The Atlantic Coast Conference was rather weak last college basketball season and got just four teams into the NCAA Tournament. The ACC is better this campaign and could get as many as nine schools in the dance on Selection Sunday depending in part on what happens today regarding three bubble clubs playing first-round ACC Tournament games from Charlotte.
Note that 15 of the 18 league teams make the event, with Georgia Tech, Boston College and Notre Dame sitting out. The Yellow Jackets and Eagles have since fired their head coaches.
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Of the bubble trio playing today, I believe that No. 11 seed SMU will go dancing as long as it does not lose in a 4:30 ET tip to disappointing and No. 14 Syracuse in possibly the last game as Orange coach for Adrian Autry – he’s not going to be back next season. Can you believe that Syracuse haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2021? That’s a story for another day.
DraftKings has the Mustangs at -210 to reach the dance, with No at +175, and I recommend Yes barring a bad loss Tuesday. The school hasn’t been there since 2017. There wasn’t much doubt about an at-large bid prior to a four-game skid to close the regular season.
Coach Andy Enfield’s club doesn’t have that one signature non-conference win – probably Texas A&M — but still a very solid NET ranking of 39. CBS Sports bracketology has SMU among its Last 4 In and in the First Four against fellow No. 11 seed Missouri. The SportsLine Projection Model drops SMU to First 4 Out with a loss here.
The Mustangs are led by senior guard Boopie Miller, who leads the ACC in minutes played per game (35.1) and steals (2.32) while ranking second in assists per (6.6) and fifth in scoring (19.4). He had a career-high 32 points in the finale.
There is one major injury question entering the postseason, and that’s senior guard BJ Edwards. He missed the final three of the regular season with an ankle injury. He’s third on the team in scoring (12.7 PPG) and second in rebounds (5.7 RPG) while leading in steals (2.3 SPG). Edwards is the one of three players in the nation with multiple triple-doubles, so that losing streak makes sense now.
On Feb. 14, SMU lost 79-78 at Syracuse as the Orange rallied from a 12-point, second-half deficit to win on Nate Kingz’s layup with two seconds left. But SU enters on a five-game skid. The winner of this game faces No. 6 Louisville in the second round. That should be SMU, whether Edwards plays or not.
The first game Tuesday is No. 10 seed Stanford vs. No. 15 Pittsburgh with a 2 ET tip, and it’s an absolute must-have for the Cardinal, who are trending the right way on a four-game winning streak. While SMU is 8-10 in league play, Stanford is 9-9 and also sits among Last 4 In via CBS Sports and in the First Four vs. fellow No. 11 seed VCU.
The model gives the Cardinal a 45.1% shot of getting in the Dance, but DraftKings is not nearly as optimistic with Yes at +360 (equates to 21.7%) and No at -550. The team’s NET ranking of 59 is not good enough, so the Cardinal probably would have to win tonight and then Wednesday over No. 7 seed and free-falling NC State.
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Don’t rule that out behind stellar freshman Ebuka Okorie, who led an 85-84 win at the Wolfpack in the regular-season finale with 33 points. He ranks fifth in the country in scoring at 23.1 points per game and second among freshmen, behind only BYU’s AJ Dybantsa; he leads the ACC in scoring, just above Duke freshman sensation and Wooden Award lock Cameron Boozer. Okorie has tied Duke’s Marvin Bagley III (2017-18) for the most 30-point games by a freshman in ACC history with seven.
Yes is good value here — just don’t lose to Pitt, which needed Saturday’s 71-69 OT victory at Syracuse in order to claim the final spot in the ACC field. Stanford started this current four-game winning streak with a 75-67 home win over the Panthers on Feb. 25. Okorie had 34 points.
ACC Tournament model win rate
Odds via DraftKings
- No. 1 Duke 47.9% (-350)
- No. 6 Louisville 17.3% (+950)
- No. 2 Virginia 13.7% (+650)
- No. 4 North Carolina 6.7% (+2200)
- No. 3 Miami 4.2% (+2000)
- No. 5 Clemson 3.6% (+4000)
- No. 7 NC State 3.2% (+5000)
- No. 11 SMU 1.7% (+15000)
- No. 9 California 0.4% (+25000)
- No. 13 Wake Forest 0.4% (+80000)
- No. 10 Stanford 0.3% (+30000)
- No. 12 Virginia Tech 0.3% (+20000)
- No. 8 Florida State 0.3% (+13000)
- No. 15 Pittsburgh 0.1% (+80000)
- No. 14 Syracuse 0.0% (+80000)
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The finale of the tripleheader from the Spectrum Center at 9 ET is No. 13 Wake Forest vs. No. 12 Virginia Tech, with the winner facing No. 5 Clemson on Wednesday. The Demon Deacons will miss the NCAA Tournament for a ninth straight season as pressure mounts on coach Steve Forbes. The school simply can’t afford his buyout.
CBS Sports does not list Virginia Tech anywhere among its bracketology, but DraftKings offers odds of +550 to go dancing with No at -900. The model gives the Hokies only a 4.1% chance with a NET ranking of 53. A regular-season sweep of rival Virginia would have sure helped, but UVA escaped 76-72 on Saturday. Tech coach Mike Young went ballistic in the post-game press conference, but the school already has announced he will return next season.
Per Steve Makinen, ACC opening round favorites are 23-4 SU and 16-11 ATS (59.3%) since 2016. My tournament pick would be Virginia simply as it avoids Duke until the final, and maybe the Blue Devils are unable to beat North Carolina a third time in the other semifinal. If only the Heels had Caleb Wilson. The title game is Saturday night.
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