The Atlanta Braves continue to deal with issues to important parts of their starting rotation, though the depth has kept them afloat to this point. The latest casualty is AJ Smith-Shawver, who left his Thursday afternoon start early due to what manager Brian Snitker described as a “pop” in his elbow. The team placed Smith-Shawver on the IL with a strained right elbow almost immediately after the game and he will return to Atlanta for evaluation, but Snitker stressed “it doesn’t look good.”
The Braves’ rotation has survived to this point due to its depth and that’s what’ll get it through in light of this injury, too. At least, they’d better hope so.
Reynaldo López, an All-Star last season, had shoulder surgery and will be re-evaluated around the All-Star break. Spencer Strider has only made three starts this season in his return from Tommy John surgery — a hamstring injury sidelined him after just one start before his latest return. And now there’s the Smith-Shawver injury.
It hasn’t just been that, either, though. Chris Sale, the 2024 Cy Young winner, got off to a rough start through the middle of April before settling in. Spencer Schwellenbach looked amazing through three starts but has posted a 4.66 ERA since, allowing six runs in two different outings. Strider isn’t his old self just yet.
Still, it hasn’t been a disaster. The Braves entered Thursday’s doubleheader in Philadelphia sitting 14th in the majors with a 3.78 rotation ERA.
Grant Holmes deserves some credit here. After 10 years in the minors, Holmes made his MLB debut last season at age 28. Surely the Braves wouldn’t have thought he’d be a rotation fixture in 2025, but he’s made 10 starts and he’s been very good overall, sitting with a 3.68 ERA (111 ERA+). He’s the type of depth piece that helps teams get through rough patches and he’s done exactly that.
Smith-Shawver himself is a big part of what carried the Braves through the Strider and López injuries. He had a 2.33 ERA through his first seven starts and the Braves went 5-2 across those games.
Bryce Elder has also done some quality work after a rough beginning. In his last five starts, he’s pitched to a 3.10 ERA and the Braves have won three of those five games. He was optioned to the minors with the return of Strider, but he could come back and take Smith-Shawver’s spot in the rotation.
Strider was an All-Star who finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting in 2023. We know he’s a top-level ace when he’s fully functional and that might not be too far off. He walked four against the Phillies on Tuesday, but he struck out seven and only gave up one hit in 4 ⅔ innings. He’s on his way.
That leaves Sale and Schwellenbach, who have both been good more often than not this season and we know the upside, especially with Sale.
Odds are, the Braves can get hot — so long as the offense and bullpen do their part — behind a rotation of Sale, Strider, Schwellenbach, Holmes and Elder if that’s what it comes down to. There’s enough ability in that group to expect quality performance. It’s good to have depth and that’s what can withstand injuries to pitchers like López and Smith-Shawver. And in a division like the NL East, where the Phillies and Mets have gotten out to red-hot starts, the Braves will need all the help they can get. Already 10.5 games back and with +115 odds to make the playoffs (via DraftKings), they have some catching up to do.
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