Aaron Judge injury update: What slugger’s return from IL means for struggling Yankees and the MVP race

The struggling New York Yankees will get their captain back Tuesday. Aaron Judge has been activated off the injured list after missing the minimum 10 days with a flexor strain, the team announced. The loss was New York’s fourth straight, putting them only 1 ½ games up on a wild card spot.

“It’s Aaron Judge. We know what he means to our lineup, to the guys in the room,” manager Aaron Boone Boone told reporters Monday when asked about activating Judge (via MLB.com). “So to get him back, we’re certainly excited about that. And then hopefully, shortly thereafter, he’s back out in the field too.”

Judge suffered the injury making a throw two weeks ago and initially tried to play through it, but his throwing was limited, and a stint on the injured list was needed to let it calm down. Tests showed his UCL — the Tommy John surgery ligament — is intact. The injury is to his right arm, his back arm when hitting, and Judge said it doesn’t give him any trouble when swinging.

Judge took three days off from hitting early last week, then ramped up from tee work to batting practice to taking at-bats against minor leaguers at the team’s spring training complex this past weekend. He is ready to hit but is still days away from beginning a throwing program. The injury will limit him to DH duty for the time being.

The Yankees won four of their first six games without Judge but have since lost four straight, including Monday’s walk-off loss to the Texas Rangers and a disastrous loss against the Miami Marlins last Friday, when all their new trade deadline additions blew the game. Getting the best hitter in the sport will obviously help, but there’s more to it than reinserting Judge into the lineup.

Here’s what you need to know about Judge’s return to the Yankees.

The outfield and DH picture is complicated

Outfielder Austin Slater, who was acquired in a minor trade with the Chicago White Sox last week, exited Monday’s game with a hamstring injury. He was placed on the injured list in a corresponding move for Judge. That’s the easy part.

Slotting Judge in as the DH is a fine idea and straightfoward, though Giancarlo Stanton is a full-time DH now and he has been excellent since making his 2025 debut on June 16: .270/.343/.532 with 10 home runs in 36 games. Stanton missed the start of the season with tennis elbow in both elbows. He slugged his sixth homer in 12 games Monday.

Stanton, 35, has not played the field since Sept. 14, 2023. He’s played only 110 games in the outfield since 2019. Stanton is a bottom-of-the-scale runner at this point in his career, so his outfield range is limited, and he’s also dealt with a long list of lower body muscle pulls. The more he runs, the more he risks injury.

Despite that, the Yankees have discussed playing Stanton in the outfield as a way to keep his bat in the lineup while Judge is limited to DH. Stanton started taking fly balls and doing outfield work last week. Boone indicated the earliest Stanton would play the outfield is on the club’s upcoming homestand, which begins Friday.

“I believe (our best chance to win is) going to be for me to be in the outfield. I’ll be working out there this coming week and be ready when needed,” Stanton said last week (via the New York Daily News). “… It’s not going to be like I’ve never been out there before.”

The Yankees are struggling and tumbling down the standings. Stanton’s been too productive and these games are too important to take his bat out of the lineup completely. Right field in Yankee Stadium is tiny. Expect the Yankees to hide Stanton in right field for a few innings at home, then replace him for defense late. They can make do with that until Judge can return to the outfield.

Judge won’t help the run prevention

Obviously, Judge is a great player and the Yankees are better when he’s in the lineup, but offense has not been their main problem the last few weeks. The pitching, both starters and relievers, has gone in the tank. The Yankees have a 5.85 ERA since July 1 and have allowed at least six runs 14 times in their last 29 games. They’ve allowed 30 runs in their last four games.

Look at these numbers since July 1:

Scoring 5.45 runs per game should be enough to win. The offense, even without Judge these last 10 games, has more than done its job this year. The Yankees are fifth in runs per game since July 1 and second with 5.17 runs per game overall this season. Only the Chicago Cubs (5.19 runs per game) score more than the Yankees. The offense is plenty good.

The run prevention though, good gravy, it’s been terrible, especially lately. Only the very bad Colorado Rockies (6.93) and Washington Nationals (6.56) have allowed more runs per game than the Yankees since July 1. Not surprisingly, New York’s record when scoring at least five runs is worse than the league average.

You can compensate for poor run prevention by scoring more runs and Judge’s return will help the Yankees offensively. He will not help them keep runs off the board though. In fact, Judge’s return could make the team’s run prevention even worse if Stanton and his limited glove have to spend significant time in the outfield. 

Are the Yankees better with Judge? Yes, obviously. Does Judge’s return address their biggest need? Not, not even close. The Yankees are falling down the standings because they simply cannot stop the other from scoring often enough. Until that changes, they’ll have to outscore their own pitching and defense to win, and that’s a tough way to play.

Judge still leads the MVP race

Judge, 33, is hitting .342/.449/.711 with 37 home runs this season. He leads baseball in batting average by 18 points, on-base percentage by 29 points, slugging percentage by 111 points, OPS by 182 points, and OPS + by 44 points. Judge is five home runs and 2 RBI behind Cal Raleigh for the AL lead, putting a Triple Crown within reach (as long as he doesn’t miss any more time). Caesars has Judge back as the MVP favorite (-230), ahead of Raleigh (+150) and a distant Tarik Skubal (+4500).

Here is the FanGraphs WAR leaderboard (fWAR includes pitch-framing for catchers):

1. Aaron Judge, Yankees: 7.1 WAR
2. Cal Raleigh, Mariners: 6.4 WAR
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs: 5.7 WAR
4. Tarik Skubal, Tigers: 5.7 WAR
5. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: 5.2 WAR

WAR is not the be-all, end-all, but it does inform MVP voters, and Judge still has a pretty significant lead even after his 10-day stint on the injured list. He’s the best hitter in the league by a lot. Will he continue to be with a compromised right elbow? That remains to be seen, though all indications are the injury does not bother Judge when hitting. Only when throwing.

An extended absence would have taken a bite out of Judge’s MVP résumé. For now, he built such a strong case and has been so far ahead of the rest of the league offensively and in terms of total value that a 10-day hiatus won’t hurt his MVP chances much. And, if the Yankees get their act together and play well down the stretch, the “Judge returned and saved their season” narrative will spread.

Early August is still too early for MVP talk though. There is still a lot of season to be played and Judge’s and Raleigh’s teams are neck-and-neck in the wild card race. The final standings and their performances the rest of the way will play a major role in deciding the sport’s top individual season award.