Super Bowl winners are not determined in March. Or April. Or any other time we declared offseason “winners,” whether it’s in free agency or the draft. One year ago, there were very reasonable doubts the Seahawks had taken a step back by trading away Geno Smith and bringing in Sam Darnold. Plus, Mike Macdonald had brought in a new offensive coordinator, and though Jaxon Smith-Njigba had emerged, the offense seemed to be lacking that little extra *something* across the board. The defense looked strong, but could it really be carry-a-team strong? Entering the season, Seattle was +6000 to win the Super Bowl, longer odds than the Cardinals.
Often, offseason “winners” are losers on the field. Big contracts are big risks that don’t pay off. Plus, even the teams that do get bang for their buck are still far away from contending in the first place, hence why they had so much money to begin with. Still, a little projecting forward never hurt anybody, right? That’s part of the fun.
With that in mind, I’m here to plant my flag. Write it down, here on March 11, 2026, with the NFL league year officially starting and Super Bowl 60 still just weeks old: The Los Angeles Rams are not only offseason winners, but they should be the clear favorite to be Super Bowl winners as well.
I understand all the risks that come with it. I understand it is March. I understand placing my trust in Matthew Stafford’s back is like building a mansion teetering on a cliff. I get it. Still, I am enamored — perhaps too enamored for my own good — for what the Rams could look like.
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Let’s start with why the Rams have been winners so far, and it goes back to before any player moves. First, Sean McVay was able to keep defensive coordinator Chris Shula and passing game coordinator Nate Scheelhaase, who got elevated to offensive coordinator with Mike LaFleur’s departure to become Arizona’s coach. Both Shula and Scheelhaase generated significant interest this coaching cycle. Neither left. Coach retention is one of the more underrated pieces of team building, especially when said team is already very good. The Seahawks lost their offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, this offseason. The Chargers and Packers both lost their defensive coordinators to head coaching gigs. Same with the 49ers. It’s hard to nail any hire. It’s even harder to replace one good hire with another.
So the Rams took a big step there. Then they took an even bigger one on the player acquisition front. On March 4, the Rams sent a first-round pick — and several other selections — to the Chiefs for cornerback Trent McDuffie, who they then gave a four-year, $124 million extension. Lest you think Los Angeles was done addressing its secondary, it brought back reliable safety Kamren Curl on a three-year deal and then signed cornerback Jaylen Watson to a three-year, $51 million contract. Before the league calendar had even officially flipped, the Rams had not only addressed the most glaring hole on its roster, but made it a strength.
The Rams had mostly made do with an underwhelming cornerback group the past few years. As the Rams had restocked their defensive front with top picks, the secondary had been mostly been a group cobbled together by castoffs, journeyman veterans and middle-round picks. It showed. Pro Football Focus is not the be-all, end-all for anything, but perhaps I can show you how glaring the cornerback spot was by using it.
One of those things is not like the others. And in several cases — Davante Adams at wide receiver, Steve Avila and Warren McClendon Jr. on the offensive line, Jared Verse at EDGE and Curl at safety — there was a second highly ranked player. At cornerback after McCreary, there was Cobie Durant (43rd), Darious Williams (45th) and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. (91st).
Now, enter McDuffie, who was 12th, and Watson, who was 17th. Cornerback stats can be notoriously finicky, but in man coverage, Watson allowed a 43.4 passer rating as the primary defender. McDuffie was at 54.7. None of McCreary, Durant, Forbes or Williams were below 79.
When the Rams lost, they lost because they couldn’t contain opposing wide receivers.
- Week 3 — A.J. Brown: 6 rec, 109 yds, 1 TD
- Week 5 — Kendrick Bourne: 10 rec, 142 yds
- Week 13 — 43-yd rec TD by Tetairoa McMillan, 33-yd rec TD by Jalen Coker
- Week 16 — Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 8 rec, 96 yds, 1 TD (all in second half)
- NFC Championship – Smith-Njigba: 10 rec, 153 yds, 1 TD
The Panthers loss was especially illustrative, because outside a few chunk plays, the Rams dominated.
Watson brings length, McDuffie toughness and versatility. Both are Super Bowl champions who can guard opponents’ best wide receivers. Last year, the Rams didn’t even have one player who could do that reliably. Now they have two. Both play the run at a high level, too.
These additions are massive for Shula, a creative defensive mind whose creativity was limited by his personnel. The Rams played man just 15% of the time, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Shula will be able to dive into his bag of tricks more confidently with McDuffie and Watson in tow, divvying up coverages and looks at a rate he simply couldn’t do last year.
It’s totally understandable if the argument of “two cornerback additions makes this team the top Super Bowl contender” doesn’t move you. But it’s more than that.
The Rams were one of the best teams teams of this millennium according to total DVOA. They were first in scoring offense and seventh in scoring defense in 2025. They bring everyone back in positions of strength, and they made their biggest weakness yet another strength. The Rams aren’t going to be perfect. Stafford will have a dud here or there. The defensive front is good, but it doesn’t have a true ace (though Verse could get there).
Let’s not forget the Rams still have the 13th overall pick in next month’s draft thanks to their trade with the Atlanta Falcons last year. The Rams could use that pick on another pass rusher — this class is loaded with them — a dynamic safety, a powerful offensive lineman or simply the best player available in their estimation. After all, this roster is tremendous already.
They’ve gotten there using a variety of strategies, and McVay and GM Les Snead deserve major credit for that. In 2021, they were all in on a veteran-laden team that won it all. Then they had to restructure and re-strategize. Snead couldn’t “F Them Picks” his way to more success. He has instead nailed them picks, with Williams in 2022, Nacua, Avila, Young, McClendon and Kobie Turner in 2023, Verse, Kinchens and Braden Fiske in 2024. He has added veterans where appropriate along the way.
Stafford can’t play forever. If this is a last hurrah for him, the Rams are rightfully all-in. They’ve gotten there with a mix of smarts, aggression and opportunity. That mix — combined with the losses of other top contenders — should have them a step ahead of all other teams when picking a team to win it all.
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