The AFC South has seen a good amount of parity in recent seasons, as there have been three different division winners over the past four seasons, with the Houston Texans in 2023-24, the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2022 and the Tennessee Titans in 2021. Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts haven’t finished atop the AFC South standings since 2014, back when Andrew Luck was under center. So let’s preview the AFC South and check out which bets have strong value from the SportsLine Projection Model.
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AFC South Preview: Chaos, Ceiling, and a Whole Lot of Parity
The AFC South remains one of the NFL’s most unpredictable divisions, where parity reigns and playoff hopes hinge on health, turnovers, and rookie development. Let’s break down each team’s trajectory heading into the season.
| OUTCOME | HOUSTON | JACKSONVILLE | INDIANAPOLIS | TENNESSEE |
| MISS PLAYOFFS | +115, 46.5% | 48% | -210, 67.7% | 70.8% | -230, 69.7% | 85.5% | -470, 82.5% | 81.5% |
| LOSE WC ROUND | +270, 27% | 19.5% | +390, 20.4% | 19.1% | +420, 19.2% | 9.7% | +700, 12.5% | 13.2% |
| LOSE DIV ROUND | +410, 19.6% | 21.8% | +750, 11.8% | 8% | +800, 11.1% | 4% | +1600, 5.9% | 4.3% |
| LOSE AFC CHAMP | +1000, 9.1% | 7% | +2200, 4.3% | 1.6% | +2100, 4.5% | 0.5% | +4900, 2% | 0.8% |
| LOSE SUPER BOWL | +2200, 4.3% | 2.3% | +5000, 2% | 0.4% | +5500, 1.8% | 0.2% | +12000, 0.8% | 0.2% |
| SUPER BOWL CHAMP | +2400, 4% | 1.4% | +7000, 1.4% | 0.1% | +7000, 1.4% | 0.1% | +17000, 0.6% | 0% |
| Odds, Odds Implied % | Simulation % Bold Indicates Model Betting Value | ||||
The Texans are the favorite but are still plus money to repeat as division champs, showing how much parity there is in the division. Joe Mixon’s injury could be more than offset by the pickup of Nick Chubb—if Chubb returns to form. Last year, he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, a steep drop from his career 5.5 YPC. That’s a red flag. The receiving corps is also in flux. Tank Dell is hurt, Stefon Diggs walked, and Nico Collins—while talented—has a history of missing 3–4 games per season. The team is relying heavily on rookies to fill the gaps.
Despite these issues, the defense is improving, and there’s optimism around C.J. Stroud bouncing back from down year 2. We don’t think he regressed as badly as most think and as much as the stats in Year 2 vs. Year 1 indicated. He had a much tougher schedule in year 2 and had some of his worst moments on the biggest stages.
Even with our concerns, the best bet for Houston is for them to win the AFC South at +110 on DraftKings, which implies 47.6%, which is under our 54% in sims. Sign up for DraftKings here and get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly:
Oddsmakers have the Jaguars pegged fairly, but there’s reason to believe they could outperform expectations. Last season, Jacksonville was plagued by a lack of forced turnovers. They only forced 3 turnovers in road games last season on their way to a 1-8 road record and a -13.6 per game point differential. What happens if they get 1 turnover per game?
This year, the ceiling is high, especially at wide receiver. If they can simply be average in the turnover department, they’re a strong bet to go over again. The second half of last season saw them leaning heavily on rookies, which contributed to defensive lapses—most notably allowing a staggering 420 yards per game on the road. That number is almost impossible to replicate, and regression to the mean should help.
There has been a lot of optimistic steam on Jacksonville, so right now there are no lines with positive model value, so let’s go ahead and take the +390 for them to lose in the Wild Card round at 19% in sims on FanDuel. New users can get $150 in bonus bets at FanDuel now:
The Colts are in a strange place. They’ve labeled Daniel Jones a “co-starter,” which is rarely a good sign. If Anthony Richardson isn’t firmly established by Year Three, it starts to feel like a Trey Lance situation in San Francisco—high potential, low payoff.
The passing game is such a mess that the leading fantasy WR on the team is Josh Downs, who is WR44 according to the Fantasy Football Today Consensus. I love Tyler Warren, but last season the combined TE output in Indy would not even have been a top 30 fantasy TE last season.
It’s not a fun bet, but at -230, 69.7% odds on FanDuel and an 85.5% occurrence in sims, we’ll take the Colts to miss the playoffs. If they lose to the Dolphins in Week 1, their chances drop to just 9%. Even with a win, they’d be at 81% to miss the playoffs.
Two years ago it was C.J. Stroud statistically having a “once in a generation” rookie season to come out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Last season it was Jayden Daniels statistically having a “once in a generation” rookie season to come out of nowhere to make the playoffs. Both QBs are great, but the biggest reason they made the playoffs was they had a very easy schedule. Tennessee has the easiest schedule in the AFC based on our model’s power rankings, so could No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward follow in those footsteps? Get the latest Bet365 bonus here:
I think putting a sprinkle on the Titans to win the AFC South at +800 on bet365 (implies 11%, while the sim has 13.4%) is a worthwhile longshot play.
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