Just a few weeks ago, the Yankees had a seven-game lead in the American League East. That’s the widest gap they’ve posted between themselves and the second-place Rays have been back, but the Blue Jays have been as far as eight behind while the Red Sox have been 10 ½ back. Now? The Yankees only lead the Rays by 1 ½ games with the Jays two back and the Red Sox 4 ½ away.
The other three teams have gotten hot in recent weeks while the Yankees have lost six in a row. All of a sudden, it looks like what was shaping up to be a boring race could well be a four-team sprint to the finish line.
What better time than to check in on the AL East?
As always, we’ll discuss from this a bettor perspective, but those uninterested in gambling will still be able to just examine the state of the division right now.
Odds courtesy of Caesars
New York Yankees
Record: 42-31 | Odds to win East: -250
This was -490 Wednesday morning. That’s how much the betting landscape is shifting.
The most jarring thing about the losing streak has been the offense. They’ve scored six runs in those six losses combined, including three straight shutouts. Even their last win was by the score of 1-0. Where are the bats? Then again, the previous four games before this outage yielded 30 runs total, so we know the bats have been awake recently. They likely come back very soon and I believe this is still an above-average offense the rest of the way. Aaron Judge will get hot again, Giancarlo Stanton will provide power, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Cody Bellinger are very nice supporting pieces and even if he’s worse in the second half than the first, Paul Goldschmidt has shown he can still hit.
In the rotation, Max Fried gives them an ace and Carlos Rodón is a strong No. 2. Clarke Schmidt is a good mid-rotation starter and Will Warren seems like has shown flashes of upside. The bullpen has enough talent, too, especially once Luke Weaver returns.
The Yankees were never good enough to believe they’d run away and hide with a 10-game-plus division lead by the All-Star break. The evening out here is the course correction. As such, bettors wanting to find the right time to dive on the Yankees should be advised this is probably it. They remain the best team here and they are motivated to add pieces where needed, as they are one of the teams most in “win now” mode in baseball.
Tampa Bay Rays
Record: 41-33 | Odds to win East: +425
Just to reiterate the shift, this was +775 on Wednesday.
The Rays are doing what they do, which is finding cheap players and getting the most out of them. It’s a misnomer that they “win every trade,” but they find enough value in the majority of their deals and it is showing itself yet again.
The offense has continually gotten better and they are raking here of late. They’ll hit very well in their temporary home all season. The rotation looks promising moving forward with Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot at the top and Zack Littel and Shane Baz showing the ability to be capable mid-rotation arms (though Baz struggled early, he has a 3.18 ERA in his last five starts and the Rays have won all five). There are concerns with Taj Bradley, though.
Speaking of concerns, the Rays’ schedule was stacked with tons of home games early and late in the season with the intent to avoid the stifling Florida heat/humidity combo in the throes of summer. That is to say that they have a boatload of road games in stretches. There are two different periods in particular in July and August, one where 16 of 19 games are on the road and another where 19 of 22 keep them away from home.
The best bet is those hurt the Rays, possibly significantly. If they emerge right in the thick of the AL East race, they are there to stay. I’m wagering they don’t.
They are, however, a formidable team that shouldn’t be taken lightly.
Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 40-33 | Odds to win East: +600
In continuing the theme, this was +900 on Wednesday.
These last few years, it seems like the Blue Jays were one of the best teams in baseball at disappointing their fans, whether in the playoffs, the regular season or even the offseason. It might be tough to shake that feeling, but the Jays have now won six of their last seven series. It’s not a tiny sample and that’s consistent, winning baseball. They’ve gone an MLB-best (tied with the Astros) 15-6 since Memorial Day.
Offensively, power was a problem for a good portion of the season, but during this last 21 games, three players have homered at least five times (Bo Bichette, George Springer and Addison Barger). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still himself. Alejandro Kirk is in one of his hot-hitting phases, as is Ernie Clement. They could use a lot more from Anthony Santander whenever his shoulder heals, but overall, there are reasons to be bullish on the offense.
There’s room for improvement in the rotation when it comes to Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt (0.77 ERA in his first four starts, 4.86 since). Eric Lauer has been good since joining the rotation. The strikeout-heavy bullpen ranks 11th in reliever ERA. They could use another arm or two, but that’s generally true of pretty much every contender.
And on that note, surely Jays’ management is ready to make some additions in front of the trade deadline. They are in a place where the fan base is desperate for a deep playoff run. They’ll be aggressive. They’d better be.
Boston Red Sox
Record: 39-37 | Odds to win East: +1500
Given the trade of Rafael Devers and injury to Alex Bregman, it certainly feels like the lineup has a big void in the middle. What the Red Sox need if they’re going to contend this season is Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer to grow up on the big stage incredibly quickly and look the part of middle-of-the-order needle-movers. It’s possible. We’ve seen it happen plenty of times before, but two at once under this kind of pressure is a tall order. They will get Bregman back in a few weeks, too. Jarren Duran morphing back into the 2024 version would also be beneficial.
The bullpen has been good overall. The rotation has talent, too, with ace Garrett Crochet at the top and established talents Lucas Giolito and Walker Buehler flanked with the youth of Hunter Dobbins.
There’s actually a lot of upside on this roster and they’re now within striking range. They can even rally around the whole “everyone counted us out” thing in the clubhouse after the Devers trade. The front office should be able to add at the trade deadline, too, should they remain in the race.
A run truly isn’t out of the question.
I’m just not buying it this time.
Record: 31-42 | Odds to win East: +9000
After leaving themselves for dead, the Orioles finished May winning five of their last seven and have started June 10-6. A 15-8 stretch is very good and has gotten them to within 6 ½ of the final AL wild-card spot. That’s close enough to consider them contenders, especially knowing that they aren’t still in the rebuild phase and Mike Elias likely feels like he can’t be a seller if they stay this close to a playoff spot.
Being 11 back here, though, with three teams in between the O’s and first place means we shouldn’t spend much time in this space. The Orioles winning the AL East this season would truly be one of the most miraculous occurrences in sports history and it’s just not happening.
The play: Yankees
Yes, still.
I don’t love the number on the Yankees, but it likely won’t get any better in the coming weeks or months. They have the best team here, the resources to add to it and a lead.
If you wanted to look elsewhere, I like the Blue Jays next.
Add Comment