The AFC West sent three teams to the postseason a year ago, headlined by the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs won 15 games in 2024 en route to a third straight Super Bowl appearance, but could not make a historical three-peat happen against the Eagles. Philadelphia dominated Kansas City in a way which makes many believe the best days for this team might be behind them. The Chargers and Broncos should get better after tasting early success after major changes. L.A. made the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first season, while Denver was able to do the same with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. The Raiders made a change at head coach and quarterback this offseason, bringing in Pete Carroll and Geno Smith to reunite the duo from Seattle. Las Vegas could be in play to improve, which makes the task of getting out of the AFC West that much harder for Kansas City. So how should you bet the Chiefs when it comes to the NFL odds?
For all of my daily best bets, go to the Inside the Lines blog.
Chiefs are Barely Above 50% to Win the Division… Again
You would think a team that won 15 games, made the Super Bowl three straight seasons, won the division nine straight times and gets its best receiver back from injury would be better than -105 to win the division. That’s how vulnerable the Chiefs are. They deserve all the praise in the world for having this much success and their ability to win close games and execute in the clutch. They are vulnerable because they simply are not that dominant and as a result find themselves in way more close, tight situations than they should be in.
Cats can avoid death in miraculous ways but they only have nine lives.
| OUTCOME | KANSAS CITY | LA CHARGERS | DENVER | LAS VEGAS |
| MISS PLAYOFFS | +270, 27% | 22.7% | +105, 48.8% | 30.3% | -105, 51.2% | 43.4% | -400, 80% | 84.8% |
| LOSE WC ROUND | +290, 25.6% | 31.4% | +280, 26.3% | 32% | +280, 26.3% | 26.7% | +600, 14.3% | 11% |
| LOSE DIV ROUND | +320, 23.8% | 24.6% | +470, 17.5% | 21.6% | +500, 16.7% | 17.9% | +1400, 6.7% | 3.2% |
| LOSE AFC CHAMP | +550, 15.4% | 12.5% | +1000, 9.1% | 10.1% | +1100, 8.3% | 7.4% | +3500, 2.8% | 0.7% |
| LOSE SUPER BOWL | +1000, 9.1% | 4.6% | +2300, 4.2% | 3.6% | +2600, 3.7% | 2.5% | +10000, 1% | 0.2% |
| SUPER BOWL CHAMP | +850, 10.5% | 4.2% | +2300, 4.2% | 2.4% | +2700, 3.6% | 2.1% | +11000, 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Odds, Odds Implied % | Simulation % Bold Indicates Model Betting Value | ||||
Their +59 point differential last season was third in their own division. Denver nearly doubled them up at +114. The beating they took against the Eagles in the Super Bowl is going to change how they play. They will want Patrick Mahomes to go back to being the 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown player he was. The best bet on the board above would be for them to lose in the Wild Card round at +290 on FanDuel. The competition in the division makes it a real possibility that they don’t have home-field advantage in this round. Get the latest Bet365 promo here:
Justin Herbert skeptics have every right to criticize him for his total lack of playoff success but the Chargers in Jim Harbaugh’s second year are a dangerous regular season team. After a month of getting used to the new system, Herbert took off in terms of his passing stats. Like Mahomes, he should also revert back to being the prolific passer. L.A. won 11 games with a +5.9 point differential per game. There is no reason to think that will get marginally worse which is why I like the Chargers to win Over 9.5 games at -110 on bet365. Bet it on DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets:
The model is high on the Broncos as well. Nix dominated statistically in the second half of the season. The bad running game could be elite with rookie RJ Harvey and the super talented but oft-injured JK Dobbins. Pat Surtain was the rare cornerback who won Defensive Player of the Year. The lines are tight so there isn’t a bunch of value. The best is for Broncos to make the playoffs at -118 on FanDuel, where new users get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager:
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