Bracketology Bubble Watch: UCLA vs. USC in double bubble battle headlines on Tuesday

Tuesday night’s college basketball slate is light on big-time battles, with no game between ranked teams on the docket. But the schedule is nonetheless teeming with games featuring NCAA Tournament ramifications. 

Among them are a couple of “double bubble” battles. First up, Arizona State will put its faint bubble hopes on the line at TCU as the Horned Frogs try to protect their status as one of the “Last Four In” the projected field of 68. The Sun Devils need to be virtually perfect between now and Selection Sunday, and TCU cannot afford to take a Quad 2 loss.

Later on, USC and UCLA square off in a crosstown rivalry showdown with major Bracketology implications for both. The Trojans are on a three-game losing streak and desperately need a jolt if their injury-plagued campaign is going to result in an NCAA Tournament appearance. UCLA is trending up after a big win over Illinois, but the Bruins don’t have much margin for error.

Here is the full bubble breakdown ahead of Tuesday’s action.

Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s latest bracket at the Bracketology hub

All times below Eastern

Bubble teams in action Tuesday

Miami (Ohio)

at Eastern Michigan | 6:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
Entering the day: No. 11 seed (auto-bid)
Game status: Quad 3

Miami is 27-0 and just four wins away from an undefeated regular season. But because it has played zero Quad 1 games and just one Quad 2 game, its margin for error on the NCAA Tournament bubble remains minuscule. Eastern Michigan has dropped nine of its past 10 games and is just 10-18 (4-11 MAC). But the Eagles did beat Cincinnati 64-56 on the road in November, which suggests they may be at least somewhat capable of pulling an upset. 

Cincinnati

at No. 16 Texas Tech | 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
Entering the day: Out
Game status: Quad 1

Calling Cincinnati a bubble team at this point is a stretch. But if the Bearcats beat Texas Tech on the road, they could conceivably flirt with “Next Four Out” territory. Given that Wes Miller’s club is on a four-game streak, which includes an authoritative road win over Kansas, they are worth keeping an eye on down the stretch.

Indiana

vs. Northwestern | 7 p.m. (FS1)
Entering the day: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 3

Indiana’s resume can be interpreted in various ways. An easy argument for the Hoosiers is that they have three victories over projected NCAA Tournament teams, including wins over Purdue, UCLA and Wisconsin. But the grim reality is that IU is just 4-10 across Quad 1 and Quad 2. That is fewer Quad 1/2 victories than anyone else in the top 50 of the NET aside from Miami (Ohio).

TCU

vs. Arizona State | 9 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
Entering the day: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 2

TCU has won four of its past five to keep itself near the cut line. The Horned Frogs demonstrated their high-end potential in wins over Iowa State, Florida and Wisconsin earlier this season. You won’t find many bubble teams in any year with a more impressive trio of victories. Alas, a season-opening Quad 4 loss against New Orleans is serving as an anchor that is dragging the Horned Frogs down in the results-based metrics used by the committee.

Arizona State

at TCU | 9 p.m. (CBS Sports Network) 
Entering the day: Next Four Out
Game status: Quad 1

Arizona State is barely clinging to “Next Four Out” status after Saturday’s loss at Baylor dropped the Sun Devils to 14-13 (5-9 Big 12). But a Feb. 17 win over Texas Tech is doing just enough to keep them in the conversation for now. Make no mistake: Arizona State needs to be nearly perfect between now and Selection Sunday if it wants to go dancing.

Auburn

at Oklahoma | 9 p.m. (ESPNU)
Entering the day: No. 9 seed
Game status: Quad 1

It’s not a stretch to say that Auburn may have saved its season with a controversial, 75-74 win over Kentucky on Saturday. It snapped a five-game losing streak and flipped the Tigers (15-12, 6-8 SEC) back into the field. While seeing a team with this record projected in the field may be offensive to some, keep in mind that Auburn has the No. 1 NET strength of schedule, which is reflected in a top-40 Wins Above Bubble (WAB) ranking.

Missouri

vs. Tennessee | 9 p.m. (SEC Network)
Entering the day: No. 11 seed
Game status: Quad 1

Missouri could improve to 5-5 in Quad 1 games if it beats Tennessee. The Tigers are hovering in the low 40s of NCAA Tournament resume metrics, and they serve as a classic example of why you should mostly ignore a team’s NET ranking when evaluating the bubble. WAB is more important than NET. It’s a vital resume metric used by the committee, and the Tigers are 42nd in WAB while just 60th in NET. They don’t want to fall in WAB, but losing to Tennessee wouldn’t bring too harsh a penalty.

New Mexico

at Nevada | 11 p.m. (CBS Sports Network) 
Entering the day: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 1

This is one of two projected Quad 1 opportunities remaining for New Mexico over the final two weeks of the regular season, and it’s a game the Lobos really need. While they are 9-5 across Quads 1 and 2, seven of those wins are in Quad 2. First-year coach Eric Olen has a good 3-point shooting team that could be dangerous in the Big Dance. Victories over Santa Clara and VCU in nonconference play showed the Lobos can beat tournament-caliber opposition.

USC

at UCLA | 11 p.m. (FS1)
Entering the day: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 1

No one stumbled harder over the weekend than USC, which suffered a Quad 3 home loss to Oregon. Even with leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara back from a three-game injury absence, the Trojans couldn’t hang on to a late lead. After entering the weekend as a No. 10 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology, USC now has some ground to make up heading into Tuesday night’s rivalry showdown at UCLA.

UCLA

vs. USC |  11 p.m. (FS1)
Entering the day: No. 10 seed
Game status: Quad 2

A thrilling 95-94 overtime victory over Illinois on Saturday ensured the Bruins’ spot on the right side of the bubble for now. But UCLA needs to carry that momentum forward with a 3-1 finish over the season’s final two weeks if it wants to feel confident about its place in the field heading into the Big Ten Tournament. One factor working in UCLA’s favor is the absence of bad losses on its resume. Every loss is against a team that is either tournament-bound or in the mix.