Bills vs. Falcons odds, picks, ‘Monday Night Football’ predictions, best bets from proven model

The Buffalo Bills (4-1) will aim to get back into the win column when they visit the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) on ‘Monday Night Football’ in NFL Week 6. Josh Allen and the Bills were upset at home their last time out, falling 23-20 to the New England Patriots. Meanwhile, the Falcons are coming out of their bye week, mostly recently defeating the Washington Commanders 34-27 in Week 4. Safety Demar Hamlin (pectoral) and linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) are out for Buffalo, while tight end Dalton Kincaid (oblique) and receiver Curtis Samuel (neck/ribs) are questionable. Receiver Darnell Mooney (hamstring) has been ruled out for Atlanta. 

Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium is set for 7:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Falcons odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 50. Before making any Falcons vs. Bills picks, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 41-21 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has zeroed in on Falcons vs. Bills. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bills vs. Falcons on Monday Night Football:

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo is just 2-3-0 ATS this season, but is 6-1 straight up in its last seven games against NFC opponents. The offense is averaging 395.8 total yards per game, with Allen throwing for 243.4 yards per outing with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. The defense has struggled against the rush and is allowing 145.6 yards on the ground, which could spell trouble going up against Bijan Robinson. Buffalo has been solid at defending the pass, however, and the Falcons could be in trouble if Michael Penix Jr. has an off night. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Falcons can cover

Atlanta should be well-rested after the bye and will be playing at home, where the Falcons were able to win and cover the spread against a tough Commanders team. The Falcons defense has been one of the best through four games and has allowed the fewest yards per game (244.0) in the league. The hosts have played up to tough competition in the Vikings and Commanders this season, which gives them upset potential against a Bills team coming off of a stunning loss to the Patriots. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

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How to make Falcons vs. Bills picks

For Monday Night Football in NFL Week 6, the model is leaning over the total, and also says one side of the spread hits in more than 70% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Bills vs. Falcons, and which side of the spread hits more than 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Bills spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 41-21 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.