Hall of Fame weekend is underway in Cooperstown and the big event will be the official induction of Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, Billy Wagner, Dave Parker and Dick Allen in a ceremony on Sunday.
A funny thing in reflecting on this class is there’s excellent diversity. We’ve got an outfielder who was long known as an easy and obvious, first-ballot Hall of Famer. He’s joined by a workhorse starting pitcher who looked like a surefire Hall of Famer at times and at others there were concerns maybe he’d wind up short. With closers, it’s always a toss up and it took Wagner 10 tries on the ballot. And then there are two outfielders who took decades upon decades to finally get in, posthumously (at least Parker learned of his induction before passing).
In looking at the current landscape of Major League Baseball against the backdrop of Hall of Fame weekend, many out there might be wondering where current players stand.
Let’s run through them.
I am not going to forecast how players fare moving forward here. This exercise is looking at the current foundation that players have in place.
The locks
This means any of the following players could retire right now and make the Hall of Fame. We aren’t assuming things will happen in the future. No, the résumé as it stands is already Hall-worthy. Right off the top, this means any players with less than 10 years of service time can’t be included, as the Hall of Fame requires 10 years.
Mike Trout – He hasn’t been able to stay healthy since 2020, but Trout still has three MVPs, a career slash line of .296/.408/.575 (171 OPS+) and sits fifth in JAWS among center fielders. He’s hitting benchmarks, too, as he is four home runs away from 400 and his next RBI will be number 1,000.
Justin Verlander – I’m sure he’d love to hold on for 300 wins, but that ain’t happening. Regardless, Verlander has won 263 games, three Cy Youngs, an MVP, two World Series rings and has more than 3,400 strikeouts. He’ll top 90% in Hall of Fame voting.
Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw will also top 90% and both he and Verlander both probably climb close to 100%. Kershaw also has three Cy Youngs, an MVP and two rings. He has won five ERA titles and earlier this season surpassed 3,000 strikeouts.
Max Scherzer – Hey, another three-time Cy Young winner with two rings. Scherzer has more than 3,400 strikeouts and has led the league in wins four times.
Mookie Betts – I’m not sure everyone agrees that Betts is already in. My rationale is that it would take something drastic to prevent him from playing ever again and, if that were the case, he’d get a pass on some of the counting stats and would make the Hall as a peak candidate. He has an MVP and has finished second in voting three times. He’s won three World Series. He’d led the majors in WAR three times. He’s long been exceptional at nearly everything, to the point that he was moved from right field to second base and then to shortstop. Currently, he’s eighth among right fielders in JAWS, sitting ahead of Reggie Jackson with Al Kaline in reach next.
On the cusp
It’s possible the following players already have Hall of Fame résumés, but it’s also possible they wouldn’t make the cut. For some, just stay the course. For others, a slight nudge forward solidifies things. To be clear, I think every player mentioned in this section is going to be a Hall of Famer. They just might not make it as things stand today.
Aaron Judge – I had Judge a step lower over the winter when I did this, but the 2025 season marks the 10th for Judge, so he’s now officially Hall-eligible and it’s tough to see him not making it at this rate. When he hit his 350th home run, I noted the trajectory seems headed toward the Hall at this point. The two-time MVP has unbelievable stature that’ll help down the road in voting and he might well secure his third MVP this season. He’s a .293 hitter with a .410 on-base percentage and .615 slugging (177 OPS+). The counting stats might feel light right now: 1,155 hits, 197 doubles, 352 homers, 801 RBI and 826 runs scored. He is up to 15th in JAWS and above the current Hall of Fame average there, having passed Ichiro and Tony Gwynn this season.
Paul Goldschmidt – I think he’s probably in. At present, Goldschmidt is almost exactly at the average Hall of Fame first baseman in JAWS and WAR. He has an MVP and is a career .289/.380/.506 (138 OPS+) hitter. He’s at 2,158 hits, but there might be concern with 469 doubles, 370 home runs, 1,224 RBI and 1,262 runs from a first baseman.
Freddie Freeman – It’s difficult to envision a world where Freeman doesn’t move into the above category pretty quickly. He might already be there. He has an MVP and two World Series rings and we can tack on top that his World Series MVP heroics from last October. It was one for the ages. He’s a career .300 hitter with a 142 OPS+. He’s the active leader in runs (1,348), hits (2,369), doubles (535) and RBI (1,283) while also having 353 home runs. Right now, though, he’s with Keith Hernandez in JAWS and has safely passed him in WAR. He’s also signed through 2027.
Manny Machado – Machado surpassed 2,000 hits earlier this season. He’s still only 33, so he’s headed to Cooperstown, but, again, we’re only going on what we’ve seen to this point. Machado has 2,018 hits, 388 doubles, 361 homers, 1,112 RBI, 1,052 runs scored and sits 18th in JAWS at third base.
Nolan Arenado – Arenado is right behind Machado in JAWS at 19th among third basemen now in his age-34 season. He has a 119 career OPS+ with 1,909 hits, 402 doubles, 351 home runs, 1,175 RBI, 987 runs and an unfair Coors Field stigma to fight. The defensive wizardry should help mitigate some of that, but this isn’t a done deal.
Chris Sale – Fresh off his first Cy Young award, Sale is now up to 64th in starting pitcher JAWS. He’s ahead of Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte, who are hanging around on the ballot and likely will garner a lot more support moving forward. Will the low win total hinder Sale? He’s at 143. The 2,528 Ks feel low for a strikeout artist who is now 36.
Bryce Harper – He sits just 28th in JAWS, well below the Hall of Fame average and just a touch above Brian Giles. There’s more to Harper, though, notably a “feel” and “fame” factor. I think the two-time MVP eventually gets his numbers to where this isn’t really a question — he’s 32 — but for now the 1,746 hits, 391 doubles, 351 homers, 1,019 RBI and 1,129 runs scored are light. He’s a career .281/.388/.521 (143 OPS+) hitter.
Francisco Lindor – A monster 2024 campaign shot Lindor up to 20th in JAWS among shortstops and he’s continued the ascent by moving into 19th during this season. He’s still below the average Hall of Famer, but isn’t far off. He’s a .273 hitter with a 119 OPS+ along with 203 stolen bases and exceptional defense at a premium position. He’s a “heart and soul of the team” guy and that can provide bonus points. The counting stats right now: 1,597 hits, 323 doubles, 268 homers, 828 RBI, 962 runs scored.
José Ramírez – He’s 21st in JAWS at third, just behind Machado, Arenado and Evan Longoria, respectively. Ramírez has finished second in MVP voting once, third twice, fourth once, fifth once and sixth once. He has 1,613 hits with 384 doubles, 276 homers, 920 RBI, 962 runs scored and 274 steals with a 131 OPS and .280 average.
On track
To wrap up, let’s take a look at some players who are trending toward toward the Hall of Fame, but still have a little something holding them back. Can that be rectified in the next few years?
Jose Altuve – He’d be listed somewhere above, but we’re seeing now that it’s been an uphill battle for Carlos Beltrán to get in after the Astros sign-stealing scandal in 2017. Beltrán was in his final season and barely played on that team. Altuve was the MVP that season and right in the middle of his prime. I still think I’ll end up voting for him, but I feel like it’s going to be a very tough fight for Altuve. As for the numbers, he’s a career .305 hitter with a 128 OPS+, 2,340 hits, 448 doubles, 246 homers, 865 RBI, 1,212 runs scored, 321 steals and one of the most gaudy postseason ledgers in history. He’s 19th in JAWS at second base and is now 35 years old.
Shohei Ohtani – This is his eighth season, otherwise I’d have Ohtani higher. I don’t even think the numbers matter. Once Ohtani gets to 10 years, he’s a lock, but he’s still two seasons away from that.
Gerrit Cole – He’s 34 years old and recovering from Tommy John surgery, so it might end up being an uphill battle. There’s certainly a “feel” to Cole, though, right? When you wonder what a Hall of Fame pitcher looks like in our current game, he’s on the short list of the players who come to mind. He’s won a Cy Young and has two ERA titles. Right now, Cole has 153 wins and 2,251 strikeouts in 1,954 innings. Some of us are working hard on loosening the standards for starting pitchers in this era to make the Hall of Fame, but that doesn’t mean everyone is on board. In starting pitching JAWS, Cole sits 152nd, behind pitchers like Steve Rogers, Vida Blue and Mickey Lolich.
Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and/or Craig Kimbrel?
I have the question mark there because I’m not sure how closers will fare on the ballots as we move forward. Billy Wagner getting into Cooperstown seems like it should be a good sign, but it took him 10 tries and he barely made it. The biggest obstacle Wagner had to overcome was his 903 career innings pitched. Jansen has 905, Kimbrel 810 ⅔ and Chapman 800 ⅓. If the best of the best closers by generation get in, these three would be strong selections, but how will the voting body deal with this workload shortfall compared to the other Hall of Fame relievers?
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