World Baseball Classic bold predictions: A Cinderella run, a home run record, a new champion and more

At long last, the World Baseball Classic has arrived. The 2026 WBC is underway this week in Tokyo, San Juan, Houston, and Miami, and will conclude with the Championship Game at loanDepot Park on March 17. We can only hope we get a finish as thrilling as the Mike Trout vs. Shohei Ohtani showdown in 2023. It was the most captivating baseball moment of the year, hands down.

“There’s really no grudge match,” USA captain Aaron Judge said last month about a potential Championship Game rematch with Japan. “It’s about me representing the U.S. for the first time and going out there and bringing that gold home.”

Ohtani and Japan will look to defend their crown, albeit with a roster that is, on paper, a little less imposing than the 2023 squad that ran the table. Here is what you need to know about the WBC and here are the WBC pools:

The first round (i.e. pool play) is a round robin and the top two teams in each pool advance to the quarterfinals. From there, it’s a single-elimination tournament. The top team in Pool A will play the runner-up of Pool B in the quarterfinals, and vice versa. The same goes for Pools C and D. Those winners meet in the semifinals, then those winners meet in the Championship Game.

Here are our WBC Power Rankings and our WBC roster takeaways. Here now are five sure-to-be-wrong five bold predictions for this year’s tournament.

Italy will go on a Cinderella run

In 2023, Italy advanced out of pool play before losing to Japan in the quarterfinals. They had a much, much more favorable draw that year though. They were in a pool with Chinese Taipei, Cuba, Panama, and the Netherlands. This year Italy is in the same pool as Mexico and USA, two of the three or four best teams in the tournament, and the heavy favorites to advance out of Pool B. 

My first bold prediction says Italy, despite that tough draw, will escape the first round and advance to the quarterfinals. That would qualify as a Cinderella run to me. I’ll say Mexico is the team that gets left behind, meaning USA and Italy will be the two pool play winners. It would be a colossal upset. Mexico finished third in 2023, losing a one-run game to Japan in the semifinals.

I do love Italy’s roster though. Michael Lorenzen and Aaron Nola are the two best starters Italy has ever had in the WBC. The lineup features plenty of lefty heft (Jac Caglianone, Jakob Marsee, Vinnie Pasquantino, Kyle Teel). The bullpen, often an issue, has several MLB arms (Kyle Nicolas, Adam Ottavino, Greg Weissert). That last part is crucial to a Cinderella run. Get a lead, close it out.

Korea will return to WBC prominence

It has been a disappointing few years for South Korea in the WBC. They finished third in 2006 and lost the Championship Game to Japan in 2009, but they haven’t made it out of pool play since. Korea’s loss to Australia in 2023 gave Australia the tiebreaker, so Australia advanced to the quarterfinals and Korea went home. That’s three straight WBCs with a first-round exit.

This year is the Korea finally breaks through again and advances to the quarterfinals, I boldly predict. Japan is a near-lock to advance out of Pool C, leaving one spot for Australia, Chinese Taipei, Czechia, and Korea. That’s a spot Korea should win — will win, we predict — with Jung Hoo Lee and Korea Baseball Organization stars Do Yeong Kim and Ja Wook Koo on the roster.

Hiromi Itoh will become a household name

Orix Buffaloes right-hander Shunpeita Yamashita is widely considered the best and most talented pitcher in Japan, though injuries, including back trouble, has limited him to only 51 starts the last three years. He made only 11 starts in 2025 and was left off Japan’s WBC roster. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be Japan’s ace. Itoh will be their No. 2 and is more than worthy of that spot.

The 28-year-old Itoh is the ace of the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters and the reigning Eiji Sawamura Award winner (Japan’s Cy Young). He threw 196 ⅔ innings with 195 strikeouts and a 2.52 ERA last year and, like most top Japan pitchers, works with a deep arsenal. Itoh boasts a 93-95 mph fastball, a splitter, a curveball, a traditional slider, and a sweeper.

The 2023 WBC really put Yamamoto (and Roki Sasaki, for that matter) on the radar for MLB fans, and he was posted after that season. I boldly predict Itoh will make the Yamamoto “jump” this WBC and become a household name even among casual baseball fans. There’s chatter Itoh will be posted after the season. MLB fans will get their first real look at him in the coming weeks. 

USA will set the WBC home run record

The sheer talent level is overwhelming. This is, by far, the best roster USA has ever taken into the WBC. They have the reigning AL MVP (Judge), both MVP runners-up (Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber), both Cy Young winners (Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal), and countless other superstars. Bryce Harper, Gunnar Henderson, Mason Miller, Bobby Witt Jr., on and on I could go.

Because of all that talent, this next bold prediction says USA will set the single-WBC team home run record. Here are the leaders:

1. Mexico: 14 in 2009
2. Venezuela: 13 in 2009
3. USA: 12 in 2023
4. USA: 12 in 2009
5. Several tied with 11

Mexico hosted pool play in Mexico City in 2009, where the elevation is about 7,300 feet. That’s 2,000 feet higher than Coors Field, so yeah, the ball was flying. They hit those 14 home runs in only six games and slugged .576 as a team.

This USA team has the talent to break Mexico’s record and slug 15-plus home runs this WBC. Keep in mind the maximum number of games any team can play in the WBC is seven, so we’re talking more than two homers per game, on average. Judge, Raleigh, Schwarber, et al, are more than up to the task. The single-WBC homer record falls this month.

The winner will be …

… the Dominican Republic. The lineup reads like an All-Star lineup (Junior Caminero, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Manny Machado, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Julio Rodríguez, Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr.) and the rotation is as formidable as it’s ever been with Brayan Bello and Cristopher Sánchez joining Sandy Alcantara. Abner Uribe is a late-inning force bullpen as well.

To win the WBC, the Dominican Republic will first have to advance out of Pool D, which should be a given, but they failed to do that in 2023 with largely the same roster. It was a massive disappointment and this group presumably has a chip on its shoulder and is extra motivated this time around. If the Dominican Republic loses in the first round again this WBC … yeesh.

Anyway, advancing out of pool play sets up a likely meeting with Japan in either the quarterfinals or semifinals, then potentially USA in the Championship Game. The Dominican Republic could, conceivably, have to go through Japan, Venezuela, and USA in single-elimination games to win the WBC. The case can be made those are three best teams in the tournament.

The Dominican Republic’s roster is stacked though and the players surely want to atone for 2023. As for WBC MVP, let’s go with Tatis, who has a flare for the dramatic and can impact the game in so many ways. His MVP win can be based on standout defense and baserunning, not just monster dingers. The Dominican Republic will win the 2026 WBC. It has been foretold.