The only thing that’s better than Thanksgiving dinner is when you can break open the leftovers. As we gear up for a jam-packed Sunday slate of NFL action, there’s no better time to dive into those final pieces of turkey while firing off some last-minute bets in the process.
Given that we just went through a busy Thanksgiving and Black Friday allotment of games, it’s easy to not have your eye on the ball in terms of how to wager for the rest of Week 13. And that’s where we come in.
Below, we’re going to highlight our best bets for the remaining games on the slate and give out a pick for every other contest on the docket. One common theme that you’ll find in our best bets is that we’re backing the underdogs to cover, which would be a continuation of what we’ve seen earlier in Week 13 as all four prior matchups saw the underdog not only cover, pull off the outright upset.
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I think this is an opportunity for the Texans to slam on the panic button surrounding the Colts. Houston’s defense is playing as well as any unit in the NFL right now. They rank first in the NFL in total yards per game allowed (264.3) and passer rating allowed (72.2), along with ranking second in points per game allowed (16.5). Meanwhile, Daniel Jones hasn’t been as lights out as he was to begin the season. Over his last three starts, Jones has an 83.0 passer rating with five total touchdowns and seven turnovers compared to the 109.5 passer rating, 17 total touchdowns, and three turnovers in the eight games before that. This is the type of defense that can highlight the recent lull from Jones. While I think Indy can find a way to pull this out at home, it’ll be within the number, and we’ll be asking a lot of questions about this team’s ceiling coming out of the contest.
Projected score: Colts 24, Texans 21
The pick: Texans +3.5
The Raiders are in a bad way, falling to 2-9 on the season last week following a loss to the Browns, which led to the firing of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. It’s possible that this move provides a momentary boost for the unit in this divisional matchup, but this pick has more to do with questions surrounding the Chargers than anything else. Let’s not forget that this team came out extraordinarily flat in a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars before the Week 12 bye. While they’ll be well-rested for this game, it doesn’t necessarily mean Justin Herbert will be better protected. They are still without starting left tackle Joe Alt for the year, and Herbert’s numbers have dipped in his absence. Without Alt, Herbert is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt and has eight touchdowns with six interceptions compared to the 8.3 yards per attempt average, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions with him. Las Vegas has a pass rusher led by Maxx Crosby who can continue to give Herbert fits, so this stays within a double-digit game.
Projected score: Chargers 23, Raiders 17
The pick: Raiders +9.5
If it were up to Brock Purdy, the 49ers would’ve lost in Week 12. The 49ers quarterback tossed three first-half interceptions against the Panthers on Monday night, but was bailed out by his defense that allowed just three points off those turnovers en route to a win. And Purdy’s struggles go beyond just this game as he’s thrown seven interceptions in four starts this season overall. Now, he’s asked to shake that off against a Browns defense that has been utterly dominant this season and is coming off a 10-sack performance in Week 12 against the Raiders. On the year, the unit is top three in the league in yards per game allowed (273.0), passing yards per game allowed (170.7), sacks (42), and third-down efficiency (34.5% opponent conversion rate). If Cleveland continues to play at that level, Purdy’s issues could persist and keep the Browns within range of an upset.
Projected score: 49ers 23, Browns 20
The pick: Browns +4.5
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN | Fubo, try for free)
The Patriots enter Week 13 atop the AFC as the No. 1 seed in the conference and the first club to reach 10 wins on the year. While they were able to notch a ninth straight win over the Bengals last week, it came at a cost. The entire left side of their offensive line went down due to injury, and both left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson are expected to miss time, including Monday’s contest. One of the strengths of New York this season has been its front, which is headlined by Brian Burns (13 sacks). With reserves set to man Drake Maye’s blindside, there’s an opportunity for Burns, Abdul Carter, and others to tee off and throw the Patriots offense off the track. If they can do that, it’ll help Jaxson Dart stay within the spread in his return to action.
Projected score: Patriots 24, Giants 20
The pick: Giants +7
Rest of the bunch
Jaguars at Titans
Projected score: Jaguars 27, Titans 17
The pick: Jaguars -6
Saints at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 28, Saints 20
The pick: Dolphins -5.5
Falcons at Jets
Projected score: Falcons 24, Jets 17
The pick: Falcons -2.5
Cardinals at Buccaneers
Projected score: Cardinals 24, Buccaneers 21
The pick: Cardinals +3.5
Rams at Panthers
Projected score: Rams 30, Panthers 17
The pick: Rams -10
Vikings at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Vikings 14
The pick: Seahawks -11.5
Bills at Steelers
Projected score: Bills 30, Steelers 21
The pick: Bills -3
Broncos at Commanders
Projected score: Broncos 27, Commanders 20
The pick: Broncos -5.5
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