Trotter’s Trends: Cardiac Kemba, reincarnated; limping into Selection Sunday

Impossibly, the Kemba Walker moment transpired 15 years ago today. Perhaps as an ode to Cardiac Kemba, college basketball has blessed us with one of the best collections of guards in recent memory. 

Who could follow in his footsteps and give us a magical March heater? Here are the top candidates:

Darius Acuff Jr., Arkansas: The newly anointed SEC Player of the Year is having one of the best pure shooting seasons in recent memory. Acuff is shooting a mind-boggling 62% on unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s. Open jumpers are automatic for Acuff these days, and he’s shown time and time again that he is capable of taking games over. If anyone can recreate Walker’s magic, it’s Acuff.

Kingston Flemings, Houston: Flemings makes tough shots look remarkably easy, and he creates space with ease thanks to his dynamic, explosive first step. 

Labaron Philon, Alabama: Philon has been one of the most dynamic late-clock assassins in college basketball. In the final four seconds of the shot clock, Philon is shooting an insane 48% from the field. He is unafraid to take the game into his own hands in clutch time.

Christian Anderson, Texas Tech: No player has created more points this year than Anderson. He is a marksman from well beyond the 3-point stripe, and the moment never seems too big.

Keaton Wagler, Illinois: Wagler’s hesitation, crossover, stepback triple is one of the most unguardable shots in college basketball. Wagler is shooting over 40% on catch-and-shoot 3s and pull-up 3s. That type of efficiency with this much volume is unheard of.

Darryn Peterson, Kansas: Peterson has been one of the top off-movement snipers this year, but Bill Self has started to give Peterson a few more on-ball reps. He’s entirely capable of shredding anybody and everybody he’s lined up against.

Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt: Tanner is so nice. The wiggle, change of pace and real-deal athleticism make Tanner a complete headache to defend.

Limping into Selection Sunday?

Since February 1, every team in college basketball has played at least nine games. The full-season picture provides the most useful context, but this last five-week snapshot has raised some concerns for some teams that have had really good seasons but are showing some warts at the wrong time.

Purdue (projected No. 3 seed): It’s just target practice for Purdue’s opponents right now. The Boilermakers’ lack of speed and athleticism has been exacerbated by poor decision-making defensively and lots of scouting-report miscues. Purdue’s defense rates 73rd nationally in the last 10 games. Opponents have a 56.6 effective field goal percentage against the Boilermakers during that span. Purdue’s best defense is an offense that forces you to take it out of the net and the fact that the Boilermakers’ are still a good rebounding team. But other than that…

Vanderbilt (projected No. 4 seed): This defense ranks 100th nationally in the last nine games. The ‘Dores are getting eviscerated on the glass, fouling way too much and giving up a ton of 3s. That’s a bad combination. Tyler Tanner is fabulous and getting Duke Miles back into the fold is super helpful, but Vanderbilt’s personnel was always a bit limited on the defensive end and that’s showed up down the home stretch. 

Nebraska (projected No. 3 seed): The Huskers’ offense is MIA right now. Nebraska rates 129th in offensive efficiency in the last 10 games, despite shooting an above-average 35% from downtown. Nebraska doesn’t offensive rebound much and doesn’t get to the foul line often, so the margin of error is slim. The Huskers need big man Rienk Mast to rediscover his mojo. He’s 4-for-1 from beyond the arc in the last seven games.

Kansas (projected No. 5 seed): The Jayhawks’ offense rates 104th nationally in the last 10 games. The good news is that Darryn Peterson says this is the healthiest he’s felt all year. He played like it against Kansas State, but this isn’t a great passing team and the Jayhawks don’t have a ton of shooting. This half-court offense gets stuck in the mud far too often.

N.C. State (projected No. 9 seed): Will Wade is a good defensive coach — there are years of data to support this — but he has not been able to get this group to lock in on that end. NC State is 3-6 in its last nine games, with a defense that ranks 179th nationally during that timeframe. NC State doesn’t rebound, doesn’t defend the rim, gives up too many clean 3s and doesn’t force many turnovers. When it rains, it pours.

BYU (projected No. 6 seed): The Cougars rank 212th in defense in the last 10 games. Do you need to see anything else? 

The rim-defense script

UConn and Florida have used a horde of big dudes to construct excellent rim defenses to go on serious runs to eventual National Titles. It’s a copycat sport, so finding ways to build excellent rim defenses has been a major emphasis for new and old coaches alike to keep up with the arms race.

There are only 10 high-major teams that are allowing 22 or fewer points at the rim per game this year. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the 2025-26 National Champion comes from this group.

1. Duke: Jon Scheyer’s group just always feels like it is in the right place at the right time. Well-schooled unit.
2. Michigan State: Spartans’ big man Carson Cooper is one of the best defensive big men who gets very little recognition. 
3. Gonzaga: The Zags may have the best collection of defensive wings in the country. Tyon Grant-Foster, Jalen Warley and Emmanuel Innocenti are all excellent at filling up space and limiting paint touches.
4. Nebraska: The Huskers’ no-middle defense is tremendously impactful and disruptive. Sam Hoiberg and Berke Buyuktuncel are problem-solvers, but the buy-in up and down the roster is fantastic.
5. Arizona: Tommy Lloyd has built an excellent defensive team. Motiejus Krivas is one of the elite drop-coverage bigs in the country. Ivan Kharchenkov is a brickhouse wing defender. Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries are stout at the point of attack. Tobe Awaka and Koa Peat are huge bodies.
6. Michigan: There are no weak links to pick at in this Michigan defense. Aday Mara is one of the premier shot-blockers in the sport, but do-it-all defenders like Morez Johnson and Yaxel Lendeborg are invaluable at controlling the paint. 
7. Tennessee: Felix Okpara is playing some of his best basketball at just the right time, and Tennessee has waves of front-line depth. 
8. Cincinnati: Moustapha Thiam and Baba Miller form an enormous front-line duo.
9. Clemson: Brad Brownell teaches defensive principles as well as anybody. Clemson’s entire defensive gameplan is built around shutting off access to the paint.
10. Houston: The Cougars’ hyper-aggressive defense just pushes offenses farther and farther away from the rim. When they get there, JoJo Tugler can send it into the fifth row.

Conversely, here are some notable NCAA Tournament teams with iffy rim defenses:

• Texas Tech: When big man Luke Bamgboye is on the floor, Texas Tech’s rim defense has been awesome, holding opponents to just 51% shooting. But Bamgboye fouls a ton and has played more than 22 minutes just twice all year. When the VCU transfer sits, Texas Tech’s rim defense is a sieve (64% shooting).
• Ohio State: The Buckeyes’ effort on the defensive end is top-notch more often than not, but the personnel is a bit limiting. This is the third-worst shot-blocking team in the Big Ten. 
• UCLA: The Bruins have pivoted to playing small-ball with Eric Dailey Jr. at the 4 and Tyler Bilodeau at the 5 to try and outscore everybody. It’s a good strategy because this interior defense feels unfixable. Opponents are shooting over 61% at the rim against UCLA regardless if center Xavier Booker is on the floor.