That hot streak came to a screeching halt. After having gone 8-1 in the previous three days of Best Bets here, I missed on three picks in Game 6 of the ALCS. I’ll take the blame and wear it with toughness, though, because through that pain comes the pleasure of the best two words in sports: Game 7.
Yes, bring it to us.
The Blue Jays haven’t been to the World Series since 1993. They are trying to become the first team since 1996 to start a series down 0-2 at home and then come back to win. The Mariners have never been to the World Series, making them the only of the current 30 teams to never win a pennant. It’s all on the line Monday in Toronto.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Over 7.5 total runs (-105)
One of the things that has made this series fun is how unpredictable it’s been on a game-to-game basis. My expectation is Game 7 is similarly difficult to handicap, especially given that there will be extra starting pitchers in the bullpen (such as Max Scherzer and Luis Castillo) and both teams will be desperate to avoid a big deficit.
We aren’t talking about loaded pitching staffs in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, though. We are talking about high-powered offenses that have both feasted at times through the series and have seen an awful lot of the opposing bullpen.
Blue Jays starter Shane Bieber threw really well after a two-run homer in the first inning in Game 3, but I like the Mariners getting a look at him again with such a quick turnaround. Also in Game 3, Mariners starter George Kirby was tattooed for eight runs on eight hits in four innings. His splits say he’s much worse on the road, too.
My expectation is both starters get touched up a little bit early and they’re gone before the middle innings. And then it’s piecing things together with the bullpens, neither or which are overly reliable at this point in the series.
Plus, we don’t even need a high-scoring game. A 5-3 final score — or 6-2 like in Game 6 — cashes this over. The only game in the series so far that came in under eight runs was Game 1.
It would be foolish to not grab a Vlad Jr. prop at this point. I went with him drawing at least one walk in Game 6 and, for some reason, the Mariners never did (maybe they would have in his last plate appearance, when he was hit with a pitch). So far in the 2025 playoffs, he’s 18 for 39 with three doubles, six home runs, 12 RBI and 11 runs in 10 games.
I was tempted to go with a walk again, but I like him swinging a bit better.
After a slow start to the playoffs, Naylor has been on fire. He’s 15 for 31 with two doubles and three home runs in his last eight games now. He did go hitless in Game 3 this series with former teammate Shane Bieber on the hill, but it was the first time they’d ever faced each other in actual game action. I like the lefty-righty matchup here with Naylor now knowing first-hand what Bieber’s stuff looks like from the batter’s box. Plus, he’s in an RBI spot in the batting order and if he gets on base to start an inning, we know he’s a stolen base threat to move into scoring position.
Mariners +105
I’m sticking with them. The line moved from -105 to +105 within a half hour of Game 6 ending. That means a bunch of bettors jumped on the Jays. My guess is that’s for two reasons: First off, the Jays are at home and, secondly, they won Game 6 and were in full control the entire game.
For me, I like how the Mariners have performed every time this postseason when it looked like they were in trouble. After they lost Game 1 of the ALDS, they won Game 2 with Tarik Skubal starting for the Tigers. Then they won Game 3 before losing Game 4 — after blowing a lead — and having to deal with Skubal in an elimination game. They survived that, but the pitching looked so decimated from the 15-inning marathon of ALDS Game 5 that they were at a severe disadvantage heading into the ALCS. They won both games in Toronto. They got punched in the mouth in Games 3 and 4 and were facing a deficit in Game 5 in the eighth inning, but exploded to win that game. Their backs are against the wall again in Game 7. I’ve got them responding.
Add Comment