We remain in the very, very early stages of this season but what is a running assessment of the best players on the planet if you don’t keep it regularly updated? With the Champions League heating up and World Cup qualifying having afforded big name players a chance to shine, it could be all change at the top of our rankings.
Well, actually it’s not.
What might be more intriguing, however, is what is happening lower down the list, where there is, for instance, no Mohamed Salah after his wobbly start to the season. Vinicius Junior is also on the up while Barcelona players are paying the price for injuries. Let’s get into these before I give any more away.
1. Kylian Mbappe, Real Madrid (–)
Apologies to those of you who come into this with a no-spoilers mindset but look, we shouldn’t act like there isn’t a clear top three emerging at the very start of this race. Right now, it’s Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, and the field. How exactly those three project over the months ahead is up in the air, but there are just a few signs that Mbappe should be the favorite just now. For starters, his non-penalty expected goals (npxG) in league and European play is second only to the man at No. 2 in these rankings, but the Real Madrid man is doing way more creatively, more than double the expected assists (xA) and six times as many chances created for others.
Even that only puts a hair’s breadth between Mbappe and the other two, and so we may need to look ahead at the criteria that might separate these players come the end of the season. That could be team success, and right now Real Madrid seem a slightly likelier bet to win the Champions League than Manchester City and Bayern Munich, as France are probably greater favorites for the World Cup than England.
This column is firmly of the view that the Ballon d’Or should be awarded to the best performing player of the season rather than someone who has collected the most silverware. But performing at the highest level and winning the biggest prizes? That should do it. Mbappe seems better poised to achieve that than anyone else.
2. Erling Haaland, Manchester City (–)
A month ago, we described the 1.52 npxG per 90 averaged by Haaland as “ludicrous.” That it was, and Haaland’s numbers have regressed to the norm significantly in the last few games. He is still averaging 1.08 npxG per 90, only now he has hit a bit of a hot streak and is outperforming that. In Premier League and Champions League, he finds the net every 64 minutes, scoring as many in the top flight as 12 other teams. U wot m8?
This might actually continue, by the way. The evidence of the first two months of the season is that Pep Guardiola’s tactical starting point is “how can we get more shots for Erling Haaland.” In all, the big Norwegian has taken nearly 30% of City’s shots and accounts for over 57% of their xG. No wonder when his xG per shot is 0.25, meaning his average shot is what most stats providers would label a big chance. So long as City can keep putting him in the right spots, there is a vanishingly small number of defenders and goalkeepers who can stop Haaland.
3. Harry Kane, Bayern Munich (–)
In pure output terms, Kane is at least the equal of the two players above him. For Bayern Munich, he has 17 goals and three assists in 2025-26, while his three goals in qualifying have been a big help in England becoming the first European side to book their spot at the World Cup. You might even make the case that, on pure output right now, Kane is the best player in the world.
TruMedia
Why not have him one then? The error bars are just a smidge wider for him, is all. It’s as you can see in the shot chart above, lots of tiny green smidges that show goals from low xG value positions. In all his 15 goals for Bayern in league and Europe have come from a smidge over 7.5 xG, and even a striker as good as Kane can only double his xG for so long. Half an npxG per 90 isn’t to be sniffed at — particularly when you’re pairing it with 0.2 xA — even if it is third on Bayern. Kane could well be very, very good for the remainder of this season. He just probably won’t keep being this good.
4. Pedri, Barcelona (+1)
Pedri probably isn’t going to win the Ballon d’Or. There is always the odd Rodri-shaped exception, but these awards tend to go to attackers, somewhat understandably so. But if putting the ball in the net is the most valuable action on a football pitch, then dictating the course of a contest can’t be far behind. That, of course, means manipulating possession, and Pedri is a ball progressing master on the level of Vitinha and Joshua Kimmich.
TruMedia
What separates Pedri from the rest is apparent in that graphic above. Just look at how often he is getting the ball back and how often he is doing so high up the field. The 22 year old has developed into an elite player without the ball, recovering possession more frequently than anyone in Europe’s top five leagues. Among defensive midfielders he ranks in the top 10 for duels and top 30 for interceptions. It is fair to ask whether Barcelona’s high wire act of a defensive line can work without Pedri. If they achieve big things this season, you suspect he will deserve more flowers than he gets.
5. Michael Olise, Bayern Munich (+3)
It says something indeed when a 23-year-old with just a dozen caps finds himself labelled one of the “technical leaders” of the French national team. Then again, William Saliba’s description of Michael Olise seems fair enough, really. If you’re not letting Olise lead your team, you’re doing something wrong. After all, he has been doing exactly that in a Bayern Munich shirt to quite glorious effect.
“He brings a bit of ‘craziness’ to the team and has good technique,” Saliba added. “He’s a cool guy, a bit nonchalant sometimes, which is funny.”
Honestly, that nonchalance, familiar to Palace fans first and foremost, should be enough to have neutrals cheering on his Ballon d’Or candidacy.
6. Ousmane Dembele, Paris Saint-Germain (-2)
There’s a bit of a refrain to come in the back half of this list. It’s just the injuries, mate. In discourse terms, if you’re going to miss some games and still compete for the Ballon d’Or, these are the games to miss, long before World Cups and Champions Leagues are decided. This column, however, cares about aggregates and grand totals. A hamstring injury has kept Ousmane Dembele from building much in that regard. We shall have to see after his return if he can be the player who was so worthy of winning last season’s Ballon d’Or.
7. Lamine Yamal, Barcelona (-1)
In Lamine Yamal’s case, there is another reason why it makes sense to ding his standings on the basis of injury. The groin issue that has hampered him early in the season has flared up again, causing a war of words between the Spanish national team and Barcelona. These particular sorts of injuries are relatively common among players making their first strides into the world of senior football, and it is often the case that the best treatment is extended rest. Best of luck convincing Barcelona to hold Yamal back with a Clasico on the horizon. There is a very fine line to tread here between easing the load on a player who has just turned 18 and not depriving your team of one of the best players in the world.
That is what Yamal clearly is. You only need to see how he marked his brief return to action with a brilliant assist against Real Sociedad to have that affirmed for you. Give him a run of games at full fitness, and Yamal might just crash into the top of these rankings.
8. Vinicius Junior, Real Madrid (new entry)
Remember all those questions over whether Xabi Alonso was all that keen on Vinicius Junior? Those seem to have been brushed aside, don’t they? The Brazilian now ranks seventh among Real Madrid outfield players for total minutes played and has begun to make the left flank his own, holding width high up the field and creating more space for Mbappe to excel.
TruMedia
If that doesn’t exactly scream biggest individual prizes in football, then an upswing on four assists and four goals this season might, particularly when his combined npxG and xA is at 0.76 per 90. We know that Vinicius can play at the level of a Ballon d’Or winner. Although it is less likely that he gets there in an attack geared for Mbappe, it would be unwise to discount it entirely.
9. Raphinha, Barcelona (-2)
It is hoped that Raphinha’s injury, one of a string that have rocked Barcelona this season, is to be a minor one given that the Brazilian started 2025-26 as he ended the previous campaign, three goals and two assists in seven games. The fear for both player and club will be that he is back in time for big games such as the Clasico; an extended absence that coincides with a run of results that takes Barcelona out of contention for La Liga would do no favors to the candidacy of a player who really should have ranked higher than fifth last season.
10. Bukayo Saka, Arsenal (new entry)
Right now, you probably could not argue that Bukayo Saka has been one of the 10 best-performing players of the early weeks of the season. He has just been injured for too much of it. However, Arsenal have been very, very good when their best player has been sidelined for half their games. Suppose they continue to play as they are, perhaps even to a higher level with their best and brightest available. The Champions League would be winnable for them, as of course would the Premier League they currently top. Suppose one of those two comes to north London, it is hard to imagine that it happens without Arsenal’s homegrown superstar being one of their best players. If so, why shouldn’t he become the first English Ballon d’Or winner in a quarter of a century?
Add Comment