Best MLB Make/Miss Playoff Bets Post All-Star Break
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Milwaukee Brewers (-330, DraftKings) to Make Playoffs
Implied Odds: 76.7%
Model: 89.1%
The model is extremely high on the Brewers. Milwaukee has a 4.5 game lead for a playoff spot at this point and despite the expensive -330 line, we still like the value here. Brandon Woodruff just came back from injury and looks to not have skipped a beat despite missing nearly two seasons, rookie Jacob Misiorowski is throwing 103 mph, and Nestor Cortes should return soon and add more pitching depth.
The Brewers have a slightly tougher schedule going forward compared to their first 96 games on the season, but we project their final record to be 91-71, which should be more than enough to secure a playoff spot.
Seattle Mariners (-188, FanDuel to Make Playoffs)
Implied Odds: 65.3%
Model: 83.2%
The Mariners should not miss the playoffs with the pitching rotation that they have, but they need to show more consistency going forward. They swept the Tigers, who have the best record in baseball, on the road in their last series, but they were swept by the Yankees the series prior. Cal Raleigh has been on fire and leads the MLB in homers, Randy Arozarena has caught fire as of late, and Julio Rodriguez tends to play better in the second half of the season. The Mariners also have a strong farm that they can use to add a piece or two at the deadline.
Cal Raleigh will need some help from the rest of the Mariners if they are going to make it deep into the season. Seattle’s expected record is slightly better than their 51-45 record YTD, so you can take that as a good sign that they are underperforming but still have a 1.5 game lead on the last wild card spot.
Boston Red Sox (-115, DraftKings) to Make Playoffs
Implied Odds: 53.5%
Model: 66.9%
The value at -115 on DraftKings is too good to pass up, as almost every other book sets the line at -140. The Red Sox are red hot and went into the all-star break on a 10-game win streak. The Red Sox, like the Mariners, have a ton of talent in the farm– even after bringing up Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony — and have plenty of trade pieces to go out and grab an arm to pair with Garrett Crochet.
Boston has been aggressive over the last year, adding both Crochet and Alex Bregman. It is likely that they move at least one of their young prospects to avoid creating a logjam at certain positions going forward. Buy into their recent hot play, which sets them up to be buyers at the deadline.
St Louis Cardinals (-280, DraftKings) to Miss Playoffs
Implied Odds: 73.7%
Model: 84.2%
The Cardinals are likely to sell at the deadline, so we suggest getting this price while its still somewhat worth betting. The Cards are all the way at -335 to miss the playoffs on Caesars. According to our model, the Cardinals have the second toughest schedule in baseball over the rest of the season.
The Cardinals’ average opponent YTD has a 49.1% winning percentage, while their opponents through the rest of the season have a 53.1% winning percentage. The Cardinals have outplayed their expectations from the beginning of the season, but now is the time to sell high on them.
Minnesota (-350, DraftKings) to Miss Playoffs
Implied Odds: 77.8%
Model: 88.1%
This is another spot to play the books before its no longer worth betting. The Twins are all the way at -480 to miss the playoffs on FanDuel. Despite having the easiest schedule year to date, the Twins are two games below .500 and are likely sellers at the deadline.
The Twins season has been ravaged by injuries, and the best move for them going forward would be to trade what they can and build for the future.
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