Astros vs. Red Sox prediction, odds, line, start time: 2025 MLB picks, August 3 bets from proven model

The Boston Red Sox (61-51) and Houston Astros (62-49) square off in an American League showdown for a Sunday matinee. Boston has won four straight games and is heading for the sweep. The Red Sox defeated the Astros 7-3 on Saturday. Houston’s been beaten in seven of their last nine outings. Lucas Giolito (7-2, 3.80 ERA) grabs the start for the Red Sox, and Framber Valdez (11-4, 2.62 ERA) counters for the Astros. 

First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 11:35 a.m. ET. The Astros are the -130 money-line favorites in the latest Astros vs. Red Sox odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total runs scored is 8.5. Before making any Red Sox vs. Astros picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 19 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 27-22 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 40 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Astros vs. Red Sox and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Astros vs. Red Sox, which you can get in on with a DraftKings promo code or a FanDuel promo code.

Why the Astros can win

First baseman Christian Walker has a .240 batting average with 15 home runs and 58 RBI on the season. He’s recorded a hit in six of his past seven games. In Saturday’s bout against Boston, Walker was 2-of-3 with a two-run homer. 

Catcher Yainer Diaz is an additional offensive threat for the Astros. On the campaign, he owns a .254 batting average, 15 home runs, and 45 RBI. Over his last game, Diaz was 2-of-5 with one run driven in. Houston enters this game with a 30-18 record after a loss and a 46-32 record in non-division games. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Red Sox can win

Outfielder Jarren Duran has found his groove, getting a hit in seven of his last eight games. In 2025, he’s batting .262 with 11 home runs and 60 RBI. In the May 30 win over the Twins, Duran was 3-of-5 with a double, a homer, and four total runs driven in. SportsLine’s model expects Duran to finish with over 0.5 total bases at -169 odds on Sunday, projecting he’ll finish with 1.5 total bases. 

Shortstop Trevor Story logs a .254 batting average along with 18 dingers and a team-high 68 RBI. He’s notched at least two hits in three of his last four games. On Saturday, Story finished 2-of-3 with a home run and three RBI. The Red Sox are 36-21 as the home team and 8-4 as the home underdog this season. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Red Sox vs. Astros picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 9.3 combined runs, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s MLB picks. 

So who wins Astros vs. Red Sox, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.