Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds, Game 7 prediction: Everything to know with World Series spot on the line

The American League Championship Series will be decided Monday night at Rogers Centre, where the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Seattle Mariners for Game 7. The winner will take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series, which will begin Friday in Los Angeles if the Mariners win Game 7, or Friday in Toronto if the Blue Jays win Game 7.

“This is what we sign up for,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said after his team’s Game 6 win. “Whenever you can play for Game 7 to go to the World Series — it sounds kind of cool to say it — but this is why we sacrifice everything. It’s why players sacrifice everything. Again, it’s special and unique, but you have to look at it as a game.”

Monday will be the first ever Game 7 in Mariners’ history. They have never been to the World Series, and, prior to this series, they had never won more than two games in the ALCS. This is the closest the Mariners have ever been to winning a pennant. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, last went to the World Series in 1993. That was the second of their back-to-back championships.

Here now is what you need to know going into Monday night’s win-and-go-to-the-World-Series game in Toronto.

Where to watch Game 7

Date: Monday, Oct. 20 | Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
Location: Rogers Centre (Toronto)
TV channel: Fox | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Probable pitchers: RHP George Kirby (SEA) vs. Shane Bieber (TOR)
Odds: TOR -130, SEA +110 | O/U: 7.5 (via BetMGM)

How they got here

This has been a back-and-forth series. The Mariners won Games 1 and 2. The Blue Jays won Game 3 and 4. The Mariners made a late-inning comeback to win Game 5. The Blue Jays then dominated Game 6 to force Game 7. Here’s a quick series recap:

Game 1 (SEA 3, TOR 1): Cal Raleigh’s solo homer tied the game 1-1 in the sixth, then Jorge Polanco singled to give Seattle the lead. He singled in an insurance run later in the game. Bryce Miller held the Blue Jays to one run in six innings despite pitching on short rest. A tired Mariners’ pitching staff stood tall in Game 1.

Game 2 (SEA 10, TOR 3): Julio Rodríguez clubbed a three-run homer in the first inning, then, after the Blue Jays rallied to knot the game up 3-3, Polanco clobbered a go-ahead three-run homer. The Mariners piled on against the Toronto bullpen in the late innings. Starter Logan Gilbert went only three innings. Three Seattle relievers threw two innings apiece to finish the game. 

Game 3 (TOR 13, SEA 4): Once again, the Mariners took an early lead, this time 2-0 on Rodríguez’s first inning homer. It was all Blue Jays after that. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had four hits, including two doubles and a home run. Addison Barger, Andrés Giménez, and George Springer all went deep as well. Game 3 was a laugher by the fifth inning.

Game 4 (TOR 8, SEA 2): Giménez hit an important third inning home run for the second straight game and the Mariners again did a number on the Seattle bullpen. Guerrero hit another home run, too. Future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer had a turn-back-the-clock night and held the Mariners to two runs in 5 ⅔ innings. He struck out five.

Game 5 (SEA 6, TOR 2): Six outs away from a 3-2 series lead, Schneider went to struggling lefty Brendon Little in the eighth inning, and he served up a game-tying homer to Raleigh and walked the next two batters. Seranthony Domínguez came in and later served up a go-ahead grand slam to Eugenio Suárez. It is, to date, the biggest swing in Mariners’ history. 

Game 6 (TOR 6, SEA 2): Three errors and three inning-ending double plays (in three consecutive innings) opened the door for the Blue Jays and doomed the Mariners. Guerrero hit his third home run of the series and Barger drove in three runs, two on a homer. Rookie Trey Yesavage rebounded from his rocky Game 2 start to strike out seven in 5 ⅔ innings of two-run ball.

Pitching plans

For the Mariners, it’s pretty simple. They want to go Kirby to Bryan Woo to Andrés Muñoz, and ideally that’s it. If they have to use Gabe Speier against a pocket of lefties, they will, and Matt Brash and Eduard Bazardo loom in righty matchup situations. That’s the master plan though: Kirby to Woo to Muñoz, with the latter two potentially combining for four innings.

“I think he’s the guy that we want in that situation and he’s thrown the ball well and it’s his spot,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said about the decision to start Kirby in Game 7. “George will be the starter and expect to have a lot of — like, all hands on deck down there in the bullpen and ready to go at any point.”

Woo was Seattle’s ace during the regular season, though a September pectoral injury sidelined him for the Division Series and has limited him to bullpen work in the ALCS. He made his first career relief appearance in Game 5 and allowed a run in two innings. It was his first game action in almost exactly a month. Woo figures to be more comfortable in relief the second time around.

The Blue Jays hit Kirby very hard in Game 3 (eight runs in four innings), though Wilson gave him a surprisingly long leash, and that won’t happen in Game 7. There’s no time to let a starter figure it out. It should be noted Bazardo threw two innings but only 15 pitches in Game 6. Brash threw 21 pitches in his inning. Game 7 would be the second of back-to-back days for them. 

Muñoz, surprisingly, has pitched once in the last week, and that one appearance (Game 5 on Friday) was only 11 pitches. He is about as fresh as a reliever can be this time of year. Speier last pitched in Game 5 as well, so he’ll go into Game 7 having the last two days off. Other than Bazardo and Brash, Seattle’s late-inning relievers are fairly well-rested going into Monday.

As for the Blue Jays, they’re starting Bieber in Game 7. He was excellent in Game 3, allowing two runs in six innings, and retiring 17 of the final 19 batters he faced. The Blue Jays will let it ride with Bieber as long as possible Monday. The bullpen behind him is a bit more up in the air, especially since closer Jeff Hoffman threw two innings and 35 pitches in Game 6.

I fully expect Hoffman to be available in Game 7. Maybe not for six outs again, but available, and the question is how effective will he be the day after a two-inning outing? Louie Varland, who seems to be Schneider’s most trusted setup man, has worked a lot this series and this postseason in general, appearing in nine of Toronto’s 10 games. Here’s his recent workload:

Game 7 would be four appearances in five days with two of the previous three being multiple innings. Varland’s been excellent, he’s taken on this big postseason workload with no real issues, but it is a lot to ask. He’ll be riding on postseason adrenaline if and when he takes the mound in Game 7. The smart money is on Varland being the first guy out of the bullpen behind Bieber.

Little and Domínguez, two trusted setup men during the regular season, stumbled badly in the eighth inning of Game 5 and have had a rocky few weeks. Game 7s are all hands on deck. Toronto, moreso than the Mariners, may use one of their starters in relief in Game 7, specifically Kevin Gausman and/or Scherzer. Both will be available in relief.

“Cleated up and ready to go,” Gausman said about his Game 7 availability following his Game 5 start.

At least on paper, Toronto’s pitching situation is much more precarious than Seattle’s. The middle relief has been shaky all year and both Varland and Hoffman are coming off multiple inning appearances in Game 6, which could impact their effectiveness in Game 7. Throwing starters (i.e. Gausman or Scherzer) into the mix adds to the unpredictability because it’s an unfamiliar role.

Bieber to Varland to Hoffman is the master plan for the Blue Jays and that will likely require at least six innings from Bieber. Any less than that, and we’re talking about Domínguez, Gausman, Little, Scherzer, and maybe guys like Braydon Fisher and Mason Fluharty getting involved. Toronto’s bullpen has been hit or miss this postseason. They need it to hit in Game 7.

Game 7 X-factors

Will the Mariners pitch to Vlad?
It’s getting to the point where Seattle might be best served putting up four fingers, and walking Guerrero rather than pitch to him, even with the bases empty. Vlad Jr. is 9 for 22 (.409) with three doubles and three home runs in the ALCS, and that’s even after going 0 for 7 in Games 1 and 2. Overall, he’s hitting .463/.532/1.000 with six home runs and two strikeouts this postseason.

“I mean, he’s a good hitter,” Wilson said after Guerrero hit this third home run of the ALCS in Game 6. “You have to find a way to not let him beat you in some way. He was able to swing it again tonight. He got a home run to expand the lead a little bit. He’s a tough hitter. He’s someone that you have to take note of and that’s for us to do going forward.”

Giving out free baserunners is rarely a smart move, especially in a win-or-go-home situation like Game 7, but Guerrero is a special case, especially with the way he’s swinging right now. It’s hard to envision Vlad Jr. having a big game and the Mariners winning. Feels like it’s one or the other. Taking the bat out of Guerrero’s hands in Game 7 may be the winning move for Seattle.

Seattle’s sloppiness
The Blue Jays won Game 6 because they played well, first and foremost, and also because the Mariners made careless mistakes and were sloppy in general. Rodríguez and Suárez made errors on back-to-back plays in the second inning that led to runs. JP Crawford got a bad read on Leo Rivas’ third inning single, and could only advance to second. Raleigh threw a ball into left field.

Seattle’s sloppinness is not a one-game issue either. In Game 4, Rivas got picked off first base with the Mariners down 3-1 in the third inning, and Naylor got thrown out at third base for the final out of the sixth inning with the Mariners down 5-2. There is a fine line between aggressiveness and carelessness, and the Mariners have been on the wrong side of that line in the ALCS.

With their speed and contact skills, the Blue Jays are built to give the opponent the opportunity to make mistakes, and then take advantage of those mistakes. If the Mariners continue to give away free baserunners and an extra 90 feet, the Blue Jays will make them pay. We’ve seen it all series. Securing the baseball and not making outs in the bases is imperative for Seattle.

“This is a team that has done the little things all season,” Wilson said after Game 6. “It’s also a team that has bounced back a lot, and this is a chance for us to do that again, and we’ll do it tomorrow night in Game 7.”

Springer’s knee

Springer exited Game 5 after taking a 95.6 mph sinker to the right kneecap. Tests showed only a contusion, no fracture, and he was back in the lineup in Game 6. Springer did not look comfortable at all though. He grimaced after almost every swing and even hunched over and favored the knee a few times. Springer went 0 for 4 with a strikeout and mostly weak contact Sunday.

“He was in good spirits yesterday. I think just getting some reassurance with the CT scan coming back,” Schneider said about Springer’s knee prior to Game 6. “… I was checking in with him via text this morning. He basically told me to shut up. Did the same thing when he got in today. He’ll be ready to go.”

Guerrero is the star but Springer is the catalyst for Toronto’s offense. He had a marvelous regular season, hitting .309/.399/.560 with 32 home runs, and he was 10 for 39 (.256) with five doubles and three homers this postseason prior to the 0-fer in Game 6. When he’s right, Springer is a difference-maker, and he didn’t look right Sunday. That knee is barking.

Springer’s knee and effectiveness ties into how the Mariners will approach Vlad Jr., because if Springer’s no on base, it will be much easier to pitch around Guerrero. It’s sort of a double whammy. If Springer doesn’t perform, it could also lessen Guerrero’s impact because he’ll be pitched around. We know Springer’s hurting. The question is can he perform anyway?

Prediction

The Mariners have (or at least appear to have) the advantage on the mound going into Game 7, though they’ve shot themselves in the foot too often with careless mistakes, and that Toronto offense is really good. Plus it’s not like Bieber, Varland, and Hoffman are pushovers. The prediction here is the Blue Jays score enough in the first five innings against Kirby, and Varland and Hoffman ride adrenaline to finish line. The Blue Jays win Game 7 and their first pennant in over three decades.