The competition for Team USA in the 2026 World Baseball Classic gets tougher on Monday night. The unbeaten Americans are set for a bout against Mexico in Houston. Mexico, like Team USA, is 2-0 in pool play thus far. Both teams have defeated Brazil and Great Britain so far in the tournament. Paul Skenes is on the mound for the U.S. on Monday to make his WBC debut.
Here’s what to know about USA vs. Mexico for Monday night.
USA vs. Mexico: Where to watch, odds
- Time: 8 p.m. ET | Date: Monday, March 9
- Location: Daikin Park — Houston
- TV channel: Fox | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
- Starting pitchers: Paul Skenes (USA) vs. Manny Barreda (MEX)
- Odds (via FanDuel): USA -3.5 (-108) | O/U: 11.5
Skenes heads up USA pitching plan
NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes gets the ball to start the game for USA, and that’s a tall order for Mexico. The 23-year-old Skenes has a 1.96 ERA in 55 MLB starts for the Pirates. He’s struck out 386 in 320 ⅔ innings while having walked 74. He’s held opposing hitters to a .198/.253/.302 line in his MLB career.
There are pitch limits in this event (pitchers can’t throw more than 65 pitches in pool play), and the USA starters aren’t getting deep into games. Logan Webb went four innings in the first game, and Tarik Skubal only lasted three in his start. Skenes worked up to 55 pitches in his most recent spring training game for the Pirates, so it’s always possible he’s stretched a little further. Still, we’ve seen USA manager Mark DeRosa’s plan in action so far, which is to piggyback his aces with the other starting pitchers on the team. Clay Holmes and Michael Wacha have been used for multi-inning relief outings so far and that leaves Matthew Boyd for this one.
The bullpen is fully rested, so the best guess here for the workload would be something like Skenes for four innings, Boyd for three and then David Bednar and Mason Miller for one apiece. Perhaps Skenes goes five and Boyd two or Skenes works four with Boyd only going two and someone like Griffin Jax or Brad Keller gets the seventh.
Barreda starts for Mexico
Right-hander Manny Barreda is the starting pitcher for Mexicom and he’s got just 2 ⅔ innings of MLB experience. That was back in 2021 for the Orioles. The 37-year-old right-hander has been pitching in the Mexican and Chinese leagues since that season. In nearly 100 innings in the Mexican League (Independent) last season, he had a 6.22 ERA. Walks and home runs are a problem.
Obviously, it won’t just be Berreda. All-Star closer Andrés Muñoz anchors a capable Mexico bullpen.
Mexico has some offensive firepower
In its two games so far — against quite-inferior pitching vs. what they’ll see against USA — Mexico is hitting .338/.442/.692 in the WBC. Most of the damage has been done by names familiar to MLB fans, such as Alek Thomas, Jarren Duran, Jonathan Aranda, Alejandro Kirk, Randy Arozarena and Joey Ortiz.
This is the best team USA has played so far — and it’s not close.
Patience and power for USA
Many of the teams not in the top tier in the WBC have top-heavy pitching staffs. This bodes well for USA to wear teams down during the course of a game and score loads of late runs due to bullpen attrition. An 8-5 lead late against Brazil turned into a 15-5 win. Team USA trailed Great Britain, 1-0, heading into the middle innings before exploding for nine runs.
The biggest thing one would notice is the patience at the plate leading to so much traffic on the bases for USA. Some of the lesser pitchers don’t have stuff that they trust to get by the USA bats in the strike zone, so they hope to get USA hitters to chase. It hasn’t been working. That leads to a walk parade and, eventually, someone needs to get a pitch to hit and come through with extra bases to break the game open.
Through two games, USA has drawn 24 walks compared to just eight strikeouts. The five doubles and two home runs are actually lower than expected, given the robust amount of power hitting on this squad.
Perhaps it’s only a matter of time before we see more.
Prediction
Skenes slices through the Mexico order nearly two times while USA jumps on Berreda early. Prediction: Team USA 8, Mexico 2
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