This won’t be apparent right away, but despite immense hype that leads to prospects being picked in Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft, we’ll eventually realize some prospects were picked much too early. This happens in every single draft class.
To warn you about who those prospects may very well be, I’m generating another “Buyer-Beware” prospect list.
While I’m not insinuating these prospects are guaranteed to bust, they’re just the most risky propositions who could still land somewhere in the first round or very early on Day 2. In my estimation, they’ll have a difficult time living up to their draft positions. These are my buyer-beware prospects in the 2024 class.
This will be the sixth edition of my “Buyer Beware” prospects. Previous installments were published before the draft in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2024. There’ve certainly been misses. Hits include Travon Walker, Kadarius Toney, Kenneth Murray, and potentially Keon Coleman. (In 2023, I would’ve included Myles Murphy, my No. 43 overall prospect, and Emmanuel Forbes, who came in at No. 57 in my final Big Board that year.)
Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
Why: Tackling problems, misguided thoughts on his ball skills, short arms
For as much as Barron has received the slot cornerback distinction in this pre-draft process — which absolutely is a valuable, starting position in today’s NFL, he did experience his final-season breakout playing on the boundary on exactly 70% of Texas’ defensive snaps. He doesn’t have outside cornerback length. His arm length is in the 4th percentile at the cornerback spot, regardless of pre-snap positioning. That’s worrisome.
In terms of on-field play, I didn’t view Barron as a strong, reliable tackler on film. In his long career in Austin, his tackle efficiency rate of 7.16% was very low. A strong number there is close to (or exceeding) 10%. And the difference between 7% and 10% is sizable.
Then there’s the turnover-creation ability in coverage. I hate to do this, because not all splash plays are created equal, and everyone gets a gift-wrapped interception at times, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to provide context on Barron’s five interceptions in 2024. The first, against Colorado State, was a fine play. Barron sunk in his deep third, slightly peeled off to the hashmark to undercut a deep ball for the pick.
The two in the regular-season loss to Georgia came on a tipped pass underneath, and when he collided with an outside Bulldogs receiver but the pass was thrown anyway. The receiver never saw the football whatsoever. His next, against Arkansas, was another tipped pass. The final interception was essentially a fair catch for Barron, when a hurried Georgia quarterback attempted to throw the ball away and there was no receiver within 10 yards of the football when it landed in Barron’s arms.
So, again, not every interception is of spectacular athletic or mental-processing fashion. Yet, I can’t give Barron a “ball-hawk” label after witnessing those on film.
I think Barron is a fine prospect. I don’t think he’s worthy of a draft stock that’s swelled to the likely second cornerback off the board behind Travis Hunter.
Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
Why: Limited YAC and contested-catch talent
There are some unknowns with Loveland, because he got injured in his final season at Michigan, and he just turned 21 years old. Those elements lead to this selection coming with less confidence than the other picks.
On film, there’s no doubting Loveland’s explosiveness and sustained speed when he’s scorching down the seam. He’s a loose, dynamic athlete, almost moving like a large receiver. That’s what teams are after in today’s NFL, and justifiably so. Loveland is a reasonably rare tight end who can separate on athleticism alone once he reaches the professional level.
The rest of his profile felt lackluster to me. I didn’t see him routinely breaking tackles or making defenders miss in space. And the numbers back that claim. His career missed tackle forced rate at Michigan was 6.8%. That’s incredibly low, particularly for a prospect cemented in the first round. For perspective, Brock Bowers’ was 25.1%. Sam LaPorta’s was 23.5%. Mark Andrews’ was 17.8% Pat Freiermuth’s was 14.1%. Not that MTF rate is the ultimate predictor of NFL success at tight end, but the only successful early-round tight end in recent memory in that range was Trey McBride at 9%, but he caught nearly 50 more passes in college than Loveland.
Then there’s the rebounding effectiveness. On film, I didn’t notice him boxing out downfield or routinely winning in heavy traffic. He secured only 10 of his 25 contested-catch opportunities (40%) in college. Most premier tight end prospects are north of 50% in that advanced statistic.
There’s upside with Loveland, no doubt. I just don’t believe he should be considered as sure of a thing as he’s presumed to be in this draft class.
Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M
Why: Lacking pass-rush moves, speed-to-power inconsistency
I’m such a firm believer in athleticism as a reasonably strong predictor of NFL success. And Stewart has that in spades. It’s not super common that a prospect has a perfect 10 out of 10 Relative Athletic Score. Stewart earned that after a ridiculous combine workout at 6-foot-5 and 267 pounds with arms over 34 inches. Yes, he has the built-in-a-lab frame and measured athleticism.
It all appears on film too — he’s a ridiculously smooth and at times explosive mover at defensive end.
But there’s a certain threshold of football skill that’s needed for a workout warrior to thrive in the NFL. I don’t think Stewart possesses that yet. With his God-given ability, he should be radically more productive. But his pass-rush move arsenal is lacking, and the moments in which he summons all his natural talent to convert it to functional play on the field are few and far between.
His career 11.6% pressure rate is very low for a perceived to be first-round prospect. That figure should be closer to 15% (or higher). Now, his run-defense clearly improved in 2024. That’s a good sign. And he’s only 21 years old. But it feels like Stewart, who looks noticeably raw on film, will go somewhere inside the Top 15. That comes with massive early-career expectations, and he’s more of a long-term project than someone who can hit the ground running in the NFL.
Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia
Why: High pad-level as rusher, limited explosiveness, average pass-rush move arsenal
A lot of what is outlined above with Stewart applies to Williams. They’re both built in a defensive coordinator’s dreams. The difference between the two, Stewart is more explosive off the ball, and Williams has more refined hand work. Now, Williams isn’t routinely beating blocks with his hands but did demonstrate an awareness of the importance of utilizing finesse moves at the point of attack on occasion.
He tends to get high when rushing the quarterback, which saps what can be immense bull-rushing power. Then there’s the first step. At his size, it’s good but not dynamic enough to threaten the outside shoulder of offensive tackles in the NFL. Every professional offensive tackle is a freak athlete at over 300 pounds.
From a data perspective, Williams really peaked as a freshman. Production in Year 1 in the SEC is undoubtedly encouraging. The fact he wasn’t able to parlay that into more efficiency later in his Georgia career is concerning.
And that freshman-year was encouraging, not elite. His pressure rates went 11.8% to 11% to 10.4%. The run-stopping prowess is there. Williams has a wingspan in the 86th percentile at the edge position. I just would want much more of a pass-rushing profile to pick him in the first round.
Why: Tackling issues, speed concerns, over-aggression in coverage
Another clearly talented yet enigmatic Michigan prospect in this class. Johnson was the No. 4 cornerback recruit in the country in the 2022 class (behind Travis Hunter and two other corners still in college) per 247 Sports. And he showed out instantly at Michigan with three picks and three pass breakups as a true freshman that fall.
Altogether, he snagged nine interceptions across 32 games for the Wolverines, but his final season was cut short due to injury after a mere six games. On film, Johnson is bouncy for a longer corner, always looking to jump routes to make the big play. And, as the numbers show, he was a big-play creator at Michigan. He also allowed a fair amount of plays over the top because of his aggression. NFL offensive coordinators will take note of that.
As a tackler, I don’t know what happened in 2024, whether his ultimately season-ending injury was already bothering him or he was making NFL-related business decisions, but Johnson was a dreadful tackler in his final season in Ann Arbor. He missed five tackles while only making 19 combined tackles. And it was a weak-point of his game in his first two years in college.
We won’t ever know his measured speed, because he didn’t run a 40-yard dash at his individual pre-draft workout in early April, but I have questions about his ability to stick with NFL burners on the outside. The 22-year-old does have give off some stylistic coverage vibes to that of Patrick Surtain. But the reigning Defensive Player of the Year was bigger, longer, and ran 4.42 at the Alabama Pro Day during his pre-draft process.
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