Houston’s aspirations of playing in the South Region of the NCAA Tournament, which culminates in Houston at the Toyota Center, could be heavily influenced by what the Cougars do Monday night inside Allen Fieldhouse. That will be the site of a Big 12 battle between Kansas and Houston that carries significant Bracketology implications for both.
Both are coming off Saturday home losses that hindered their Big 12 title hopes, but both have plenty left to play for with Selection Sunday looming less than three weeks away. For the Cougars, the path to playing potential Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in their own city may be hanging in the balance.
Getting in position to being bracketed in the South by the committee would likely require one of the following two things for the Cougars: 1) Houston being the fourth No. 1 seed; or 2) someone other than Iowa State being the fourth No. 1 seed. With projected No. 1 seeds Duke (East), Michigan (Midwest) and Arizona (West) likely to prefer other regions, earning the fourth No. 1 seed is the most-promising route for the Cougars to play in the South.
Landing as a No. 2 seed is a workable fallback solution, so long as UConn remains the fourth No. 1 seed and doesn’t relinquish that spot to Iowa State. If the Cyclones — or another Big 12 school — ended up as a No. 1 seed in the South Region, it’s a near-certainty the selection committee would assign Houston somewhere else in adherence with bracketing principles around conference separation.
More on the stakes of tonight’s action in a moment. But first, here’s the look at how the seeding hierarchy looks entering the final week of February.
Bracketology top seeds
Check out the full field of 68 at the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
What’s at stake for Kansas
Kansas has lost two of its past three games, and those defeats have come by a combined margin of 34 points. Saturday’s 84-68 home loss against Cincinnati was the Jayhawks’ first 10+ point home loss to an unranked team since 1993. There is no guarantee that another loss — especially one against a quality foe like Houston — would immediately result in a drop from the No. 3 seed line for Kansas, but it would undoubtedly put the Jayhawks at risk of falling to the No. 4 seed line as results roll in throughout the week, and it would cap KU’s seeding ceiling. A loss may mean that a No. 3 seed is the absolute best-case scenario for the Jayhawks — even if they were to rally and finish strong.
What’s at stake for Louisville
If you take a scalpel to Louisville’s resume, what you will find is that the Cardinals have a solid 7-7 Quad 1 record but an 0-5 mark in gold-plated “Quad 1A” opportunities. Winning on the road against North Carolina would change that. The Cardinals get that opportunity on Monday night in an ACC showdown with the Tar Heels. A win would optimize their long-term trajectory and potentially result in a jump back to the No. 5 seed line in CBS Sports Bracketology. With high-caliber road games against Clemson and Miami also on the docket before the end of the regular season, the Cardinals also have an opportunity to close with a bang and flirt with a No. 4 seed.
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