Conference tournament seeding scenarios: How tiebreakers work in the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12

Anyone else confused by a litany of tiebreakers, the impact of head-to-head results and various seeding scenarios approaching conference tournament action this month across college basketball?

If so, you’ve come to the right place.

The importance of conference tournament draws — who you play and when — yields significant value ahead of this month’s NCAA Tournament reveal, a final opportunity to flex in front of the selection committee against quality competition. And while league postseason results are equally weighted to regular-season games, provided additional data point chances for teams on the potential cut line is only a net positive if you win.

While many of the top seeds in upcoming conference tournaments are already decided, there remains a great deal of unknowns behind them entering the final weekend across the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12. After scouring seeding scenarios and tiebreaker rules, here’s what every team near the top of their respective conference must do to garner top billing when brackets are finalized this weekend:

SEC seeding scenarios

Conference tournament: March 11-15 at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville

Heading into Wednesday night’s Texas at Arkansas matchup, there are five SEC teams with seven losses behind league leaders Florida (15-2), Alabama (12-5), Arkansas (11-5) and Tennessee (11-6). Florida has clinched the top seed in the conference tournament entering the finale against Kentucky thanks to 10 consecutive wins. 

The battle for the No. 2 seed is up for grabs this weekend.

• The best seed Arkansas can earn is No. 2 by virtue of wins over Texas and Missouri (March 7) and a loss by Alabama to Auburn. Alabama will garner the No. 2 seed if the Crimson Tide beat Auburn to finish 13-5. If Arkansas finishes with the same record as Alabama, the Crimson Tide get the tiebreaker due to its head-to-head win over the Razorbacks. Alabama can finish no worse than the No. 3 seed.
• Tennessee appears to be headed toward the No. 3 seed as long as the Volunteers beat Vanderbilt. In the event of a potential six-team tie at 11-7 overall for third in the conference standings, Missouri would be the No. 3 seed by virtue of a round-robin record (4-2) above Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, and ahead of Arkansas and Texas based on winning percentage against the top-seeded Gators (1-0).

The top four seeds in the SEC Tournament begin play Friday, March 13 with eight total games being played before those squads take the court. All it takes is two wins as a top-4 seed to reach the tournament title game on March 15 in Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena.

Latest CBS Sports bracketology prediction: 10 SEC teams invited; Auburn is currently one of the first four out

ACC seeding scenarios

Conference tournament: March 10-14 at Spectrum Center in Charlotte

North Carolina’s crucial Tuesday night win over Clemson provides a clearer ACC picture entering the final weekend of the regular season, momentarily giving the Tar Heels a No. 3 seed opportunity if they beat Duke (March 7) and get two losses from Miami (SMU, Louisville). Duke is the tournament’s top seed already and is eyeing a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament as well. Ahead of Wednesday’s games, Miami is battling for the No. 3 seed with North Carolina and Clemson behind the Blue Devils and Virginia in Charlotte next week.

• Virginia will be the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament. Independent of Saturday’s contest with Virginia Tech, that seed is clinched since the Cavaliers hold a tiebreaker over Miami with a head-to-head win. 
• If the Hurricanes win out and Duke beats North Carolina, Miami will be the No. 3 seed. If Miami splits and Duke beats North Carolina, that seed still belongs to the Hurricanes next week. 
• Clemson’s only path to the No. 3 seed is two losses from Miami and Duke beating North Carolina, which would create a three-team tie at 12-6 overall. The Tigers would hold the tiebreaker based on winning percentage against No. 8 teams (California and SMU; 2-0).
• North Carolina can secure the No. 3 seed with a win over Duke and two losses by Miami. The Tar Heels could fall to as low as No. 5 if they lose to the Blue Devils, Miami loses twice and Clemson beats Georgia Tech.
• The best NC State can finish is 11-7 overall in the ACC, which would put the Wolfpack as the No. 7 seed (NC State would be the No. 6 seed if Miami splits its final two games). Regardless, NC State would open tournament play on Wednesday, March 11. If the Wolfpack are seeded seventh, they would play the No. 2 seed next. If seeded sixth, NC State would next battle the No. 3 seed. NC State’s best possible seed is No. 5 by virtue of finishing 11-7 overall and in a tie with Clemson and Louisville. The Wolfpack hold the tiebreaker over both based on a head-to-head over the Tigers and a better record against California and SMU (2-0) than the Cardinals.

With the top two seeds in the ACC Tournament secured, the final few games will decide the war for seed No. 3-7.

Latest CBS Sports bracketology prediction: Eight ACC teams invited; NC State and Clemson as No. 8 seeds

Big Ten seeding scenarios

Conference tournament: March 10-15 at United Center in Chicago

Only two games separate five teams vying for the No. 2 seed behind No. 1 seed Michigan approaching the final weekend. Michigan State, Nebraska and Illinois all have an opportunity to garner the second line, which would in turn mean a quarterfinal matchup with likely the No. 10 vs. No. 7 winner in Chicago.

• If Michigan State beats Rutgers and Michigan, the Spartans will be the No. 2 at 14-4 overall in league play. Tom Izzo’s team could also get the No. 2 seed by splitting its final two games and getting help from Iowa against Nebraska. That would put the Spartans in a tie with Illinois, but they would win a tiebreaker due to a head-to-head advantage. A loss to Michigan State in either of its final two games opens the door for Nebraska and others.
• If the Huskers beat Iowa this weekend, Nebraska could find itself in a three-way tie for the No. 2 seed with Michigan State and Illinois at 15-5 overall. In that scenario, the Huskers get the No. 2 seed based on their round-robin record (2-1) against the pair.
• Illinois could earn the No. 2 seed under one scenario — Michigan State loses out, Iowa beats Nebraska and the Fighting Illini topple Maryland. That would put Illinois alone behind Michigan at 15-5 in league play with Michigan State, Nebraska and Purdue all tied at 14-6.
• Two teams in the current NCAA Tournament projection who could use more wins are Ohio State and UCLA. If all goes chalk this week, the Bruins are heading toward the No. 7 seed in the league tournament, while the Buckeyes would be seeded No. 8. However, if Ohio State beats Indiana and UCLA loses to USC, the Buckeyes jump ahead of the Bruins by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker with both teams finishing 12-8 overall.

The top four seeds in the Big Ten Tournament get byes until the quarterfinals (March 13). Securing one of those seeds — preferably the No. 2 or No. 3 — is essential in getting to a potential championship final against heavy favorite Michigan on March 15.

Latest CBS Sports bracketology prediction: Nine Big Ten teams invited; Ohio State as a No. 9 seed and UCLA as a No. 10

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Big 12 seeding scenarios

Conference tournament: March 10-14 at T. Mobile Center in Kansas City

With Arizona riding a five-game winning streak that includes victories over Houston, BYU, Kansas and Iowa State, the Wildcats have clinched a regular-season title in the Big 12 and the top seed in the league tournament. The fight for the No. 2 and 3 seeds needs a bit more explaining with Houston at Baylor this week and an eight-game slate scheduled for the weekend.

• If the unthinkable happens and Houston drops its final two games to Baylor and Oklahoma State, Kelvin Sampson’s team could be looking at a disastrous No. 5 seed in the conference tournament by virtue of a three-team tie at 12-6 overall.  Houston would be below Kansas and Iowa State based on a round-robin record (0-2). The far more likely scenario for the Cougars is victories over both teams to finish 14-4 overall as the No. 2 seed.
• Texas Tech’s best-case seeding is No. 2 with a win over BYU and major help from either Baylor or Oklahoma State against Houston. Simply taking care of business against BYU and not worrying about Houston dropping another game puts the Red Raiders as the No. 3 seed.
• Bill Self’s Jayhawks are likely going to seize the No. 4 seed at 12-6 overall or No. 5 at 11-7 based on their finale against Kansas State. In the event Kansas finishes tied with Iowa State in the conference standings, the Jayhawks hold the tiebreaker based on winning percentage against Arizona (1-1).
• Firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, TCU has Cincinnati left. A win over the Bearcats should secure the Horned Frogs the No. 6 seed and an opening-round bye. If the Horned Frogs lose to the Bearcats, they could be facing a No. 8 seed and a far more difficult first game in the league tournament.

Latest CBS Sports bracketology prediction: Eight Big 12 teams invited; TCU one of last four in