B1G Time: Matt Rhule looks like the favorite for the Penn State job, but he might not be the best candidate

I suspect Matt Rhule will eventually be introduced as the next head coach of Penn State. I wouldn’t expect it to happen before December, and I’m sure Penn State will do its due diligence of talking to other candidates to see what’s out there, but Rhule feels like the most likely result.

The connections are obvious and bountiful. Rhule played linebacker at Penn State for Joe Paterno — an era many in the program yearn to return to. Rhule’s first coaching job was as a volunteer assistant at Penn State immediately after his college career concluded. His first head coaching job was at Temple in 2013. His athletic director there was Pat Kraft, the same man who is currently the athletic director at Penn State and made the decision to fire James Franklin.

Kraft also made the decision to pay Franklin nearly $50 million to no longer work for him or Penn State, which is a heavy price to pay. It’s the kind of price that makes you wonder if Kraft doesn’t already have a replacement in mind. It’s hard to imagine making that kind of financial commitment without a certain level of confidence about how your replacement will be perceived.

So, yeah, Matt Rhule seems like the most likely replacement at Penn State. It makes plenty of sense. Whether or not it’s the right hire for Penn State remains up for debate.

It’s not the direction I’d go.

It’s not a knock on Rhule, who has been successful at every college stop he’s made. We saw Temple and Baylor make huge leaps in his third season, and this year, his third at Nebraska, the Cornhuskers are off to a 5-1 start and ranked in the AP Top 25 for only the third week since the 2019 season (the last two were both last year under Rhule). But we haven’t seen him sustain that success. There was no fourth year at Temple or Baylor because Rhule used that third year success to climb the ladder each time. I don’t think that would be the case at Penn State. I assume he’d be there until they kicked him out or he retired.

But Penn State isn’t a rebuild the way Temple, Baylor and Nebraska were. I don’t know that Penn State fans would be willing to wait until that third season to get the program going.

There’s also Rhule’s record against ranked teams. Yes, James Franklin was fired after losing as a huge favorite against UCLA and Northwestern, but the biggest knock against him for most of his Penn State tenure was his inability to win the big games. Well, Matt Rhule is 2-23 all-time against ranked opponents as a head coach, and both wins came while he was at Temple. He’s 0-7 at Nebraska, with three of those losses coming by 20 points or more. Yes, that record would likely improve at Penn State because it’s a team better-prepared to compete in those games, but that record is not encouraging.

That’s why Rhule wouldn’t be my preferred option. Yes, there are “bigger” names out there that Penn State should check on like Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, but I don’t know how interested any of them would be in the Penn State job right now.

The names I’d be going after have no previous ties to Penn State. They’re Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz. Campbell is one of the best program builders in the country, and he’s been so successful at Iowa State that people have forgotten how difficult a job it is.

Campbell has routinely taken three-star talent and developed NFL players. He was hired in 2016 and has produced 15 NFL Draft picks since 2019, including guys like David Montgomery, Breece Hall, and Brock Purdy. Purdy’s an interesting name because he’s a quarterback.

Penn State had only three QBs drafted under Franklin (Drew Allar will likely be the fourth, though not nearly as high as once projected), but one of them — Christian Hackenberg — was recruited by Bill O’Brien.

Campbell has also produced four draft picks at the receiver position, including two this past April in Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. Penn State had six under Franklin, and one of them — Allen Robinson — was recruited by O’Brien’s staff as well.

The one thing that truly held Franklin’s teams back was that while they produced a lot of NFL players on the defensive side of the ball, at tight end, and at running back, they were always behind the elite teams at QB and WR despite routinely recruiting four and five-star talent at those spots. The development just never clicked. Well, Matt Campbell’s been able to produce NFL talent at those positions at the same rate, but he’s done so with 3-stars. Imagine what he could do at a place like Penn State, where he has greater access to top talent than he could ever dream of at Iowa State.

The other name at the top of my list would be Eli Drinkwitz. While I believe Matt Campbell would seriously consider taking the Penn State job if offered, I’m not as sure Drinkwitz would. Not because he wouldn’t see the job as an opportunity, but because the Arkansas native has spent nearly his entire coaching career (outside of a season at Boise State) in the southeast. He could prefer to stay at Missouri until somebody like Florida came calling, which might also happen this year!

Regardless, Penn State would be foolish not to check in on him. He has built Missouri into a monster in the SEC, and he’s done so by recruiting extremely well and by being a wise offensive mind. Drinkwitz rose to prominence for his work as an offensive coordinator, and everywhere he’s been, his teams have put points on the board, with or without elite talent.

Do you think that would sound appealing to the Penn State fan base? I do.

As I said, though, in the end, it will probably be Matt Rhule, and maybe it’ll all work out for the best. That’s the most important thing anybody can remember when it comes to a coaching search. Nobody knows a damn thing about how it’ll all work out. If we did, well, we wouldn’t be paying $50 million to make coaches go away, would we?

Historic futility

We could see something happen in the Big Ten this year that we haven’t seen in over 30 years. While giant mega conferences have led to plenty of people working through possible tie-breaker scenarios at the top of the standings, not as much attention has been paid to the bottom.

I’m paying attention, though.

After last weekend’s action, there are five teams that are 0-3 in Big Ten play: Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers and Wisconsin. Thanks to an 18-team league and a 9-game schedule, not all of them play each other. That means there’s a decent chance the Big Ten will have two different teams go 0-9 in conference play this year.

The Big Ten hasn’t had two teams finish winless in conference play since Northwestern and Purdue went 0-8 during the 1993 season. That was Penn State’s first season in the league, and it, Ohio State and Wisconsin all won 10 games. Now two of 1993’s best are in serious danger of going 0-9.

While on the subject of futility

James Franklin was the first Big Ten coach fired this year (boy, what were the preseason odds on that?), but I strongly doubt he’ll be the last. At the very least, we’ll see another coach perhaps move of their own volition.

Wisconsin is a job that looks destined to open up. I wonder if the only reason it hasn’t happened yet is the possibility that Wisconsin is considering replacing athletic director Chris McIntosh, too.

The other job to keep an eye on is at Michigan State. Jonathan Smith is only in his second season with the Spartans, but there haven’t been any signs of improvement within the program. Part of Smith’s sell was the way he developed quarterbacks at Oregon State, and he was bringing an extremely talented Aidan Chiles with him. Well, Chiles has not progressed, and in some ways may be regressing. The Spartans are 3-9 in Big Ten play and were embarrassed at home in a 25-point loss to UCLA.

The Spartans’ defense has allowed at least 24 points in every game but the opener against Western Michigan, and it’s allowed at least 38 in every game against a Power Four opponent.

I don’t know that Michigan State has the stomach to make this move so quickly, considering it would be the program’s third coaching search since 2020, but James Franklin just got fired 15 days after his team was No. 3 in the country. Anything is possible.

Ohio State’s red zone dominance

A strange thing happened during Ohio State’s 34-16 win over Illinois. The Buckeyes allowed two touchdowns on red zone possessions. They were the first touchdowns Ohio State had allowed in a red zone possession this season.

Ohio State’s defense is now allowing 2.18 points per defensive red zone possession, and while that’s not as good as the 1.13 it was allowing before the Illini game, it’s still an elite mark.

TruMedia’s database only goes back to the 2016 season, but the 2.18 points Ohio State’s defense is allowing in such situations is far and away the lowest number any team has allowed in any season.

Of course, it needs to be pointed out that four of those 10 numbers are from this season, and the team in 11th (SMU at 3.12) is from this season as well. Whether or not Ohio State can maintain this level of performance remains to be seen, and it’s worth noting the Buckeyes are allowing 3.43 points per red zone possession in three Big Ten games.

Going with my gut

Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Any game not included is due to there not being a posted line at time of publishing.

No. 20 USC at No. 13 Notre Dame: I went over the difference in Lincoln Riley’s USC at home and on the road in this week’s CFP Vibe Check, and it’s pretty bleak. The Trojans are 19-5 at home compared to 12-10 on the road or at neutral sites. I think beating Michigan in the fashion they did last week was the most impressive thing they’ve done as a Big Ten school, but I’m not ready to trust this team being able to bring that same energy on the road until it proves to me it can. The Pick: Notre Dame -9.5

No. 25 Nebraska at Minnesota (Friday) — Minnesota +7.5
Washington at Michigan — Michigan -5.5
Purdue at Northwestern — Northwestern -2.5
No. 1 Ohio State at Wisconsin — Wisconsin +26.5
Michigan State at No. 3 Indiana — Indiana -27.5
No. 8 Oregon at Rutgers — Rutgers +17.5
Penn State at Iowa — Iowa -3.5
Maryland at UCLA — UCLA -3.5

Two Weeks Ago: 5-2
Season: 34-26