It’s the most wonderful time of the year—in basketball. It’s March, the time for ankle breakers and buzzer beaters; blue bloods and Cinderellas; madness and sadness.
The first real heavyweight matchup of the month takes place on Monday when the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats and No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones collide at the McKale Center in Tucson. With their dominant 84-61 win over Kansas on Saturday, Koa Peat and the Wildcats (27-2, 14-2 in Big 12) clinched a share of the conference regular season title. They can win the title outright with a victory in one of their final two games and are on track to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Meanwhile, the Cyclones (24-5, 11-5) enter the game reeling. They have lost two of their last three games and three of their last six, including an 82-73 loss on Saturday to a Texas Tech team playing without its best player, JT Toppin. Iowa State’s recent slide has damaged its hopes to earn another No. 1 seed from the Big 12.
The Wildcats are 7.5-point favorites over the Cyclones on Monday.
While Arizona vs. Iowa State is the marquee attraction on Monday, there are other options on a sporting landscape that includes four NBA games and a partial college basketball schedule. Below is a snapshot of what to watch and bet for Monday, March 2. All times Eastern.
College basketball best bets, where to watch
No. 1 Duke at NC State
Time: 7 p.m. | Location: Raleigh, N.C. | TV: ESPN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Over 148.5 | Expert: Duke -9.5 (Chip Patterson)
Duke’s Cameron Boozer, the favorite to win National Player of the Year, is having a stat-stuffing season unlike any this century. The forward ranks seventh in the country in scoring (22.5 points per game) and 14th in rebounding (10.0 per game). He has had at least 14 points, five rebounds and two assists in all 29 games this season, the longest such streak by any player (men’s or women’s) at any point in a D-I career this century. Led by Boozer, the Blue Devils rank sixth in the nation in rebound margin (10.3 per game). “The Wolfpack have also been trending in the wrong direction on the defensive side of the ball, logging three of their least-efficient performances in the last five games,” Patterson says. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times, says there’s a 67.5% chance the teams combine for 149 points or more and assigns a “B” grade to Over 148.5.
No. 6 Iowa State at No. 2 Arizona
Time: 9 p.m. | Location: Tucson, Ariz. | TV: ESPN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Iowa State +7.5 | Expert: Under 147.5 (Eric Cohen and Mike McClure)
While the Cyclones have been sputtering lately, they are still a team capable of a Final Four run. Senior point guard Tamin Lipsey is a veteran leader who allows Iowa State to play games at its pace, which is slow (66.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 221st in the country). These are also two of the top eight most efficient defenses in the nation. Arizona is third (89.9 points per 100 possessions), while the Cyclones are eighth (93.8). The SportsLine Projection Model says there’s a 59% chance Iowa State covers and gives a “C” grade to Cyclones +7.5. Meanwhile, Cohen notes the Wildcats haven’t surrendered more than 68 points in regulation to a visiting team in their last six home games. “I expect this game to be close between two excellent defensive teams surrendering well below 70 points per game,” he says.
NBA best bets, where to watch
Celtics at Bucks
Time: 7:30 p.m. | Location: Milwaukee | TV: NBA TV | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Over 215.5 | Expert: AJ Green Over 8.5 total points (Prop Bet Guy)
Giannis Antetokounmpo last played on Jan. 23 and was ruled out for four to six weeks. Friday will be the end of the sixth week, which means that the Greek Freak, theoretically, should be returning to the lineup any day now. Since he has been out, the Milwaukee Bucks have the sixth worst defense in the NBA, allowing 118.4 points per 100 possessions. That doesn’t bode well on Monday against a Celtics team that has the most efficient offense in the league (120.3). The SportsLine Projection Model says there’s a 68% chance the teams combine for 216 points or more and assigns a strong “A” grade to Over 215.5. Meanwhile, Prop Bet Guy notes Green has cleared this points line in 16 of 24 games against teams that rank in the bottom half of the NBA in both catch-and-shoot defense and 3-pointers allowed. “The Celtics rank 23rd and 25th, respectively, which should give Green ample opportunities from behind the arc tonight, even if Antetokounmpo suits up,” he says.
Clippers at Warriors
Time: 10 p.m. | Location: San Francisco | TV: Peacock NBCSN | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Warriors +105 | Expert: Gui Santos Over 12.5 total points (Prop Bet Guy)
In what could be a preview of a Play-In Tournament matchup next month, the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers square off in the Chase Center. The Warriors (31-29) sit in the eighth spot in the Western Conference, 2.5 games ahead of the ninth-place Clippers (28-31). On Monday, however, Golden State will be dealing with a rash of absences, including Stephen Curry (knee), Kristaps Porzingis (illness), Will Richard (ankle) and perhaps Gary Payton II (ankle). Prop Bet Guy notes Santos has scored at least 13 points in 11 of his last 12 games. “Santos’ rotation has him at 30-plus minutes,” he says. “Even in a slower matchup, I like him to find the volume to hit this.” Meanwhile the SportsLine Projection Model says the Warriors have a 64% chance to win and gives an “A” grade to Golden State money line.
Looking ahead
NBA: Spurs at 76ers
Time: 8 p.m. Tuesday | Location: Philadelphia | TV: NBC/Peacock | Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
SportsLine picks — Model: Spurs -6.5
The San Antonio Spurs will look to bounce back from their biggest loss of the season when they face the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday at Xfinity Mobile Arena. On Sunday, the Spurs were blown out by the Knicks 114-89. The 25-point defeat was the team’s worst this season. But San Antonio still has an elite defense that allows just 110.5 points per 100 possessions, which ranks third in the league. That could spell trouble for a Philadelphia team that shot just 39.8% from the field in Sunday night’s 114-98 loss to the Celtics. The SportsLine Projection Model says there’s a 64% chance the Spurs cover and assigns a “B” grade to San Antonio -6.5.
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