 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology following recent losses from former No. 1 seed contenders like Iowa State, Houston and Purdue.

After landing as a No. 3 seed in the bracket preview, Florida is now nipping at UConn’s heels for the final No. 1 seed. The Gators can wrap up an outright SEC title with a win over Mississippi State on Tuesday. Alabama has also quietly risen from a No. 5 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology to a No. 3 seed while piecing together an eight-game winning streak highlighted by this past Saturday’s road win over Tennessee.

Rematch rules

Amid conference consolidation and the proliferation of nonconference matchups between high-major schools, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee faces challenges in attempting to avoid regular-season rematches. The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket featured three potential second-round games between conference teams, although none came to fruition. 

The committee will still seek to minimize conference meetings and nonconference rematches, and our model is coded to do the same. However, NCAA bracketing principles permit games between conference teams in the second round, so long as the teams played each other just once before the NCAA Tournament. For conference teams that met twice prior to the NCAA Tournament, principles state they should not meet prior to the Sweet 16. If the teams played three times, NCAA bracketing principles state they should not play before the Elite Eight.

Concerning rematches of nonconference games, NCAA bracketing principles state that they should be avoided “in the First Four and first round.” The committee will also “attempt to avoid” nonconference rematches in the second round. But the committee has historically prioritized keeping teams on their natural seed line over changing their seed line for the sake of avoiding a rematch.