When Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard made headlines during the NFL Scouting Combine by saying the team would have an “open competition” at quarterback this season, he raised the question, “Which signal-caller would the Colts acquire to compete against Anthony Richardson?”
The answer to that question became official on Wednesday when the team announced the signing of free agent Daniel Jones. Selected No. 6 overall by the Giants in the 2019 NFL Draft, Jones completed 64.1% of his passes for 14,582 yards and 70 touchdowns with 47 interceptions over six seasons with New York. He went 24-44-1 as a starter but led the Giants to a playoff berth and a Wild Card win over the Vikings in the 2022 season.
After agreeing to a one-year, $14 million deal with Indianapolis, Jones will try to unseat Richardson as the starter. Like Jones, Richardson was selected early in the draft (No. 4 overall in 2023). And like Jones, Richardson has struggled to fulfill lofty expectations. In 15 starts over the last two seasons, he has completed just 50.6% of his passes and has more interceptions (13) than passing touchdowns (11). However, he has added 10 rushing touchdowns.
“I think [a quarterback competition] is good for the team; I think it’s good for Anthony,” Ballard said at the combine. “We drafted Anthony high knowing it was going to take some time, and we knew there were going to be some hiccups along the way. I know we want a finished product right now. I do. You do. Fans do. We all do. But I think as he continues to progress in his young career, us adding competition I think will help up everybody’s game.”
But, according to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Jones-Richardson battle shouldn’t be a battle at all. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says the Colts are better off with Jones, not Richardson, behind center.
With Jones, Indianapolis wins 7.9 games (versus 6.5 with Richardson), wins the AFC South 26.9% of the time (versus 11.1%) and has a 35.9% chance to make the playoffs (versus 15.1%).
Why the difference? According to Stephen Oh, SportsLine’s principal data engineer and the man behind the model, says this simply is a matter of passing accuracy, or rather, inaccuracy. Last season, Richardson had the lowest completion rate (47.7%) of any starting quarterback in the NFL.
“Virtually every quarterback would be an upgrade over Richardson because he is a sub-50% passer,” Oh says. “Richardson is amazing at completing maybe 33% of balls that should be completed 15% of the time. But he’s terrible because passes that should be completed 75% of the time are completed at 50%.”
Richardson has been working this offseason with renowned pitching coach Tom House to improve his throwing mechanics.
“He is really competitive,” Ballard says. “I think for a six-game stretch there [last season], we saw some really special stuff out of him. Now we just got to get consistent.”
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