How can Team USA advance at World Baseball Classic? WBC tiebreaker scenarios explained

Team USA, all of a sudden, is in trouble at the 2026 World Baseball Classic. Team USA was shockingly upset by Italy, 8-6, on Tuesday night. The result takes the Americans’ knockout stage fate out of their own hands. Whether they make it to the quarterfinals will all depend on what happens when the unbeaten Italians face Mexico on Wednesday night. The worst-case scenario for Team USA would see the star-studded group eliminated after four group-play games.

Here’s where Team USA stands:

• The team has wrapped up play in Group B with a 3-1 record. The Americans beat Brazil and Great Britain easily over the weekend, notched a 5-3 win over Mexico on Monday night and then suffered the perplexing blowout loss to Italy on Tuesday.
• Team USA does not take the field again in pool play. Mexico and Italy face off on Wednesday night in the final Pool B game (7 p.m. ET, Tubi).
• The first- and second-place teams from Pool B will advance to the eight-team knockout stage. The Americans can still finish anywhere from first to third in the group. 

Team USA features a power-packed lineup with the likes of Bobby Witt Jr., Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Cal Raleigh. The rotation features both of the reigning Cy Young winners in Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes. This team was favored to win the entire World Baseball Classic entering the tournament and were heavy favorites to win Pool B. It could all be undone by one tough night against some espresso-hot Italian sluggers.

So now, suddenly, Team USA needs help just to make it through to the quarterfinals. There are two ways the United States can move on. One is simple. One is complicated. Let’s run them both.

How can Team USA advance in World Baseball Classic?

• Team USA moves on if Italy beats Mexico. That’s the simple option. If Italy completes its undefeated run through pool play, the Italians will be 4-0 and win the group. Team USA will be 3-1 and in second place ahead of 2-2 Mexico.
• If Mexico beats Italy on Wednesday, there would be a three-way tie atop Pool B. Team USA can advance if it wins a tiebreaker. Team USA, Mexico and Italy would all finish 3-1 overall and 1-1 against each other. This is where the complicated World Baseball Classic tiebreaker rules come into play.

Explaining World Baseball Classic tiebreakers

A two-team tiebreaker is simple. If two teams finish 2-2 in a pool, the team who won the head-to-head matchup finishes higher in the standings. A three-team tiebreaker? Simple, it is not.  Here are the tiebreaker rules for a three-team tie:

1. Lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied.
2. Lowest quotient of fewest earned runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied.
3. Highest batting average in games in that round between the teams tied.
4. A drawing of lots.

Even though Team USA lost on Tuesday, scoring some late runs against Italy could be very important. Here’s where the quotients rule stands through Tuesday’s action.

Remember, the lower the quotient, the better. Mexico only has 24 outs recorded through one game because Team USA did not have to bat in the ninth inning on Monday. 

Giving up eight runs to Italy might be what ultimately costs the U.S., but two late home runs from Pete Crow-Armstrong actually pushed Italy’s quotient to the worst among the three teams through Tuesday’s games.

Essentially, Team USA and its fans should root for Italy on Wednesday — and a lot of runs. An 8-7 Mexico win in nine innings, for example, would push Team USA back to first place in Pool B. A 4-2 Mexico win, on the other hand, would see Team USA get eliminated.