The Pittsburgh Pirates enter Wednesday in a familiar position: last place in the National League Central, and in possession of the Senior Circuit’s second-worst run differential. It’s early yet, and it’s only fair to disclose that the Pirates are without some key players, right-hander Jared Jones, first baseman Spencer Horwitz, and second baseman Nick Gonzales among them. Nevertheless, it’s fair to look at Pittsburgh and ask the obvious question: are the Pirates about to waste a season of Paul Skenes?
Skenes, 22, has quickly made his mark on the league since debuting last May. He might be the single best starting pitcher in the majors, having amassed a 197 ERA+ over his first 27 assignments. After coming in third place for the National League Cy Young Award in 2024, he’s the clear favorite this year (+170, per Caesars). And while he’s in the earliest stages of his first full season, the clock is already ticking on his long-term future in Pittsburgh. Skenes was credited with a full year of service time last season after winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award. He’s now slated to qualify for arbitration after the 2026 season, and for free agency after 2029.
How far Pirates owner Bob Nutting is willing to stretch financially to keep Skenes around is to be determined. The Pirates haven’t spent so much as $90 million on Opening Day payroll since 2017, however, and it’s only a matter of time before more and more of Pittsburgh’s already limited financial resources are earmarked for the staff ace.
Consider the earning arc of San Diego Padres right-hander Dylan Cease. Cease made $5.7 million in his first season of arbitration eligibility, then $8 million, and now $13.75 million in his final year. Skenes is all but certain to blow those numbers away, a scary thought for a team employing just two players with a salary above $8 million (Mitch Keller and Bryan Reynolds are combining to make more than $27 million). Factor in the possibility of an injury — a sad reality for every pitcher — and the best time to start constructing a winner around Skenes was last winter. The next best time is right now.
You wouldn’t know that based on the Pirates’ cadence. Our Matt Snyder has already addressed Pittsburgh’s uneventful offseason in more detailed fashion. It wasn’t for a lack of curiosity on sixth-year general manager Ben Cherington’s part. The Pirates did inquire on some notable players this winter, sources with other front offices confirmed. Alas, those talks never progressed to an agreement. Pittsburgh’s lack of urgency, and of explicit action, has seeped into the regular season in a few notable ways.
Some teams are a little too quick to remove a struggling reliever from the ninth inning. The Pirates cannot be accused of that crime. David Bednar, a two-time All-Star, was permitted to keep the closer’s role into this season, despite having a 5.77 ERA in 2024. He finally lost those duties (and his spot on the active roster) a few days into this season, but only after he recorded more runs allowed (four) than outs (three) in his first three games.
These Pirates haven’t just accepted suboptimal results in high-leverage situations. They’ve continued undercutting their team defense by experimenting with Oneil Cruz in center field. Cruz, a converted shortstop, first moved to the outfield late last season. His inexperience out there is evident in both the quantity and quality of his misplays. (Cruz, accordingly, ranks near the bottom in Outs Above Average among center fielders.) It’s clear why the Pirates wanted Cruz to give center a shot: he’s a fast, long-striding runner with a big arm. There exists a parallel reality where he takes well to the grass, and perhaps even blossoms into a plus defender. At the same time, one evaluator with a rival club recently quipped that the pitching staff should revolt if the Pirates don’t move him to a corner sooner than later. First base would be the most obvious spot — the Pirates have been using catcher Endy Rodríguez and utility man Enmanuel Valdéz there during Horwitz’s absence — but neither regular corner outfielder has played well, either.
There are other nits to pick with the Pirates’ casual approach to business, but those two examples in particular illustrate the fundamental clash. No one should envy Cherington, who has the impossible task of trying to build a winner with a laughable budget. Still, these debates are going to continue to rage for as long as the Pirates themselves, by necessity or design, are proceeding like they have ample time to get things right. All the while, everyone else is urging Pirates. Not to rush, but to hurry — before it’s too late.
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