Agent’s Take: Asking prices for 10 intriguing offensive players ahead of free agency

Ask and you shall receive. Ideally, that’s how things go for players and agents in free agency. Things usually aren’t that easy. There’s always a risk of pricing a client out of the market with exorbitant demands. The easiest way to get an asking or target price is with multiple NFL teams vying for a player’s services. If a player’s market is soft, lowering the asking price will likely become a necessity.

Agents and NFL teams may have already gotten a sense of the 2026 free agent market. Meetings between agents of impending free agents and teams routinely occur at the NFL Scouting Combine, which ended on March 2. These types of discussions technically aren’t permitted by NFL rules. Teams are rarely penalized for tampering with players from other teams when those players are scheduled to become free agents. 

The exclusive negotiating rights teams have had with their impending free agents ends on March 9. That’s when NFL teams are allowed to negotiate with the agents of prospective unrestricted free agents during a two-day period beginning March 9 at noon ET and ending at 4 p.m. ET on March 11. Prospective UFAs who don’t have an agent can also negotiate with front office executives of teams. Players can’t sign deals with new clubs until the 2026 league year and free agency officially begin at 4 p.m. ET. A player’s ability to re-sign with his current club is allowed during the period.

It was my responsibility while working on the agent side to create target or asking prices for the firm’s clients headed toward free agency regardless of whether I was the lead agent. Along those lines, I have set target prices with total contract value, overall guarantees and amount fully guaranteed at signing for 10 intriguing offensive players who will be unrestricted free agents or were designated as franchise players. 

Players don’t necessarily sign for their target prices since free agency is a fluid process where adaptations must be made to changing market conditions. Some players are disappointed in free agency’s outcome because their market never develops for a variety of reasons (age, unrealistic contract demands, supply and demand at playing position, etc.).

Remember the target or asking prices for these players may be on the high side and aren’t necessarily what their actual deals will be.

QB Daniel Jones

($37.833 million transition tag)

• Contract package: $180 million/4 years ($45 million per year worth up to $190 million with incentives)
• Overall guarantees: $100 million
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $90 million

Jones received the seldom used transition tag to ensure that he remains with the Indianapolis Colts for at least the 2026 season. The transition tag gives the Colts matching rights if Jones signs an offer sheet with another team.

Jones, who signed a one-year, $14 million deal worth up to $17.7 million in 2025 free agency, was having a surprising career resurrection before tearing his right Achilles during a Week 14 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last season. He was an early-season MVP candidate when the Colts were averaging a league-leading 33.8 points per game and were off to a league-best 7-1 start.

The average salary for starting quarterbacks in 2025, excluding those on rookie contracts which are strictly determined by draft position, was $44,067,508 per year, according to NFLPA data. Jones was much better than average when healthy last season.

It remains to be seen when Jones will be recovered from his injury. Jones being ready for the start of the 2026 regular season isn’t out of the question. 

WR George Pickens

($27.298 million franchise tag)

• Contract package: $150 million/4 years ($37.5 million per year)
• Overall guarantees: $105 million
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $85 million

The calculated risk the Dallas Cowboys took by trading a 2026 third-round pick and a 2027 fifth-round pick to the Pittsburgh Steelers for Pickens and a 2027 sixth-round pick last May paid big dividends. Pickens had 93 receptions, 1,429 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns, all career highs, while averaging 15.4 yards per catch in 2025. He ranked in the NFL’s top 10 in each of these categories last season. Pickens was named to the Pro Bowl and earned second-team All-Pro honors both for the first time in his career because of his efforts.

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones indicated during the 2025 season that having two high-priced wide receivers isn’t going to be an issue. Pickens and CeeDee Lamb are arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver duo. Lamb is currently the NFL’s third-highest-paid wide receiver with the four-year, $136 million contract extension, averaging $34 million per year, he signed in August 2024. The deal has $100 million in guarantees, of which $67 million was fully guaranteed at signing. At the time, both marks were the second-most ever in a wide receiver contract. The $67 million fully guaranteed at signing included a wide receiver-record $38 million signing bonus.

Being patient could work in Pickens’ favor. His best deal might come from letting the wide receiver market further develop. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 2025’s NFL Offensive Player of the Year, recently said he believes he should be the league’s highest-paid wide receiver. Ja’Marr Chase sets the wide receiver market with the four-year, $161 million extension, averaging $40.25 million per year, he received from the Cincinnati Bengals last March. The Seattle Seahawks intend on extending Smith-Njigba’s contract this offseason. Nico Collins and Puka Nacua, who are in contract years, are also in line for new deals from the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams. These deals getting done before the July 15 deadline for franchise players to sign long term would be ideal for Pickens. 

TE Kyle Pitts

($15.045 million franchise tag)

• Contract package: $70 million/4 years ($17.5 million per year)
• Overall guarantees: $45 million
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $37.5 million

Pitts was the highest drafted tight end in NFL history when the Atlanta Falcons made him 2021’s fourth overall pick. He was thought to be the future of the tight end position after a Pro Bowl rookie season with 68 receptions and 1,026 receiving yards. Pitts didn’t come close to that type of production again until last season. He was second in the NFL among tight ends with a career-high 88 receptions and 928 receiving yards in 2025. Pitts was selected to his second Pro Bowl and was named a second-team All-Pro in 2025.

C Tyler Linderbaum

• Contract package: $95 million/4 years ($23.75 million per year)
• Overall guarantees: $60 million
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $52.5 million

The price of Linderbaum’s fifth-year option salary is the reason why he isn’t under contract for the 2026 season. The $23.402 million cost, which was the 2025 franchise tag for offensive linemen because he was named to the Pro Bowl on the original ballot in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, doesn’t reflect the center market. Since there aren’t specific option-year salaries for center, guard and tackle, the amount is the same regardless of position. The NFL’s highest-paid center is Creed Humphrey with the four-year, $72 million extension, averaging $18 million per year, he received from the Kansas City Chiefs during the 2024 preseason. 

Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta revealed during his media session at the NFL combine last week that he has offered Linderbaum a market-setting deal to prevent him from becoming a free agent. He also referred to Linderbaum as the league’s best center. Linderbaum should become the NFL’s first $20 million-per-year center. The real question is how much above that mark.

RB Breece Hall

($14.293 million franchise tag)

• Contract package: $62 million/4 years ($15.5 million per year)
• Overall guarantees: $37.5 million
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $32.5 million

Hall had a career-best 1,065 rushing yards in 2025. It was the first time a New York Jets running back hit the 1,000-yard rushing mark since Chris Ivory in 2015. Hall has dual-threat capabilities. He caught a career-high 76 passes in 2023.

Preventing Hall from hitting the open market with a franchise tag made sense for the Jets financially. The Jets have an abundance of 2026 salary cap space. There’s approximately $74 million of cap room after Hall’s franchise tag.

The franchise tag could pave the way for Hall to justify more money and/or better structure than if he hadn’t gotten the designation. A second franchise tag for Hall in 2027 at an NFL collective bargaining agreement mandated 20% increase over his 2026 number will be $17,151,600. Hall would make nearly $31.5 million from two straight franchise tags for an average of just under $15.75 million per year.

Getting the richest running back contract in Jets history might be an important benchmark to Hall. That distinction belongs to Le’Veon Bell. He signed a four-year, $52.5 million deal, averaging $13.125 million per year with $35 million of guarantees where $27 million was fully guaranteed at signing, in 2019 free agency. Incentives and salary escalators made Bell’s deal worth as much as $60.15 million.

QB Malik Willis

• Contract package: $50 million/2 years ($25 million per year)
• Overall guarantees: $35 million
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $35 million

Willis played well in limited action after the Green Bay Packers acquired him from the Tennessee Titans in a 2024 preseason trade. He completed 78.7% of his passes (70 of 89 attempts) for 972 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions to post a 134.6 passer rating in 11 games, which included three starts, during his two seasons with the Packers. The contractual blueprint for Willis is the two-year, $40 million deal with $30 million fully guaranteed that Justin Fields received from the New York Jets in free agency last year.

WR Alec Pierce

• Contract package: $30 million/3 years ($30 million per year)
• Overall guarantees: $62.5 million 
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $62.5 million

Pierce has become one of the NFL’s top deep threats. He has led the NFL in yards per catch in each of the last two seasons with 22.3 in 2024 and 21.3 in 2025. Pierce had career highs in 2025 with 47 receptions and 1,003 receiving yards. The Indianapolis Colts are trying to keep Pierce from hitting the open market by re-signing him before the two-day negotiating period begins.

RB Kenneth Walker III

• Contract package: $39 million/3 years ($13 million per year)
• Overall guarantees: $27.5 million
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $27.5 million

Walker should be the beneficiary of the New York Jets designating Breece Hall as a franchise player. He is clearly the top running back available in free agency. Walker had 1,027 rushing yards for the Seattle Seahawks while splitting carries with Zach Charbonnet last season. He capitalized on Charbonnet tearing the ACL in his left knee during a divisional playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers. Walker rushed for 313 yards on 65 carries with four touchdowns in three postseason games. He earned Super Bowl LX MVP honors with 135 yards on 27 carries. 

OT Rasheed Walker

• Contract package: $90 million/4 years ($22.5 million per year)
• Overall guarantees: $55 million
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $47.5 million

Walker is the best young left tackle available on the open market. According ESPN Analytics, Walker had a 93.8% pass-block win rate to rank 11th among offensive tackles last season. Walker should be encouraged by Dan Moore Jr., who is an inferior player, signing a four-year, $82 million contract, averaging $20.5 million per year, with the Tennessee Titans in free agency last year. Moore’s deal has $50 million in guarantees, of which $42.51 million was fully guaranteed at signing.

G Alijah Vera-Tucker

• Contract package: $45 million/3 years ($15 million per year)
• Overall guarantees: $31 million
• Fully guaranteed at signing: $24 million

Vera-Tucker could be a “let the buyer beware” proposition. Ability isn’t the issue with Vera-Tucker. It’s availability. Vera-Tucker missed the 2025 season with torn left triceps. Durability concerns didn’t stop the New York Jets from picking up Vera-Tucker’s fully guaranteed $15.313 million fifth-year option for 2025. Vera-Tucker has only played 43 of a possible 85 regular-season games in his five NFL seasons. It wouldn’t be surprising for NFL teams to err on the side of caution with Vera-Tucker where he ultimately signs a one-year “prove-it” deal in the $8 million to $10 million range.