After the House v. NCAA Settlement: Mid-major schools fighting for seat at college football’s shrinking table

A new chapter in college athletics has begun … but the story is far from finished. This summer’s landmark House v. NCAA settlement cracked open the door to revenue sharing and ushered in sweeping reforms, but even a multibillion-dollar agreement can’t escape turbulence. Legal challenges are already mounting, Congress is inching closer to direct involvement, and the sport’s power brokers are bracing for another round of seismic decisions as key media deals — including that involving the College Football Playoff — near expiration in the early 2030s.

Using the House settlement’s 10-year timeline as a guiding framework, CBS Sports spoke with dozens of stakeholders to explore what the future of college athletics might look like by 2035. Part 4 of this four-part series examines the future of mid-major conferences and their programs as power conferences gain more control (and money) in the system.

Check out the rest of the series here: Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3

College athletics has entered a new frontier in the revenue-sharing era, but another trend is emerging as programs jockey for position in the conference landscape: franchise expansion fees.

As conference realignment slows and revenue sharing accelerates, mid-major programs are offering millions just for a seat at the table. Few, however, are pulling out a chair.

It’s not the first time. It won’t be the last.

In this chaotic new era, desperation breeds innovation and risk. Schools are rewriting the playbook and borrowing from professional sports to stay relevant. In pro leagues, investors pay up to $1 billion in expansion fees for start-up franchises. Now, as money drives decisions in the collegiate space, deep-pocketed mid-majors are following suit.

SMU gave up roughly $360 million — nine years of media rights revenue — to join the ACC in 2024. American Conference member Memphis offered the Big 12 a package worth more than $200 million in corporate sponsorships and pledged to forgo media revenue for five years. Big 12 officials still said no.

Memphis’ offer may have been an inflection point.

“It’s like a quarterback resetting the market in NFL free agency,” an industry executive told CBS Sports. “Memphis just reset the market. Now if you’re a [Group of Six] school and want to get into the Power Four, Memphis’ offer is your starting point.”

But how many programs are willing — and able — to spend hundreds of millions just to be considered? Not many.

So why would the Big 12 turn down all that money — especially as conference members face rising costs tied to revenue-sharing payments with players? Sources told CBS Sports that short-term cash infusions don’t always outweigh long-term considerations, including cultural fit (academics and mission) and impact on financial sustainability.

“The bottom line is you’re going to have to create a value in the next cycle of TV negotiations,” the executive said.

Scrambling for a home

Right now, mid-major programs are simply trying to survive — and the lengths they’re willing to go to do so are staggering.

The desire to improve financial and competitive standing has plunged college athletics into an era of upheaval. The numbers are staggering. Since 2022, at least 49 FBS schools have changed — or will soon change — conferences, a turnover rate of 36% nationwide.

No group has felt the churn more than low- and mid-majors. The dominoes began falling in 2021 when Oklahoma and Texas announced plans to leave the Big 12 for the SEC.

The Pac-12 nearly collapsed after all but two members were poached by the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten. Since then, the Mountain West and Pac-12 have traded blows. Five Mountain West schools are set to leave for the Pac-12, and the shakeup has triggered litigation over exit and poaching fees totaling more than $100 million.

And the churn likely isn’t over.

“I’m not on my heels, I’m on my toes. I really am,” American Conference commissioner Tim Pernetti told CBS Sports. “Realignment has been a constant discussion in this industry. I don’t expect that’s going to change anytime soon, but I know exactly what this is. We’re flattered people are interested in our programs, but we’re not surprised by it.”

Anxiety is only growing. What if power leagues, now armed with expanded NCAA voting control, widen the competitive and financial gap even further?

“[Mid-majors] have no shot of finding $5 million to throw at football, much less $20.5 million,” former Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said.

The American may lead the Group of Six in financial competitiveness. Pernetti introduced minimum investment guidlines requiring members to share at least $10 million in additional benefits with athletes over a three-year span beginning this year. Whether that translates to success on the field remains to be seen.

“Everybody fixates really, really quickly on the differences in resources,” MAC commissioner Jon Steinbrecher told CBS Sports. “And I keep going back to the fact there’s always been differences in resources. Now we’ve added some different layers to it, obviously, with the additional benefits that can be provided beyond grant of aid, and certainly NIL, but I don’t know how much of it is really changing.”

Meanwhile, the Power Four are consolidating control. This week, the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC gained oversight of 65% of the NCAA’s governance structure, giving them increased power to shape the future of college sports.

No wonder Memphis and others want in.

“I understand the ambition, and honestly, it takes guts (for Memphis) to make a run at it, but I’m not surprised by it,” Pernetti said. “Look at this conference historically. We build strong, resilient programs, and we’ve got a conference that has value. I’m focused on trying to make sure we’re building and making this a conference that people want to stay and people want to come to. I’m not going to spend any time looking in the rearview mirror. We’re building this conference looking through the windshield.”

Dog eat dog

The American was the primary target in the Pac-12’s rebuilding efforts last year. The Pac-12 courted Tulane, USF, UTSA and Memphis, but all chose to stay. The American is actively seeking private capital investment to improve operations and infuse cash, Pernetti said. No major conference has finalized a private equity deal yet, but interest has grown since the House v. NCAA settlement. The Big Ten and Big 12 have held serious talks with firms.

“I use the word partner for a reason,” Pernetti said. “Everybody’s impression of this is it’s about money. Certainly, it’s about access to capital, but I’m looking for the right partner, because the capital is great, but if you don’t have a partner that actually can get in the boat with you and help you grow the business, the capital is less meaningful. Who’s going to actually get in business with you to help you grow it, protect it and innovate it?”

For now, realignment has slowed.

The Mountain West backfilled its ranks with Hawaii, Grand Canyon, UTEP and UC-Davis. After losing SMU to the ACC and three more schools to the Big 12 the American targeted Mountain West schools, but several declined. Instead, it added six teams from Conference USA. CUSA, which also lost teams to the Sun Belt, filled its vacancies by adding five FCS programs over the last three years.

It’s enough to make any commissioner’s head spin. What’s next — a Super League? More realignment? A wider financial gulf? Less postseason access? Another cliff?

“We want to be able to let the top of the ecosystem thrive, but what I hope doesn’t happen is we lose the bottom,” Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez said. “I think there’s a way, and I’m talking about the entirety — 300-plus schools, top to bottom, not just the 10 FBS conferences — that we can exist in a world where there’s still access for everyone, but that the bottom doesn’t hold the top back.”

Meanwhile, more cash-rich FCS programs are scrambling to climb the ladder before the door closes. Sacramento State pitched itself as a future FBS power, boasting $50 million in NIL pledges and a plan for a new 25,000-seat stadium. But without a conference invite, the NCAA denied its waiver to move up in June.

Now, Sacramento State is pushing back. In a bold move, the school hired attorney Jeffrey Kessler, co-counsel in the House v. NCAA case, to explore legal action.

“I believe Sacramento State has marshalled the resources to compete at the top level of college sports and it is wrong for the NCAA to deprive the schools, its fans and community of that opportunity,” Kessler told CBS Sports.

In the new model of college athletics, ambition isn’t enough. It takes capital, connections and timing. And for those left outside the gates, the window may already be closing.