Big Ten storylines, picks: Ohio State even better than last year’s title team?

Is Ohio State better than last year’s national title team?

In one sense, it’s an impossible question to answer. Last year, Ohio State won the national title, so unless this year’s team does the same, it can’t be. And if it does, it’s essentially the same.

In another sense, last year Ohio State lost twice during the regular season, including to Michigan. It’s hard to imagine this year’s Buckeyes matching that loss total. I’d also imagine there are some Ohio State fans who will consider the 2025 Buckeyes better than 2024, just so long as they beat Michigan — regardless of a national title. 

It’s a nebulous debate that’s difficult to answer, but there’s certainly statistical evidence suggesting this year’s team is better. Let’s start by comparing the 2024 Ohio State offense to the one we’ve seen in 2025.

As you can see, the Buckeyes are more efficient on offense, scoring more points per drive with a higher success rate. They’re also turning the ball over less frequently and doing a better job of avoiding negative plays. However, not everything is better. This year’s offense isn’t nearly as explosive, with the drop-off coming primarily in the rushing attack. The Buckeyes are also scoring fewer points in the red zone. While that’s offset a bit by reaching the red zone far more frequently, the lack of explosive plays is a factor there.

Last year, Ohio State scored 24 touchdowns of at least 20 yards, including seven on the ground. This season, Ohio State has nine such touchdowns, and all have come via the pass.

Here’s how things look on the defensive side of the ball.

Once again, we see improvement, if not across the board. Last year’s defense was more effective at getting pressure on the opposing QB, and did so without having to blitz. That hasn’t been the case this year, but Ohio State is also allowing fewer points per possession. We’ve seen a slight drop in EPA per dropback (a likely result of the pressure), but an enormous uptick in EPA per rush, as that’s gone from 0.12 last season to 0.29 this year.

The Buckeyes have also allowed explosive plays less frequently and have tightened up in the red zone.

If you’re wondering if Ohio State playing four playoff games last season skews the numbers in the wrong direction for the 2024 season, first of all, that’s a great question. I’m proud of you for considering it. It shows intelligence on your part. Pat yourself on the back.

The answer is yes and no. Ohio State’s offense improved in its playoff games last season, scoring 3.21 points per possession compared to 3.09 in the regular season. Defensively is where things change considerably. The Buckeyes allowed 1.67 points per possession (still pretty damn good) in four playoff games after allowing only 0.92 in the regular season. I will point out, though, that the 0.92 in the regular season last year is still worse than the 0.76 they’re allowing this year. Also, the majority of the last postseason’s damage was done by Notre Dame in the title game. The Irish managed 2.56 points per possession that game, while Tennessee, Oregon and Texas put up 1.44.

So the evidence suggests that, statistically, 2025 Ohio State is better than 2024 Ohio State in plenty of key areas. However, the part that makes it difficult for me to declare a definitive answer one way or the other is that these teams are different stylistically.

On defense, the Buckeyes went from Jim Knowles to Matt Patricia. The philosophies and approaches differ, which leads to some stats looking better and others worse. At the end of the day, the unit remains elite. On offense, last year’s team had Will Howard, and this year it’s Julian Sayin. The fact that Ohio State was better running with Will Howard shouldn’t shock you. His mobility was his greatest strength. Sayin is a much more refined passer than Howard, so of course the passing attack is better with him.

Regardless of the reasons, when it comes to scoring points and allowing points, Ohio State has been better in 2025. Whether that will remain the case through the end of the season, we’ll have to wait and see.

There he goes again!

On James Franklin

A day after Maryland lost its sixth straight game, a 24-6 defeat at Illinois, the school announced Mike Locksley would be back next season. They also announced a new financial commitment to the football program, the same way Wisconsin promised to do when it announced Luke Fickell would return.

None of this surprised me. Everything I’d heard in recent weeks suggested Maryland felt it was a better idea to invest money into retaining its best players and adding new ones, rather than paying Mike Locksley to go away and then hire a new staff. Much like the Fickell news with Wisconsin fans, there were plenty of Maryland fans who weren’t excited to hear it.

They became less excited when James Franklin was announced as Virginia Tech’s new coach on Monday.

Some Maryland fans had been holding out hope that if they fired Locksley, they could hire Franklin. He spent eight total seasons as an assistant at Maryland under Ralph Friedgen, including three as the offensive coordinator and assistant head coach. Franklin was also considered the “head coach in waiting,” but left to take the job at Vanderbilt before Friedgen was fired in 2010.

I don’t think the hope ever made much sense. Franklin had the opportunity to take the Maryland job after 2010 but chose Vanderbilt. It was a decision that worked out wonderfully, as he succeeded at Vandy and turned that into the Penn State gig. That’s another decision that worked wonderfully. James Franklin built Penn State back up and was so successful there that eventually he wasn’t successful enough.

Terps fans need to ask themselves: if Franklin passed on the opportunity once, and then struggled to get Penn State over the Ohio State/Michigan hump, what would make Maryland more attractive to him now? If he couldn’t win the Big Ten at Penn State, how would he do it at Maryland?

Virginia Tech makes far more sense for him than Maryland ever would’ve.

Speaking of hires that worked out

Illinois came into the 2025 season with hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff. Those dreams have since been dashed, but the Illini remain on track to win nine games for the second straight season, and could win 10. The program has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons (it’s only done it five times total). It’s never won at least nine games in consecutive seasons, either.

The Bret Bielema hire raised a skeptical eyebrow or two around the country before the 2021 season, but it’s fair to say it’s worked out extremely well for Bielema and the Illini.

Going with my gut

Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Any game not included is due to there not being a posted line at time of publishing.

USC at Oregon: The Big Ten is getting exactly what it hoped for when it added these schools. Oregon and USC are playing in a game that has both huge implications in the Big Ten (USC can get to Indianapolis, if you didn’t know) and the College Football Playoff. Unfortunately for USC, I believe those hopes come to an end Saturday. It’s not so much that I believe the Ducks are an unbeatable juggernaut, it’s that USC on the road hasn’t been quite the same team at home, and I believe Jayden Maiava will struggle with this environment. The Pick: Oregon -10.5

Rutgers at Ohio State — Ohio State -31.5
Minnesota at Northwestern — Minnesota +3.5
Michigan State at Iowa — Iowa -16.5
Michigan at Maryland — Maryland +13.5
Nebraska at Penn State — Penn State -9.5
Illinois at Wisconsin — Illinois -7.5
Washington at UCLA — UCLA +10.5

Last Week: 4-4
Season: 53-44