The case can be made three of the four best teams in the National League reside in the NL East. That has been true for a good three or four years now, though it hasn’t always played out that way on the field. Preseason projections put three NL East teams in the playoffs last year. Only one played in October. There was disappointment throughout the division.
With Opening Day a little more than two weeks away, here now is our NL East season preview, with everything you need to know about the five teams.
Odds via Caesars
Projected starting lineup
- SS Francisco Lindor, SHB
- LF Juan Soto, LHB
- 3B Bo Bichette, RHB
- 1B Jorge Polanco, SHB
- CF Luis Robert Jr., RHB
- 2B Marcus Semien, RHB
- DH Brett Baty, LHB
- C Francisco Alvarez, RHB
- RF Carson Benge, LHB
Manager Carlos Mendoza indicated the Mets plan to give Polanco plenty of time at DH as a health-management plan, which will free up first base at-bats for Baty and Mark Vientos. Expect Baty to be in the lineup against every righty and Vientos to be in the lineup against every lefty. Benge is New York’s top position player prospect and considered the favorite to win the right field job this spring. It is not a given though. Mike Tauchman is in camp on a minor-league deal and could wrestle the job away from Benge. Infielder Ronny Mauricio and catcher Luis Torrens will be on the bench. Mauricio figures to man short should the start of Lindor’s season be delayed by hamate surgery.
Projected rotation
- RHP Freddy Peralta
- RHP Clay Holmes
- LHP David Peterson
- RHP Kodai Senga
- RHP Nolan McLean
- LHP Sean Manaea
Pitching was New York’s downfall late last season, so, over the winter, they imported Peralta, one of the game’s top starters and most reliable “take the ball every fifth day” guys. The Mets will also have McLean for the full year. He dazzled in his eight-start cameo last season. Tobias Myers and prospects Christian Scott and Jonah Tong are the first wave of depth. The Mets have the pieces to run a six-man rotation and are expected to do so much of 2026.
Notable relievers
Edwin Díaz left as a free agent to sign with the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers — Mets owner Steve Cohen called Díaz’s decision “perplexing,” which seems like a stretch given L.A.’s success — and the Mets replaced him by spreading the money to Weaver and Williams, both most recently of the crosstown rival New York Yankees. Raley was dynamite in his return from Tommy John surgery last year and will get all those tough NL East left-on-left matchups (Drake Baldwin, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber, James Wood, etc.).
Biggest question: Will all the turnover equal more wins?
Look, we will never truly know how much discord there was in the clubhouse last season, or whether it was something that had to be addressed or a narrative POBO David Stearns used as pretext to rebuild the roster in his image. What we know for certain is it is now a much different clubhouse. The Mets were the offseason’s most active team in terms of the sheer number of transactions.
Frankly, the turnover was needed. The core in place had demonstrated over and over again it was not good enough to be a top-tier team, and last year’s collapse brought into question that core’s ability to simply reach the postseason. The clunky roster gave away too many outs and runs on defense, and too many centerpiece players were getting into their 30s. Change was needed.
“I certainly understand that there have been points of this offseason that are frustrating for our fanbase,” Stearns told MLB.com in January. “I hear it. I recognize it. I hear it from my friends and family at times. I’m also very convicted that what we are doing is the right thing for our franchise going forward, to accomplish our goals of creating a consistent playoff team, a team that year after year is a true World Series contender, and ultimately a team that does what we are all here to do, which is to win a World Series. That’s why we are doing all of this.”
Semien and Robert will bring excellent defense at key up-the-middle positions. There’s a chance Bichette and Polanco are actually defensive downgrades on the infield corners — Bichette has never played third before and Polanco has barely played first — though they will lengthen the lineup and provide power without high strikeout rates. The contact/power blend will be refreshing.
Add in Benge in the outfield, either right away on Opening Day or later in the season, and the Mets project to field a much more athletic and well-rounded roster this season. Peralta plus 28 starts of McLean rather than eight are reasons to believe the pitching, which was a disaster down the stretch a year ago, will be improved. If nothing else, the bullpen is deeper on paper.
It all makes sense even if seeing so many beloved homegrown players depart hurts. You can see the vision though, and fans will forgive as long as, you know, the Mets win. The Mets don’t really have history on their side — this franchise has had too many active winters lead to disappointment — but winning cures all. It will be a very different Mets team in 2026 and the hope is better results follow.
Projected starting lineup
- SS Trea Turner, RHB
- 1B Bryce Harper, LHB
- DH Kyle Schwarber, LHB
- 3B Alec Bohm, RHB
- LF Brandon Marsh, LHB
- RF Adolis García, RHB
- 2B Bryson Stott, LHB
- C J.T. Realmuto, RHB
- CF Justin Crawford, LHB
The Phillies set out to reshape their offense over the winter and it didn’t really happen. Realmuto and Schwarber were re-signed (as expected) and Nick Castellanos was replaced by García, who is essentially Castellanos with better defense. Other than that, the only real change is Crawford, a speed demon who hit .334/.411/.452 in a full season at Triple-A year ago. Otto Kemp and Edmundo Sosa will platoon with Marsh and Stott, respectively. Dylan Moore is in camp as a non-roster player and could beat out Kemp for a bench spot.
Projected rotation
- LHP Cristopher Sánchez
- LHP Jesús Luzardo
- RHP Aaron Nola
- RHP Taijuan Walker
- RHP Andrew Painter
Erstwhile ace Zack Wheeler is on the mend following thoracic outlet surgery and is in the middle of his throwing program. The hope is he’ll return sometime in April or early May. Walker will fill the rotation spot for the time being. Painter, Philadelphia’s top pitching prospect, is all but assured a rotation spot despite an uneven minor league season a year ago. It was his first year back from what amounted to two lost years to elbow injuries. There’s not much depth beyond that fivesome and Wheeler. Righty Alan Rangel and journeymen Tucker Davidson and Bryse Wilson are next in line if a starter is needed.
Notable relievers
Duran is on the very short list of the game’s most dominant relievers. It’s strikeouts, it’s ground balls, it’s velocity. Keller was great with the Cubs last year, his first season as a full-time reliever. Kerkering’s Game 4 error cost the Phillies the NLDS against the Dodgers, though one bad moment shouldn’t define a player. He’s a very good reliever fit for high-leverage work. Led by Duran, the Phillies have maybe their best bullpen of the entire Harper era.
Biggest question: How much impact will the prospects provide?
As good as they were last season, the Phillies were an old team. Their average position player age (weighed by playing time) was 30.3 years, second highest in baseball, and their pitchers were sixth oldest at 30.0 years. Age is not everything — the World Series champion Dodgers had the oldest position players at 30.7 years — though it does create downside risk.
Philadelphia recognized that age-related risk and is poised to incorporate several prospects into its roster this year, most notably Crawford and Painter. Barring disaster, Crawford will be the Opening Day center fielder and get a long runway. Painter is penciled into a rotation spot at least until Wheeler returns, which figures to be a few weeks into the season.
“You’re always looking to get better, so we will be open-minded to that,” POBO Dave Dombrowski told MLB.com in October. “There’s some built-in situations for us that are going to have to be addressed … We also have some young players that are going to mesh into our club.”
Like all young players, Crawford and Painter come with questions. Crawford’s chronically high ground ball rates (59.4% in 2025) limit his offensive upside and bring into question how well he’ll handle MLB pitching. Painter’s stuff has not been as crisp following Tommy John surgery and he labored in Triple-A. Young players are risky. They also bring upside and energy.
The youth movement could extend beyond Crawford and Painter too. Aidan Miller, the club’s top prospect, will play third base in Triple-A and could get a quick call up should Bohm (an impending free agent) fall flat. Gage Wood, last year’s first-round draft pick, has the stuff to rocket through the system. How quickly will the Phillies turn to him if the rotation or bullpen needs a boost?
At the end of the day the Phillies will go as far as Harper, Luzardo, Sánchez, Schwarber, Turner, Wheeler, et al take them this year. If the veterans don’t do their part, the jig is up. The young players could be what separates the Phillies in the NL East race though, and perhaps even in short postseason series. Philadelphia will lean on prospects more than they have in some time this summer.
Projected starting lineup
- RF Ronald Acuña Jr., RHB
- 1B Matt Olson, LHB
- 3B Austin Riley, RHB
- C Drake Baldwin, LHB
- LF Mike Yastrzemski, LHB
- 2B Ozzie Albies, SHB
- CF Michael Harris II, LHB
- DH Dominic Smith, LHB
- SS Mauricio Dubón, RHB
Jurickson Profar’s looming suspension means the DH spot is unsettled. Smith’s name is written in pencil above, not ink. Sean Murphy is due back from hip surgery a few weeks into the season and figures to slot in at DH. Ha-Seong Kim will miss the start of the season after slipping on ice over the winter and hurting his finger. That pushes Dubón into the starting shortstop spot, with Jorge Mateo the primary backup. Jonah Heim will back up Baldwin, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, at least until Murphy returns. Unless non-roster outfielder Brewer Hicklen forces the issue, Eli White will be Yastrzemski’s primary platoon partner.
Projected rotation
- LHP Chris Sale
- RHP Spencer Strider
- RHP Reynaldo López
- RHP Grant Holmes
- RHP Bryce Elder
Despite being down Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep, both of whom had loose bodies removed from their elbows earlier this spring, the Braves are at least considering a six-man rotation early in the season. Veterans Carlos Carrasco and Martín Pérez would be candidates for the No. 6 spot. López (shoulder surgery) and Holmes (partially torn UCL) are both coming off injuries too, plus Strider was up and down in 2025. A six-man rotation to give everyone extra rest seems wise, if the Braves can swing it.
Notable relievers
Iglesias was out-of-this-world good down the stretch last year, good enough to get a $16 million contract for 2026. Suarez, most recently the All-Star closer of the San Diego Padres, is an overqualified setup man. Bummer and Lee are quality left-on-left matchup guys with complementary skill sets — Bummer gets ground balls, Lee gets strikeouts. The rotation is a bit dicey, but if the Braves have a lead after five or six innings, they have the bullpen to turn those leads into wins.
Biggest question: Do they have the depth to survive the season?
The 2026 Braves were done in by injuries. At one point, their entire five-man Opening Day rotation was on the injured list. Riley missed significant time, as did Acuña, whose season debut was delayed following his 2024 torn ACL. Per Baseball Prospectus, the Braves lost the eighth fewest games to injury last year, but the fourth most WAR. The injuries they had were significant.
Injuries are only part of the story though. A lack of depth is what actually did the Braves in. Players went down and the replacements were inadequate. Atlanta used an MLB-leading 19 different starters last year, including 10 pitchers who made at least four starts, and five of the 10 had a sub-100 ERA+. They had seven players take 200-plus plate appearances with a sub-100 OPS+.
“I wouldn’t say there’s one thing that we’re focused on, saying, ‘This is the one thing we need to do,'” president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told MLB.com at the Winter Meetings. “When you don’t make the playoffs and finish below .500, there are a lot of areas where you can improve.”
It can be difficult for a contending team with players locked in at so many positions to build depth in the offseason. Free agents look for playing time, not to sit on the bench behind a player with a long-term contract, so you’re limited to trades (it takes two to tango) and minor-league contracts (not the most appealing player group). Anthopoulos could only do so much.
I like to use projections to measure depth. Granted, this is not the most in-depth analysis, but here are the number of 4-WAR (All-Star caliber players), 2-WAR (average players), and 1-WAR (competent depth guys) players the Braves and other National League contenders have, per ZiPS projections (keep in mind projections are inherently conservative):
No one can match the Dodgers and projections always underrate the Brewers because they’re so good at maximizing players. The projections see meh depth players, the Brewers see opportunities to optimize skill sets. Anyway, the Braves are right there with those other teams in 1-WAR players. At least on paper, they lag a bit in 2-WAR guys, though not so much I’d freak out.
Bottom line, the Braves cannot survive a repeat of last year’s injury problems. They didn’t just lose a lot of good players; they lost them at the same time. Their depth looks OK per the projections. Injuries will happen. That’s baseball. The team that best survives them will have such an advantage in the NL East race. The Braves couldn’t do that in 2025. They’ll have to find a way in 2026.
Projected starting lineup
- CF Jakob Marsee, LHB
- 2B Xavier Edwards, SHB
- LF Kyle Stowers, LHB
- C Agustín Ramírez, RHB
- DH Griffin Conine, LHB
- SS Otto Lopez, RHB
- 1B Liam Hicks, LHB
- 3B Connor Norby, RHB
- RF Owen Caissie, LHB
Only two of those players (Conine and Edwards) were acquired by the previous front office. POBO Peter Bendix has completely overhauled the roster since taking over in November 2023. The Marlins figure to use platoons aplenty. Heriberto Hernandez, Christopher Morel, and Javier Sanoja are all righty bats who could share time with Caissie, Conine, and Hicks. Graham Pauley’s forearm injury means Norby won’t have much competition at third base out of the gate. Hicks is also Miami’s backup catcher.
Projected rotation
- RHP Sandy Alcantara
- RHP Eury Pérez
- RHP Chris Paddack
- RHP Max Meyer
- LHP Braxton Garrett
The Marlins traded away Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers in the offseason, but are still pretty deep in rotation options. Meyer missed much of last season after hip surgery and Garrett missed all of last season thanks to elbow surgery, so they will be handled carefully this year. Righty Janson Junk is also in the rotation mix, as are top pitching prospects Robby Snelling and Thomas White. It is a question of when we’ll see those two lefties this year, not if. Snelling is ahead of White and figures to debut sooner.
Notable relievers
Fairbanks is the rare free agent who signed for more money after having his club option declined. His former team, the Tampa Bay Rays, declined an $11 million club option. The Marlins then gave him a one-year, $13 million contract. Fairbanks will be manager Clayton McCullough’s top ninth-inning option after Bender, Faucher, Phillips, and Ronny Henriquez shared closing duties last year. Henriquez, Miami’s top reliever in 2025, will miss 2026 with elbow surgery.
Biggest question: Can they build on their strong finish to 2025?
Last year’s 79-83 record represented a 17-win improvement for the Marlins, though their minus-89 run differential was second worst in the NL and more in line with a 72-win team. BaseRuns had them as a true talent 74-win team. Going 10-4 in those coin flip extra inning games is a great way to outperform your run differential and BaseRuns record though, and the Marlins did exactly that.
The record and run differential hide the fact that, for nearly two-thirds of the season, the Marlins were one of the better teams in baseball. Something clicked in mid-June:
|
First 66 games |
25-41 |
minus-93 |
|
Last 96 games |
54-42 |
plus-4 |
That plus-4 run differential isn’t amazing, but gosh, that represents real progress. This young, still-rebuilding team outscored its opponents for close to 100 games. It’s not often a team does that and it turns out to be a total mirage. Miami was 17th in both position player and pitcher WAR during those last 96 games. Again, not amazing, but real progress for a team that lost 100 games in 2024.
Now the Marlins have to build on that. Not just do it again, but build on it. Norby and especially Ramírez appear to have more to give offensively, plus Caissie will get regular playing time. He was the headliner in the Cabrera trade and is a top 100 prospect with 41 home runs in 226 Triple-A games. Snelling and Thomas are nearing their debuts. There is upside aplenty on the roster.
Teams with a wealth of young talent can make big jumps up the standings in short order. The 2014-15 Cubs are the best recent example. They went from 73 wins one year to 97 the next. The Pittsburgh Pirates went from 79 wins in 2012 to 94 wins in 2013. Can the Marlins do that? It will be tough, but last year’s finish was a reason to think the franchise is moving in the right direction.
“I think we were really excited about the progress we made last year, but 79 wins is not the goal,” Bendix told MLB.com at the Winter Meetings. “There’s a lot of different areas that we want to improve and a lot of young players that we think can offer that improvement for those different areas.”
Projected starting lineup
- DH James Wood, LHB
- SS CJ Abrams, LHB
- RF Dylan Crews, RHB
- LF Daylen Lile, LHB
- 1B Andrés Chaparro, RHB
- 2B Luis García Jr., LHB
- C Keibert Ruiz, SHB
- 3B Brady House, RHB
- CF Jacob Young, RHB
I would not take that specific batting order to heart, or even several of those players. It could be García at first and Nasim Nuñez at second, with Chaparro in Triple-A. Infielder José Tena could work his way into the mix somewhere. Crews, Lile, Ruiz, and Wood are the only players locked into full-time jobs right now. Abrams and Young are trade candidates and could be moved before Opening Day. The roster uncertainty reflects the status of Washington’s rebuild (i.e. very early).
Projected rotation
- RHP Miles Mikolas
- RHP Cade Cavalli
- RHP Brad Lord
- RHP Josiah Gray
- RHP Zack Littell
- LHP Foster Griffin
Erstwhile ace MacKenzie Gore, a key piece of the Juan Soto trade return (like Abrams and Wood), was traded away over the winter. Cavalli is now the centerpiece as far as potential long-term building blocks. Gray is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and may not be ready for Opening Day, and the fact he has only two years of control remaining makes him a trade candidate. Griffin and Mikolas were signed to eat innings, and Jake Irvin is still around as another low-upside innings guy. Lord had a sneaky good 2025 and is an interesting dude. Otherwise, this has a chance to be the worst non-Colorado Rockies rotation in baseball in 2026.
Notable relievers
The Nationals remade their bullpen on the fly last year and specifically targeted relievers with big velocity, something they sorely lacked. Beeter had success after coming over in a deadline trade with the Yankees and figures to be new manager Blake Butera’s go-to high-leverage option. No roles in this bullpen are settled. It’ll be in a state of flux all year.
Biggest question: Will we see any fruits of the rebuild this year?
It absolutely stinks the Nationals knocked it out of the park with the Soto trade only to squander it. Abrams, Gore, and Wood should have been foundational pieces that took the Nationals out of the rebuild. Instead, four years later, Gore was traded for prospects as part of the same rebuild and Abrams will likely go next. It’s a bummer, but also a necessary step for the franchise.
Outside of one very questionable hire, new Nationals POBO Paul Toboni did excellent work upgrading a scouting and player development apparatus that has been lacking for a long time. It is the single biggest reason only the Rockies have lost more games since Washington’s 2019 World Series championship. There just hasn’t been enough help coming up through the system.
Improved scouting and player development can take time (we’re talking years) to impact the major-league club. It is also something you can begin to see right away. Pitching prospects can go from lowercase-g guys to capital-G Guys seemingly overnight with the things teams can do these days. Swing changes, including bat speed and exit velocity gains, can be picked up in short order.
“Whether it’s hitting, pitching, some other area of development, what we want to dominate is basically two areas with our coaches,” Toboni told the Baltimore Banner last month. “One, they know their you-know-what, so when players go to them and need to get better, these folks know how to get them better. And secondly, they have to be able to deliver the message in a manner that gets players to really buy into what they’re saying, because that’s really important. We call it the art of coaching.”
The Nationals will almost assuredly be bad again in 2026. Likely very bad. A successful season in Year 1 under Toboni will involve young players on the roster taking steps forward (Crews and Ruiz, first and foremost) and the farm system getting headed in the right direction. That’s it. The focus is on the future, not 2026, which is good because 2026 may be tough to sit through.
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