The NFL’s two-day negotiating period set the stage for a plethora of eye-catching moves in free agency, which will become official Wednesday upon the start of the new league year. As is the case with most offseason activity, these agreed-upon signings and trades are ripe for overreaction.
Teams that came to terms on massive contracts — like the Colts with wide receiver Alec Pierce — ought to believe that their money is well-spent. Those which made moves on the quarterback market — including the Falcons swooping in to pick up Tua Tagovailoa — should feel as though they are set for success on offense.
Not all free agent signings and offseason trades will produce the desired results, though, with a number of players always destined to underperform their contracts. But it goes both ways, as there will always be pleasant surprises.
Below, we set out to determine which are overreactions and which are reality.
The Colts overpaid for Alec Pierce
Overreaction vs. reality: Reality
Keeping Alec Pierce in town was a priority. The contract he landed is evidence. His four-year, $116 million deal makes him the highest-paid free agent receiver in NFL history, and his average salary makes him ninth-richest receiver in the league for 2026. The contract also comes with $80 million guarantees, including $60 million upon signing.
That is a major commitment to a player that narrowly avoided the franchise tag. It is also a ton of money for a player who is, more than anything, a deep-ball threat. Pierce led the NFL in yards per catch each of the last two years and crossed the 1,000 yard-mark last season on just 47 receptions. However, while he can take the top off defenses with the best of them, it is a stretch to say Pierce fits the billing of a top-10 receiver in the league.
There will be more opportunities in the short and medium ranges after the Colts traded Michael Pittman Jr. to the Steelers, but tasking Pierce with filling that role would take away from what he does best in the vertical game. Unless Indianapolis foresees getting Pierce involved in new parts of the field, it paid a premium for someone who is primarily a downfield target and cost itself a No. 1 receiver in the process.
Tua Tagovailoa’s move is a win-win for the Dolphins and Falcons
Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction
The Dolphins eat a record $99 million in dead cap money over the next two years after releasing Tua Tagovailoa, so in order to make that expensive parting of ways worth the high cost, they needed to secure a certified upgrade. That was always going to be difficult with this being a not-so-compelling free agency class at the quarterback position, and spending $22.5 million per year on a still-unproven Malik Willis is a risk.
The Dolphins-Tagovailoa marriage was untenable, but it is hard to say with confidence that Miami is in any better of a position now than it was with the lefty on its roster. Its financial flexibility is nonexistent, and its quarterback play could end up being worse if the bet on Willis fails.
Miami’s financial burden is Atlanta’s gain, as the Falcons only have to pay Tagovailoa $1.3 million to come in and compete with Michael Penix Jr. At face value, that is an affordable flier to take on a quarterback who could rekindle his career with a fresh start. But what does Tagovailoa really bring to this franchise? If anything, his arrival only makes the future murkier and leaves Penix (a recent first-round pick, mind you) in limbo as the face of the Falcons.
This is shaping up to be another year without clear direction for the Falcons at the most important position on the field.
Kenneth Walker III will take the Chiefs back to the playoffs
Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction
The lack of an explosive run game was among the myriad reasons the Chiefs took a step backward and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Bringing Kenneth Walker III in on a three-year, $45 million contract should fix that problem. The reigning Super Bowl MVP has a knack for getting into the second level and will be an excellent weapon to balance out Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the offense.
Kansas City’s ground attack will be better in 2026, but that may not be enough to ensure another 6-11 disaster is not around the corner.
The Chiefs just lost two cornerbacks in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and their cap situation hardly allows them to plug star replacements into the pass defense. And fair questions still exist about the passing offense, which still lacks an alpha in the receiving unit, and will see how much juice it can squeeze out of a 36-year-old Travis Kelce.
Jerry Jones whiffed with his free agency plan
Overreaction vs. reality: Reality
Jerry Jones said the Cowboys would “spend more money in free agency” than in years past. Sure, there is still time for them to do so, but their biggest outside signing thus far is safety Jalen Thompson on a three-year, $33 million deal. That had better just be the start of Dallas’ spending, because the defense needs a whole lot more attention.
The trade for Rashan Gary is also a bit of a head-scratcher. At $39 million over two years, it looks like an overpay for a player whom the Packers seemed destined to release. And while the move brings some desperately needed help on the edge, it should not be forgotten that the only reason Jones needed to add talent to that spot is that he traded away a superstar less than a year ago. This is another aftershock of the Micah Parsons trade and one that continues to make the Cowboys look like the losers of that deal.
The NFC West got even better
Overreaction vs. reality: Reality
The best division in football is not slowing down. Save for the Cardinals, who parted ways with Kyler Murray and look poised to compete for next year’s No. 1 pick, everyone in the NFC West has a chance to be as good or better than they were in 2025 in the wake of free agency’s first wave.
Things have been mostly quiet for the Seahawks, but that may be for the best as they look to reload for another Super Bowl run. The teams directly behind them in the division made moves that will help them compete for deep postseason runs of their own.
The Rams’ acquisitions of McDuffie and Watson filled two huge needs at cornerback and set them up to compete for a Super Bowl before Matthew Stafford calls it a career. The 49ers picking up Mike Evans — and doing so at a relatively modest $20 million per year price — sets Brock Purdy up with about as reliable a No. 1 target as there is.
All three of Seattle, Los Angeles and San Francisco should go into the season expecting to make the playoffs again.
The Jets fixed their defense
Overreaction vs. reality: Overreaction
No team acquired more new defensive players than the Jets, who signed five outside free agents and traded for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. The emphasis on retooling the defense is necessary after the Jets became the first team in NFL history to go an entire season without recording an interception and allowed the second-most points per game in the league. There will be fresh faces all over the board when Aaron Glenn takes over the play-calling duties in 2026.
It is possible that the whole will be greater than the sum of its parts, but the additions do not immediately seem to raise the group’s ceiling by a sizable margin. Edge rushers Joseph Ossai and Kingsley Enagbare are nice additions but by no means game-changers. Fitzpatrick and Demario Davis bring veteran leadership and reliable production to a unit that needs a culture overhaul, but in both cases, their best years may be behind them.
The floor is higher on the Jets’ defense. There is no question about that. Last year’s group was so bad, though, that even a handful of solid moves may not be enough to pull New York out of the gutter. Aaron Glenn’s job might hinge on this unit making huge strides, so more moves could still be on the horizon as he seeks to fix all that went wrong in Year 1.
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