The AFC North has been around since 2002, and no team has been able to take home the division crown in three consecutive seasons. The Baltimore Ravens are the AFC North favorites ahead of the 2025-26 campaign, so will they make division history? Or will the Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers or Cleveland Browns play spoiler? For all of my daily best bets, go to the Inside the Lines blog.
Ravens Favored and a Great Bet for First AFC North Three-Peat
Recent publications rank the Ravens as having the most talented roster in the league. Their question marks are nitpicks. Can Tyler Loop replace Justin Tucker? Maybe not peak Justin Tucker, but probably 2024 Justin Tucker. In a recent stadium practice, Loop was 11-11, including a 60-yarder that would have been good from 67, so we know he at least has the leg strength to move from playing at Arizona to the cold-weather AFC North.
The Ravens don’t have superstar names at edge rusher, but they have two double-digit sack artists from last season (Odafe Oweh with 20 more pounds of muscle and Kyle Van Noy) and drafted Mike Green, who has really flashed in training camp. Consensus draft grades gave the Ravens an A for taking Malaki Starks. Most would have given them an A for taking Mike Green if Green did not have off-field concerns. Instead, they got him with their late second-round pick.
| OUTCOME | BALTIMORE | CINCINNATI | PITTSBURGH | CLEVELAND |
| MISS PLAYOFFS | +420, 19.2% | 5.3% | +115, 46.5% | 57.6% | -165, 62.3% | 46.6% | -1200, 92.3% | 98.4% |
| LOSE WC ROUND | +300, 25% | 19.6% | +260, 27.8% | 22.6% | +350, 22.2% | 27% | +1500, 6.3% | 1.3% |
| LOSE DIV ROUND | +290, 25.6% | 23.1% | +460, 17.9% | 12.5% | +700, 12.5% | 15.8% | +3700, 2.6% | 0.3% |
| LOSE AFC CHAMP | +480, 17.2% | 21.3% | +1000, 9.1% | 4.4% | +1600, 5.9% | 6.5% | +11000, 0.9% | 0% |
| LOSE SUPER BOWL | +900, 10% | 12.7% | +2200, 4.3% | 1.8% | +3500, 2.8% | 2.4% | +22000, 0.5% | 0% |
| SUPER BOWL CHAMP | +650, 13.3% | 18% | +2200, 4.3% | 1.1% | +4200, 2.3% | 1.7% | +37000, 0.3% | 0% |
| Odds, Odds Implied % | Simulation % Bold Indicates Model Betting Value | ||||
I am the world’s biggest Ravens fan, but also a realist and don’t look at my team through rose-colored glasses.
I’m comfortable betting on them to both lose the AFC Championship because they play their worst game of the year in the biggest moment (which is their MO) AND taking them to win the Super Bowl as they finally break through like the ’91 Jordan Bulls. The best Super Bowl value as I publish is Ravens +700 on Caesars which you may want to act on now because bet365 has them all the way down to +600 (+650 consensus). Get 10 profit boosts on Caesars as a new user when you sign up here:
The odds make the Bengals the 2nd best team in the division, but the sims have them third, again. The things that plagued them last year (slow start, bad defense, bad pass protection, lack of running) aren’t slated to improve given the issues with Trey Hendrickson and first-round pick Shemar Stewart. They could have taken an offensive lineman at that spot. They have the same undersized Chase Brown as their only “proven” RB.
The +125 on DraftKings to Miss the Playoffs (implies 44%) is not only better than the consensus +115, it is much better than the -130 our model would price it at. DraftKings is offering new users over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets here:
The Steelers were able to come to terms with TJ Watt. Aaron Rodgers, without the scrambling ability he had in his prime, is too predictable and hittable. He won’t be a real threat in the playoffs. But he’s certainly good enough to fulfill the guarantee that Mike Tomlin will NOT have a losing season. You can get Steelers over 8.5 wins at +100 on both FanDuel and bet365 at the moment.
They are taking the well-known saying that if “you think you have two good quarterbacks, it means you have none” to a ridiculous next level with now five potential starters: Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders, and now even Tyler Huntley. They have three former division opponents and two rookies.
The -1200 is too steep to bet on them to miss the playoffs even though the model has plenty of value. Instead, I like them to win under 5.5 games at -140 on DraftKings. They are averaging 4.8 wins per simulation with just a 34% chance of going over. The model only favors them in one game (54% vs. the Titans at home) and has them winning over 40% in just one other game (42% at New England).
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