New York Yankees star Aaron Judge was held out of Saturday’s lineup and will be placed on the injured list ahead of Sunday’s series finale against the Philadelphia Phillies after suffering a flexor strain in his right elbow. Since tests showed no UCL damage, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters after the team’s 9-4 loss that he’s optimistic Judge will miss only 10 days. Nonetheless, Boone cautioned that Judge may be limited to designated hitting for a period upon his return to the lineup.
“I couldn’t throw. That kind of sums it up,” Judge said of his ailment.
The Yankees have not yet officially placed Judge on the IL, nor have they made a corresponding move. It would be natural to wonder if this could be the entry point for Spencer Jones, the 6-foot-7 prospect who used to elicit unfair comparisons to Judge. Jones, 24, has been on a heater since being promoted to Triple-A a few weeks ago, hitting .400/.457/.950 with 13 home runs in 94 plate appearances to date.
But calling up Jones appears unlikely, however, for a few reasons we’ll explain below.
1. Logistics
A dirty secret about baseball roster moves is that a lot of them are determined by logistics. The rules that govern the game limit how many players can be on the 40-player roster, how many times they can be optioned, and so on and so forth. In turn, teams are careful about adding players before they want — or, oftentimes — need to be added, just so that they can maintain as much flexibility as possible.
Jones, for his part, is not currently on the 40-player roster. If that was the long and short of it, he would be at a disadvantage to some of the alternatives who are already on the 40-player roster, such as Everson Pereira and Bryan De La Cruz.
But, predictably, that isn’t the complete story: there are other factors reducing the chances of Jones being the one to replace Judge on the active roster.
2. Space and time
Consider this an easy way to address two birds with one subheading.
Foremost, Jones is dealing with his own physical issues. He missed Friday’s game because of back spasms, and he wasn’t listed in Saturday’s starting lineup, either. No team is going to promote a player with iffy availability to replace an injured star.
There’s also the reality that the Yankees ostensibly want Jones playing everyday — not something he would be entitled to on the big-league roster. Even before Judge suffered his own injury, the Yankees were having to ration plate appearances for a group that included Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, Jasson Domínguez, Paul Goldschmidt and Ben Rice.
To put it another way: adding Pereira or De La Cruz instead of Jones is defensible, in part because whoever the Yankees add likely won’t play much before Judge is back.
These kinds of decisions aren’t just about the short-term outlook though; the Yankees have to keep the long-term picture in mind, too. Hear that? Sounds like a segue.
3. Developmental concerns
For as effective as Jones has been in Triple-A, there’s reason to be patient with his development. Namely, he continues to swing and miss at extreme levels. Coming into Saturday, Jones’ Triple-A whiff rate was 36.4%; his in-zone whiff rate was 30.6%.
For some perspective on what those numbers mean, consider that only one qualified big-league hitter has swung and missed at a higher frequency this season than Jones has at the Triple-A level: Colorado Rockies first baseman Michael Toglia. (Coincidentally, the next two highest swing-and-miss rates among qualified MLB hitters belong to Yankees: recent trade acquisition Ryan McMahon and Judge.) As for the in-zone aspect, only one qualified MLB hitter was even over 27%: San Francisco Giants star Rafael Devers.
Jones’ immense strength gives him a chance to overcome his contact woes. But, if you’re the Yankees, there’s no real harm in letting him continue to work on his game away from the spotlight — particularly when the logistics and timing suggest that he isn’t the best option at hand.
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