Bowl projections: Miami, Texas Tech slide in College Football Playoff race

Four interceptions from Carson Beck and a shaky, unprepared start doomed Miami on Friday night as one of the nation’s College Football Playoff frontrunners took a hard fall in Week 8, losing to Louisville in a stunning upset.

Miami drops out of our latest top-four projection, along with Texas Tech following its 26-22 loss at Arizona State. The Red Raiders’ setback adds even more chaos to the Big 12 race, where nearly a dozen teams remain mathematically alive for the conference title at midseason.

Several programs took advantage of the shakeups, including No. 12 Georgia Tech, No. 17 Vanderbilt and No. 13 Notre Dame — each of which picked up key victories to strengthen their postseason cases.

Georgia Tech won as a road underdog at Duke to stay unbeaten in ACC play, Vanderbilt knocked off No. 10 LSU and Notre Dame handled No. 20 USC. Alabama held its spot as the projected SEC champion after earning its fourth straight win over a ranked opponent, beating No. 11 Tennessee. And with ninth-ranked Georgia’s victory over No. 5 Ole Miss, only fourth-ranked Texas A&M remains unbeaten in the SEC.

College Football Playoff 

Quarterfinals 

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Projected College Football Playoff Field breakdown

1. Ohio State (projected Big Ten champion): The Buckeyes pitched a shutout at Wisconsin, and quarterback Julian Sayin strengthened his Heisman case with several touchdown passes as Ohio State cruised to another lopsided Big Ten win. It doesn’t appear the nation’s top team will be tested until late November, when it visits Michigan.

2. Alabama (projected SEC champion): Any steakhouse in Tuscaloosa would be happy to give Zabien Brown his choice of cut this weekend after his 99-yard interception return for a touchdown as time expired in the second quarter against Tennessee. The play swung momentum for Alabama, deflating the Vols’ upset bid before the Crimson Tide held on late. When the dust settles, Alabama could have the nation’s best résumé by early December with several wins over ranked opponents. The Tide extended their streak to four straight victories over top-25 teams with the win.

3. Indiana: The playoff selection committee likely won’t penalize Curt Cignetti’s team much if the Hoosiers enter conference championship weekend unbeaten before falling to Ohio State. At worst, Indiana should be positioned at No. 3 or No. 4, with two signature top-10 wins. The Hoosiers started slow coming off the Oregon game but responded with a pair of second-quarter touchdowns in the final six minutes of the first half against Michigan State to take control.

4. Georgia: Take a bow, Lawson Luckie. The Georgia tight end caught three touchdown passes, including a 7-yarder midway through the fourth quarter, as the Bulldogs erased a nine-point deficit to beat Ole Miss. Credit Georgia’s defense for making key stops in the second half after the Rebels scored on their first five possessions. Still, that unit hasn’t been playing at an elite level and must improve. Georgia owns two wins over top-15 opponents with a chance for up to three more.

5. Georgia Tech (projected ACC champion): What happens if the Yellow Jackets enter rivalry weekend against Georgia ranked inside the top 10 and sitting at 11-0? They’d be playing for a first-round bye and potential top seed with wins over Georgia and another in Charlotte as ACC champions. That scenario looks more realistic after the victory at Duke.

6. Oregon: The Ducks erupted for 42 first-half points at Rutgers, a strong rebound from the loss to Indiana. Oregon should reach 11 regular-season wins with relative ease unless USC gives its defense trouble next month at Autzen Stadium. Barring Ohio State or Indiana losing twice, the Ducks will likely have championship weekend off before hosting a first-round playoff game.

7. Texas Tech (projected Big 12 champion): Despite rallying from 15 points down late in the fourth quarter to take the lead on the road, Texas Tech gave up a critical fourth-down conversion and couldn’t stop Arizona State in the red zone, leading to its first loss. The Big 12 remains wide open, and in this scenario, the Red Raiders must win out and capture the league title game to stay in contention.

8. Texas A&M: The Aggies handled Arkansas on the road to stay unbeaten, setting up key matchups over the next two weeks against ranked LSU and Missouri teams to pair with their earlier win over Notre Dame. Texas A&M scored on seven of nine possessions against the Razorbacks but allowed more than 500 yards of total offense, including two 100-yard rushers.

9. Miami: The Hurricanes suffered Week 8’s most stunning loss, falling to Louisville at home after an early 14-point deficit and four interceptions from Carson Beck. It’s an ugly loss for a double-digit favorite and leaves Miami no longer in control of its ACC destiny if Georgia Tech and Virginia keep winning. Our projection has the winner of SMU-Miami in November facing the Yellow Jackets in the ACC title game. Virginia would need to lose two of its final five conference contests for that to happen.

10. Ole Miss: Why the big drop after the Rebels’ first loss? A trip to Oklahoma next week looms large, and a loss to the Sooners would eliminate any margin for error in November. There are no other ranked opponents on the schedule after that game, a 10-2 finish would leave their only top-25 win back in Week 5 against LSU.

11. Notre Dame: Will this spot go to a fifth SEC team or 10-win Notre Dame? Strength of schedule will matter if Vanderbilt, Tennessee or Texas is in the mix. Saturday night’s win over USC was pivotal for the Irish, who needed it to stay in the conversation.

12. USF: After its win over FAU, USF sits atop the American alongside Tulane and Navy. The Midshipmen face a tough upcoming stretch against North Texas, Notre Dame and USF, while Tulane visits Memphis on Nov. 7. The next few weeks should clarify a tight race for the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six berth.