The final Saturday of the regular season in college basketball is loaded with NCAA Tournament bubble implications as the Bracketology bubble picture remains in flux. There are so many variables at play with Selection Sunday looming just over a week away and the final at-large spots hanging in the balance.
Conference tournaments will inevitably throw a significant wrinkle into the picture. Bid thieves are likely to emerge, teams currently outside the field will inevitably put together deep runs, and a couple of teams that might look safe today will likely stumble down the stretch.
Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, we’re in for a loaded day. Among the highlights are a couple of SEC rivalry showdowns with massive stakes. Auburn’s late-season slide could get turned around in a big way with a road win over arch-rival Alabama. In the same evening window, Texas could earn a little at-large insurance with a win over a surging Oklahoma team.
In the Big Ten, Indiana and Ohio State will clash in a “double bubble” game. The situation is more dire for the Hoosiers than for the Buckeyes, but it’s a huge game for both. Here is the full rundown of the bubble picture.
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model’s latest bracket at the Bracketology hub
Last Four In
First Four Out
Next Four Out
Bubble teams in action Saturday
All times ET
Missouri
vs. No. 20 Arkansas | 12 p.m. (ESPN)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 10 seed
Game status: Quad 1
Missouri might be a little safer than its current position as a No. 10 seed in CBS Sports’ Bracketology suggests. The Tigers’ lackluster seeding projection is more a reflection of their predictive metrics than it is of their actual selection odds. With resume metrics squarely in the top 40, the Tigers are in solid shape. To feel 100% safe, the Tigers would be smart to either beat Arkansas or win at least a game at the SEC Tournament.
Clemson
vs. Georgia Tech | 12 p.m. (ACC Network)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 8 seed
Game status: Quad 4
If you’re one loss away from being on the bubble, then you’re on the bubble. Such is life for Clemson, which faces a textbook “landmine” spot here with a Quad 4 game against Georgia Tech. A loss could drop the Tigers from the low 30s in WAB ranking to around 40th. If you combined that with an early loss in the ACC Tournament, it could get tight for the Tigers, who have dropped five of their past six. But if Clemson simply takes care of business at home against a horrible opponent, it should have nothing to worry about.
Virginia Tech
at No. 13 Virginia | 12 p.m. (CW)
CBS Sports Bracketology: Next Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
Our model gives Virginia Tech a 17% chance of beating Virginia on the road. If the Hokies pull off the upset, it will do wonders for an at-large case that is a little flimsy entering the day. The crown jewel in Virginia Tech’s resume is a Jan. 31 triple-overtime home win over the Cavaliers. Completing a sweep would send the Hokies into the ACC Tournament with a somewhat realistic at-large path.
Cincinnati
at TCU | 2 p.m. (TNT)
CBS Sports Bracketology: Out
Game status: Quad 1
Cincinnati is in the midst of an impressive late-season surge, as the Bearcats have won six of their past seven games to resurrect a season that once looked lost. Head coach Wes Miller’s job may be hanging in the balance as this team tries to thread the needle and get back into the at-large discussion. It will take a win here and a long stay in the Big 12 Tournament, but the Bearcats aren’t done yet.
TCU
vs. Cincinnati | 2 p.m. (TNT)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 10 seed
Game status: Quad 2
TCU is in fantastic shape and might be safe already after picking up yet another marquee win at Texas Tech on Tuesday night. But to be 100% safe and clear of the potential bid thief surge, the Horned Frogs would be advised to add one more victory before Selection Sunday. A little insurance never hurt anyone.
SMU
at Florida State | 2 p.m. (ACC Network)
CBS Sports Bracketology: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 1
SMU has slipped to the Last Four In entering Saturday’s fringe Quad 1 game at Florida State. After three straight losses, the Mustangs are on the rocks and look like the epitome of a bubble team. With selection metrics in the 40s across the board, SMU is living in the danger zone.
NC State
vs. Stanford | 2:15 p.m. (CW)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 8 seed
Game status: Quad 2
NC State has dropped five of its past six games and was embarrassingly uncompetitive in lopsided losses to Louisville, Virginia and Duke. This is coach Will Wade’s first season, and that context is important since he inherited a 12-19 program. But it’s nonetheless a little surprising to see the Wolfpack living life on the bubble after an 18-6 start. A loss here and a quick exit from the ACC Tournament could spell trouble.
Stanford
at NC State | 2:15 p.m. (CW)
CBS Sports Bracketology: Next Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
Envisioning a scenario where Stanford makes the NCAA Tournament takes some creativity. But a win at NC State would be the fifth Quad 1 win for the Cardinal and improve them to 9-8 over the first two quadrants. A trio of Quad 3 losses is a problem, but perhaps that could be overcome with a deep ACC Tournament run and some backsliding from other bubble teams.
Cal
at Wake Forest | 4 p.m. (ACC Network)
CBS Sports Bracketology: Last Four In
Game status: Quad 1
California’s continued presence in the Last Four In/First Four Out range is an example of how WAB is now king. The Bears are 64th in the NET and 69th at KenPom. But they are 47th in WAB, which means they are still in the mix. Having great predictive metrics would help, and Cal won’t have that box checked on Selection Sunday. But if the Bears nudge their WAB ranking closer to 40th, an at-large bid is still possible. Beating Wake Forest and winning two games in the ACC Tournament would help.
New Mexico
at Utah State | 4 p.m.
CBS Sports Bracketology: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
New Mexico has dropped two of its past three games, eroding the viability of its at-large hopes. A win here would resurrect those hopes, but the path would still narrow. The good news for the Lobos is that the Mountain West Tournament is going to be a free-for-all. An automatic bid is squarely within the realm of possibility.
Indiana
at Ohio State | 5:30 p.m. (FOX)
CBS Sports Bracketology: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
Indiana’s resume is not in a great place entering its regular season finale. The Hoosiers do have wins against projected NCAA Tournament teams Purdue, UCLA and Wisconsin. But overall, IU is just 5-12 across Quad 1 and Quad 2. No other high-major teams in the at-large realm have such a paltry sum of victories against decent opposition. That is reflected in a No. 48 WAB ranking, which likely wouldn’t be good enough to get the Hoosiers into the field. A win at Ohio State would move the needle.
Ohio State
vs. Indiana | 5:30 p.m. (FOX)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 9 seed
Game status: Quad 2
Ohio State is getting healthy and playing better at the right time. Those two things are probably related. The Buckeyes finally secured a marquee victory on Sunday against Purdue and backed it up with a 94-62 road beatdown of Penn State on Wednesday. This team can reach 20 victories and dramatically reduce any lingering doubt about its at-large credentials by holding serve against Indiana.
Texas A&M
at LSU | 6 p.m. (SEC Network)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 10 seed
Game status: Quad 1
Texas A&M’s shortcoming appears to be in the “three best wins” department, which is something the committee might look into. In terms of victories that count as “Quad 1A” wins, the Aggies have road wins over Georgia, Texas and Auburn. But A&M has not slayed any of the SEC’s giants. A road win over LSU would do nothing to solve that issue, but it would reduce stress levels entering the SEC Tournament.
Auburn
at No. 16 Alabama | 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)
CBS Sports Bracketology: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
Auburn’s NCAA Tournament resume is one of the most polarizing topics of this year’s Bracketology cycle. At 16-14 (7-10 SEC), the Tigers, according to some, are the symbol of all that’s wrong with college basketball. How could a team that’s barely above .500 even be considered? Here’s how: the Tigers beat St. John’s, NC State, Arkansas, Florida, Texas and Kentucky. If they add a victory against Alabama, that would be seven wins over projected NCAA Tournament teams, including a handful of really good ones.
Oklahoma
at Texas | 8:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
CBS Sports Bracketology: First Four Out
Game status: Quad 1
Wait, when did Oklahoma get here? That’s an understandable reaction to the Sooners showing up in a Bubble Watch. OU was once 11-12 (1-9 SEC). Now it has won five of its past seven games. Reaching the Big Dance is still a long shot, but if the Sooners won here and then made it to the semifinals of the SEC Tournament, they would have 20 victories, including an impressive collection of Quad 1 wins. The potential volume of Quad 1 opportunities ahead is an asset for OU, though it also means the road will be tough.
Texas
vs. Oklahoma | 8:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
CBS Sports Bracketology: No. 9 seed
Game status: Quad 2
Texas has dropped three of four over a tough portion of its schedule and needs another victory before Selection Sunday in order to feel safer. A few weeks ago, the season-ending home game vs. Oklahoma would have looked like a relatively easy win. But the Sooners are surging as of late and will be highly motivated to exact revenge for Texas’ 79-69 win at OU from Jan. 31.
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