Blue-Chip Ratio 2025: These 4 college football teams outside mix could break barrier, chase national title

Fans of schools outside the 2025 Blue-Chip Ratio might want to turn away — there’s only 18 teams capable of getting through the College Football Playoff and winning a national title this season based on talent. Those in need of a BCR explainer can get it here, but in short, programs who have stacked multiple talented recruiting classes are the ones with the best shot at finishing No. 1.

Elite rosters win at the highest level. and only three teams in the playoff era have won a national championship with a BCR of 60% or less: 2023 Michigan (54%), 2016 Clemson (52%) and 2013 Florida State (53%). If any of these five programs we’re about mention take the throne this season, they would do so with a BCR of less than 50%, which would mark an unprecedented achievement.

Parity will continue to increase with revenue sharing and legislation coming to NIL, but don’t expect those taking shortcuts or going cheap on their roster to win at the highest level. There’s four programs who have a shot in 2025 to buck the Blue-Chip Ratio trend and crack the code — if all goes according to plan with a few breaks here and there …

Odds to make the College Football Playoff provided via DraftKings Sportsbook.

This program has signed a top-five portal class every cycle of the transfer era, dating back to 2022, according to 247Sports. That speaks to Lane Kiffin’s updated recruiting philosophy that he’s going to welcome as many depth fill-ins and potential impact players on the free agent market as he can to compliment yearly prep signing hauls. He has signed blue-chippers, too, including former five-star Suntarine Perkins, who’s entering his junior season, but most of the Rebels’ two-deep in 2025 is made up of transfers. Talented quarterback Austin Simmons is one of the few who’s been developed in Oxford since his freshman year and will man the controls. Last year’s roster, at least on paper, felt like the year Ole Miss should’ve made real noise at a title contender with first-rounders (and former transfers) Walter Nolan and Jaxson Dart. Odds to make CFP: +175

Shane Beamer didn’t come to South Carolina to “go 7-5 every year”, according to his remarks this week at SEC Media Days. He believes this program can win big and do something that has never been done in school history. When you have two of college football’s top players returning — quarterback LaNorris Sellers and former five-star recruit Dylan Stewart at defensive end — you feel good about your chances, especially after your team finished a couple plays away from its first playoff appearance last season. And while staff continuity doesn’t factor into the BCR, defensive coordinator Clayton White is back for his fifth season. Believe it or not, that’s one of the longest tenures of any current SEC DC. Getting there for the Gamecocks might actually be more difficult than winning multiple games in the playoff, by the way. South Carolina faces six teams during SEC who are inside our post-spring top 25 cumulative rankings. Odds to make CFP: +500

With reports indicating the Red Raiders are taking the field this fall with a $28 million roster enhanced through significant portal additions, a certain level of heightened expectations come with that. However, nothing Texas Tech faces during the regular season would compare to what Joey McGuire’s team would have to endure through multiple rounds of the playoff if winning a national championship is the end game. We saw that unfold in the first year of the expanded playoff after the Big 12 and ACC champions each lost their opening postseason games to Texas, a team loaded with 12 players who were taken in the 2025 NFL Draft. The Red Raiders hope quarterback Behren Morton will be one of the nation’s best and pulls this team toward the playoff conversation. Odds to make CFP: +450

Jeff Brohm’s team is the lone squad in the ACC most-often mentioned in dark horse playoff conversations this offseason in speaking with sources around the league. Nothing against Florida State, Syracuse, SMU or a few of the others expected to contend in the conference not included in the BCR, but the Cardinals are the only team perceived by peers to be a legitimate threat to unseat Clemson or Miami at the top. Louisville unearthed a looked over gem of a recruit in Isaac Brown, a former three-star who rushed for 1,173 yards and 11 touchdowns as a freshman last fall. He’ll be paired with USC transfer quarterback Miller Moss, Louisville’s third consecutive portal starter under center. 

And while Clemson’s wideout room has generated the most buzz this summer, Louisville’s redshirt senior pair of Dacari Collins and Caullin Lacy should be considerably explosive. Getting to the dance is the goal for the Cardinals, who play the Tigers and Hurricanes during the regular season with a chance to show out. Odds to make CFP: +300