Hello and happy Sunday, all. Hopefully you’ve been riding with me the last few days here, because we’re on a heater. Between Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, I went 8-1 with several plus-money plays in there. The only miss came in Game 3 of the NLCS, when I had Shohei Ohtani with 3+ hits plus runs plus RBI, saying I had a feeling he was about to have a monster game. He tripled and scored, but that was it. I feel one hit or run or RBI shy. And one day shy. He did explode. The following day. But, hey, getting eight out of nine is still a great run.
Let’s keep the good times rolling.
Lines are courtesy of Caesars.
Mariners (+105) vs. Blue Jays
The Mariners offense got some good swings off of starter Trey Yesavage in Game 2, tagging him for five runs on four hits and three walks in four innings. Mariners starter Logan Gilbert wasn’t great, either, but he was coming back on short rest after a relief appearance full of stressful pitches in the 15-inning marathon that was Game 5 of the ALDS. This time around, he’s on an extra day of rest. In his career, you can shave a full run off his ERA when he gets an extra day of rest.
Further, I trust the Mariners’ bullpen more than the Blue Jays’ and there have to be concerns surrounding George Springer’s knee after taking a 96 mph heater to it in Game 5, causing him to leave the game.
I’ve got the Mariners winning this one and going to their first-ever World Series.
Julio Rodríguez over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-125)
Mariners manager Dan Wilson reconfigured his batting order for Game 5 of the ALCS and it worked, so my expectation is he sticks with it. Randy Arozarena is struggling so badly that he shouldn’t go back to the leadoff spot and that means Julio stays put. Yes, Julio went 0 for 7 in Games 4 and 5 combined, but he’s still had some big swings in the playoffs, including first-inning home runs in both Games 2 and 3. In Game 2, it was a three-run homer against Blue Jays starter Yesavage. In Game 6, it’s the same matchup. He had a hit and a run in Game 1, too, also in Toronto. Also, keep in mind that with Julio being in the leadoff spot, he has Cal Raleigh hitting behind him. We could well see a single and a home run to start the game and we’d be cashing this in the first inning.
It’s at the point where Vlad is a must-tail. He’s been amazing in the playoffs, hitting .457/.524/.971 with three doubles, five home runs, 11 RBI, nine runs and six walks. We had a ticket on him getting two total bases in Game 5 and he doubled in his first at-bat. Easy cash. The Mariners intentionally walked him twice after that. My expectation at this point is they aren’t going to let him beat them. He might not get an intentional walk, but he’ll be pitched around. He’ll draw at least one walk.
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