Agent’s Take: Which path will Lamar Jackson take for new Ravens deal?

The clock is ticking for the Baltimore Ravens to reach an agreement with quarterback Lamar Jackson on a contract extension before owner Steve Bisciotti’s target date of March 11 when the 2026 league year starts. Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta expressed optimism that a deal could get done during his NFL Scouting Combine press conference on Feb. 24.

Jackson, who represents himself and has never had an agent, has two years worth $104 million remaining on the five-year, $260 million contract he signed in 2023 after being designated as a franchise player. The two-time NFL MVP is scheduled to make $52 million in 2026 consisting of a $51.25 million base salary, of which $29 million is fully guaranteed, and a $750,000 workout bonus. Jackson’s 2026 salary cap number is $74.5 million. These figures are the same for Jackson in 2027. The $74.5 million is 2026’s second biggest cap number.

Jackson has a no-trade clause. There’s also a provision preventing the Ravens from designating Jackson as a franchise or transition player when his contract expires following the 2027 season.

The 2025 season was one for Jackson to forget. After a fast start, Jackson was slowed by injuries (hamstring, ankle, toe, knee and back). He missed four games because of the hamstring and back ailments. The injuries limited Jackson’s mobility. He rarely played at an MVP level after the hamstring injury in Week 4 until the fourth quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the regular-season finale. The Ravens, who were favorites to win Super Bowl LX before the season started, missed the playoffs with an 8-9 record.

Jackson has significant contract leverage despite an injury-plagued and subpar 2025 season by his standards. It’s because of his tremendous ability, those clauses in his contract and the exorbitant cap number.

The ball is in Jackson’s court on which path he wants to take with a new deal. Jackson could follow in Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s footsteps and leave some money on the table in an effort to enhance his chances to win a Super Bowl or Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s where he exploits his leverage. 

The Bills renegotiated Allen’s contract last March although he had four years worth $154,554,595 remaining on the six-year, $258 million extension, averaging $43 million per year (worth a maximum of $288 million through incentives), he signed in 2021. Allen got a new six-year deal for $330 million. The maximum value is $333 million because of a $500,000 annual incentive for winning the Super Bowl. The contract has an NFL-record $250 million in guarantees. The $147 million fully guaranteed at signing is the second most ever in an NFL contract. 

It’s extremely unusual for a team to effectively rip up a contract with four years left like the Bills did. Allen was clearly focused on cash flow as opposed to maximizing the average yearly salary. At $55 million per year, Allen is tied as the NFL’s second-highest-paid player with Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals), Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) and Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers). 

Allen’s $220 million from 2025 through 2028 is the best four-year cash flow ever in an NFL contract. It surpassed the previous high of $219 million (2024 through 2027) in Prescott’s four-year, $240 million contract extension signed in 2024 that made him the NFL’s first $60 million per player. Being named the 2024 NFL MVP over Jackson should have given Allen enough ammunition to not only become the cash-flow king but also the league’s highest-paid player instead being in a tie for second.

Jackson focusing on total cash instead of the extension or new money average would be a huge negotiating win for the Ravens. For example, Jackson barely topping Allen’s maximum value with $334 million over six years running through the 2031 season would be a four-year, $230 million extension after subtracting out his two remaining contract years worth $104 million. At $57.5 million per year, Jackson would be the NFL’s second-highest-paid player behind Prescott.

Jackson’s four-year cash flow from 2026 through 2029 would need to be more than Allen’s $220 million. Besting Allen’s record $250 million in guarantees and having at least $150 million guaranteed at signing would likely be necessities as well.

The most aggressive position Jackson could take in exploiting his leverage, like Prescott did, is insisting that his current contract should be adjusted for salary cap inflation. The salary cap was $224.8 million when Jackson signed in 2023. The NFL recently informed teams that the 2026 salary cap is expected to be between $301.2 million and $305.7 million.

That’s approximately $70 million per year in a 2026 salary cap environment. The 16.67% increase over Prescott’s contract would be the biggest jump in the quarterback market from a single deal since the 2011 lockout ended, outside of Patrick Mahomes’ unique 10-year, $450 million extension, averaging $45 million per year, with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2020. Jackson could justify the huge increase because the Ravens reset the safety market by 18.12% when signing Kyle Hamilton to a front-loaded four-year, $100.4 million extension, averaging $25.1 million per year, in August.

Jackson should want the first three years fully guaranteed (2026 through 2028) with total guarantees ending after the fourth year (2029) if driving an extremely hard bargain. That would be upward to $225 million fully guaranteed at signing and $275 million in overall guarantees based on Hamilton’s structure.

The Ravens will surely prefer to repeat history with a Jackson contract extension. His $52 million per year was 1.96% more than the $51 million per year extension Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts received a few weeks earlier. A similar increase over Prescott’s $60 million per year would put Jackson at $61.175 million per year.

A happy medium could be using Prescott’s situation as a guide. Prescott’s $60 million per year was 9.09% more than the $55 million per year quarterback salary standard prior to his deal. A comparable increase applied to Prescott’s $60 million is $65 million per year.

Regardless of the road Jackson takes, his new deal will likely include a record signing bonus, which was the case in 2023. His $72.5 million was the most ever in an NFL contract eclipsing Prescott’s $66 million in his 2021 deal. Prescott’s current contract included an NFL-record $78,453,333 signing bonus.

As much as $34 million of 2026 cap space could be created by breaking Prescott’s signing bonus record. For example, Jackson getting an $85 million signing bonus prorated at $17 million annually from 2026 through 2030 with his $1.3 million league-minimum base salary and the $750,000 workout bonus remaining a part of the deal would lower his 2026 cap number to $41.55 million, which would free up $32.95 million of 2026 cap room. There is already $22.5 million of 2026 proration from Jackson’s signing bonus and the two option bonuses in his current contract.

Jackson really should fight to eliminate or reduce his workout bonus in a new deal. He has left $1.5 million on the table because he didn’t have the requisite 80% participation in the offseason workouts needed to earn the bonuses in 2024 or 2025.

The Ravens have a backup plan if an agreement can’t be reached in a timely manner. Bisciotti indicated in a January press conference after John Harbaugh was fired as head coach that Jackson’s contract would be restructured rather than carrying his $74.5 million cap hit. 

The Ravens would free up $37,462,500 of 2026 cap room by converting Jackson’s entire 2026 compensation minus his league-minimum salary and the workout bonus into signing bonus. This $49.95 million would be prorated over Jackson’s remaining two contract years and the two dummy/voiding years already existing to lower his 2026 cap number to $37,037,500. Jackson’s cap number for 2027, the final real year of his contract, would increase from $74.5 million to $86,987,500. 

Just imagine the type of negotiating leverage Jackson would have in 2027 by having a bounce-back season. The quarterback market could dramatically escalate in 2027, as 2024 draft picks, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Caleb Williams will be eligible for contract extensions. At least one of the three should reset the quarterback market. 

Jackson could let the market further develop with these quarterbacks before doing a new deal. With Jackson returning to some semblance of his previous form in 2026, he would practically be able to name his own price in a 2027 contract extension since the Ravens would be powerless to prevent him from leaving in 2028 free agency if his contract expired.