Bracketology: CBS Sports experts predict NCAA Tournament bracket before committee reveals early top 16 seeds

The NCAA Tournament selection committee will offer a bracket preview on Saturday that gives an in-the-moment glimpse at the top-16 seeds as we inch ever closer to Selection Sunday. While Saturday’s results will immediately impact the picture, it will be an illuminating exercise that gives college basketball fans a look at where things stand.

While the CBS Sports Bracketology model is a strong believer in Michigan as the No. 1 overall seed, there are plenty of interesting questions that will be answered. Does the committee respect Florida’s strong standing in predictive metrics enough to make the Gators a No. 2 seed?

What about Texas Tech? Will a season-ending injury to star forward JT Toppin keep the Red Raiders off the No. 4 seed line? Then there’s the case of Alabama. The Crimson Tide have won five consecutive games and have strong resume. But their predictive metrics suggest they may be closer to a No. 5 seed. Will the committee include Alabama on the No. 4 seed line?

We’ll get answers to those questions and more insight from the bracket preview, which will be aired on CBS at 12:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. For now, our writers are taking their best guess at how the 1-16 hierarchy will look. Here are our takes:

NCAA March Madness Bracket Preview 2026: Current top 16 seeds unveiled, where to watch, live stream, channel

Cameron Salerno

Gary Parrish

It’s pretty obvious that Michigan, Duke and Arizona will be three of the projected No. 1 seeds. I’d give the fourth to Iowa State, the school that’s currently fourth in the Top 25 And 1. The Cyclones are 14-3 in the first two quadrants with six Q1 wins and zero losses outside of the first quadrant. That’s a comparable resume to the resume Houston possesses, and Houston is the other best candidate for the fourth No. 1 seed. But I’m going to let the tiebreaker be the Cyclones’ 70-67 victory over Houston that happened just four days ago, and that’s why ISU is a No. 1 seed and Houston is a No. 2.

Matt Norlander

To me, the No. 1 seeds aren’t debatable. Michigan is a lock for No. 1 overall, while Houston beats out Iowa State (despite the head-to-head loss) because it ranks better than the Cyclones in six of the seven team sheet metrics. Both teams are 23-3. ISU has two losses to two teams that could easily miss the tournament (Cincinnati, TCU). I think the No. 2 line is easy until you get to Purdue, and during Thursday’s mock exercise in Indy, the Boilermakers started as a No. 3 until the case was made they needed to hop Florida. 

I think there is a chance the Gators are the last No. 2 seed on Saturday, but the full resume doesn’t really support that. If we see UF as a No. 2, it will be because predictive metrics put it there (or Purdue lost on Friday night vs. Indiana). Gonzaga is another one that’s interesting to me. The resume metrics definitely put it as a 4-seed, and that Quad 3 loss at Portland I think is the differentiator to get Michigan State a slot above. Alabama is my final team on the line, getting there after winning that epic OT game at home over Arkansas on Wednesday.

David Cobb

There are good points to be made on both sides of the Houston vs. Iowa State debate for the fourth No. 1 seed. Iowa State has some better wins, but its losses were also worse. While the Cyclones own a head-to-head victory in Ames, the Cougars rate better in both resume and predictive metrics. If they were dead even on selection metrics, Iowa State would get the nod. But Houston’s edge in factors like Wins Above Bubble (WAB) and KenPom make it a deserving No. 1 seed at this juncture.

Kyle Boone

I felt the No. 1 seeds were the most straightforward when filling out my predictions. Michigan, Duke and Arizona are locks as of now, yes, and without much pushback, but I think Houston also has the edge for the fourth and final No. 1 seed by a margin wide enough for now to feel good about. It has a higher WAB, it rates better in the predictive metrics and doesn’t have the ugly losses like Iowa State has on its resume — even if ISU currently has a head-to-head win over the Coogs. 

Where things get squirrely for me is the No. 2 line. Iowa State and Illinois were the first No. 2 seeds for me, fairly comfortably, rounded out by Florida and Purdue. Not including UConn or Kansas in that bunch may draw some scrutiny, but Florida and Purdue both have more Quad 1 wins over UConn and also rate higher in the NET, KenPom and BartTorvik. This is where the margins are thin and where the next couple of weeks will prove to be paramount as teams gain separation.

Since we’re here predicting the future, I’ll close with one final prediction: The current No. 1 seeds I have — Michigan, Duke, Arizona, Houston — will also be the No. 1 seeds on Selection Sunday. But by Selection Sunday, UConn and Kansas will have supplanted two current teams on the No. 2 seed line. Virginia and St. John’s will also eventually play their way into  No. 3 seeds.

Isaac Trotter

Houston or Iowa State was my biggest pivot point for the final No. 1 seed. Both teams are 15-3 in Quad 1 or 2 games and separated by just a hair in Wins Above Bubble, signaling just how eerily similar these resumes are. Iowa State beat Houston at home in a nail-biter, and the Cyclones’ road win over Purdue is better than any of Houston’s best victories, but I gave the Cougars the slight nod because predictive metrics are a touch more bullish on what’s to come. Houston is second nationally on Bart Torvik; Iowa State is a smidge lower at seventh, largely because it got trucked by Kansas and posted poor offensive showings in losses to two teams (TCU and Cincinnati) that could miss the Big Dance.

Cameron Salerno

The No. 1 seeds are easy to predict. Michigan and Duke should be on opposite sides of the bracket, and the committee can put Houston and Arizona as the third and fourth No. 1 seeds in the bracket. The toughest decision for me was where to place Kansas, Florida and Illinois. I strongly considered putting Illinois on the No. 2 line, but ultimately went with Kansas. There is still a long way to go before Selection Sunday, but I feel confident that Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Houston will be staying on the No. 1 line next month. The rest of the bracket is up for debate.