Arsenal will maintain their five-point lead atop the Premier League table for at least another few days, securing a 2-1 win against Chelsea on Sunday as a batch of familiar habits – good and bad – were on full display for both sides.
For a match defined by title race intrigue and game-changing moments, it was marked by stereotype in equal measure. Quality chances for both sides were few and far between over the course of the 90 minutes, set pieces coming to the rescue of each side when establishing a free-flowing rhythm seemed not to be an option, either by choice or lack of ability. Naturally, the Gunners capitalized first – their eight first-half chances only generated 0.7 expected goals but a tried-and-true corner routine meant the stop-start nature of the game was no trouble at all. An inswinging corner meant Gabriel connected with it on the far post, allowing William Saliba to score from close range in the 21st minute on the other end of the goal.
As cliché as the Gunners’ advantage was, the Premier League leaders were doing just fine because they knew Chelsea were incapable of taking change of a game that was discordant by design. Joao Pedro and Enzo Fernandez have done what they can to paper over the cracks of an inconsistent Blues offense, the drop-off from last year in large part because the weight of fixture congestion seems to weighing heavily on Cole Palmer. The Blues are They are also not much of a first half team – Chelsea lead the league on expected goals with 52.99, behind last season’s pace through 28 games with 56.72, but slip down to third when isolating for the period before the halftime break, posting just 22.04 in the first 45 minutes. Sunday’s game an extreme version of the phenomenon but a signal of the trend nonetheless – they took three shots but put none on target, generating 0.41 expected goals along the way.
In a league where set pieces seem to have an oversized role in proceedings these days, though, Liam Rosenior’s side were able to give the hosts a taste of their own medicine just before the break – Reece James’ well-placed corner came off Piero Hincapie and forced the Arsenal defender to score an own goal just before the break. It was only the fourth goal the Gunners had conceded off a set piece in the Premier League this season, the energy escaping the Emirates Stadium as the ball crossed the goal line.
It was a perfect set-up for a Chelsea team prone to pick things up in the second half, which they most certainly did. While they had roughly 57% of the ball in the first half, their second-half possession tally exceeded 60% and they had five shots and 0.6 expected goals just 15 minutes after the break. Gunners goalkeeper David Raya finally had work to do, making three saves during that stretch, while Joao Pedro got as close as any of his teammates to bagging a go-ahead goal. There was some disconnect when it came to the final pass, though, and Arsenal found a different set-piece strategy that worked for them – they would find a loose ball and send it out for a corner, the Blues managing little despite taking five corners after the halftime break.
In a game as predictable as this one, then, leave it to Arsenal to once again find a game-winner on a set piece. This time, it was Declan Rice who connected with Jurien Timber, the latter scoring the eventual game-winner.
There was one familiar habit missing from the game but Chelsea made sure to check that item off the list, too. Pedro Neto picked up the Blues’ seventh red card of the Premier League campaign and ninth across all competitions, reducing them to 10 players just four minutes after Arsenal restored their lead. Neto did not cover himself in glory in the process – his first yellow was for dissent, making him vulnerable to a second for the tackle he committed on Gabriel Martinelli minutes later. The unraveling was complete then, with the Blues only adding one more shot to their second-half tally when Moises Caicedo missed in the dying minutes of the match but it is hard to pin one’s hopes of an equalizer on a shot that generated just 0.05 expected goals on its own. Chelsea’s inconsistency cost them again, the Blues now sitting outside the top five, three points behind Liverpool after the Reds’ win over West Ham United on Saturday. They are, whether they like or not, in the reach of another Premier League record, just two red cards shy of the league’s highest single-season tally for the most received by a team.
There were enough major developments to keep onlookers guessing but by the final whistle, it would be hard to describe the events of Sunday as unpredictable. That is by design for Arsenal, who have risen to the top of the table through sheer consistency, an especially advantageous asset in a Premier League season otherwise defined by irregularity. The Gunners seem to relish the duality, too, slipping into a fully cynical style to close things out – they completed just 55 passes after Neto’s red card while Chelsea had 114 during that time, and they completed just five from the 85th minute on while the Blues had 53. They knew they could cede the ball to the opponent because the opponent was never going to muster enough of a threat; there’s a shrewdness to the strategy, one that requires talent and admirable commitment, but also an inherent dullness that the title race has almost boasted all season long. At the start of March, this is still Arsenal’s title to lose, the Premier League’s most consequential match of the weekend perhaps offering very little in terms of genuine takeaways.
The Gunners have a five-point lead over Manchester City with nine games to go, though City have a game in hand. Premier League action resumes midweek with Arsenal traveling to Brighton and Hove Albion and City hosting relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest, both matches taking place on Wednesday.
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