Let it be stated that Juan Soto of the New York Mets is hardly struggling this season, his first since signing a record $765 million free-agent contract with the Queenslanders over the winter. After his first 16 games as a Met, he’s batting .250/.400/.429 with a pair of home runs and 12 unintentional walks versus eight strikeouts. That comes to a park-adjusted OPS that’s 42 percent superior to the league-average. No, that’s not peak Soto, but it’s still very good production by the decorated batsman who’s somehow still just 26 years of age.
All that said, it’s shy of what Soto and Mets expect, and, small sample size be damned, it’s led to questions. Speaking of which, the New York Post posed one to Soto about no longer hitting in front of Aaron Judge, his teammate with the crosstown New York Yankees last season and the reigning American League MVP. Soto replied:
“It’s definitely different. I had the best hitter in baseball hitting behind me. I was getting more attacked and more pitches in the strike zone, less intentional walks and things like that. I was pitched differently last year.”
For what it’s worth, not long after these remarks, Soto hit his second homer of the season as part of a 5-1 win for the first-place Mets over the Minnesota Twins:
As for the merits of Soto’s observation, there’s a “perception is truth” element to anything as mentally demanding as hitting a baseball thrown by the best pitchers in the world. If Soto believes he’s being pitched differently – and in a less accommodating manner – then on a certain level he is. As for what the numbers say, they back up what Soto says, albeit not to great extremes:
- He was pitched in the strike zone 46.5% of the time last season with the Yankees versus 43.2% of the time with the Mets this year.
- Soto last season saw fastballs 23.8% of the time last season versus 22.7% of the time this season.
Maybe getting at that mental perception aspect, though, is the fact that Soto this season has attacked pitches in the zone (53.3% of the time) less than he did last year in the Bronx (59% of the time). For his career, he’s swung at pitches in the zone 60% of the time, and that’s with this year’s decline baked into the numbers. Soto’s a famously patient hitter, but one can argue he’s crossed the border into passive, at least when it comes to in-zone pitches this season.
As well, it’s worth noting that Soto this season has again had a highly productive hitter batting behind him. Mets first baseman Pete Alonso in 2025 is slashing .345/.464/.673 with four homers from the No. 3 spot. That comes to an OPS+ of 227 and +1400 odds for National League MVP (per DraftKings). Last season, Judge had an OPS+ of 223 for the year. Obviously, Alonso is not on Judge’s level as a hitter, and he’ll likely experience some regression in the weeks to come. Pitchers of course know this. Still, Alonso has thus far provided lineup protection, to whatever extent it exists, for Soto. The power of perception, though, is doing the work.
Moving forward, you’re very likely to see Soto pick up his power pace and increase his overall outputs from “very good” to “vintage” levels. As he does so, his apparent pining for Judge’s hulking presence in the lineup will probably subside.
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