2026 AL East division preview: Lineups, rotations and one question for each team

The AL East will once again be the AL Beast in 2026. The AL East sent three teams to the postseason last year and, according to FanGraphs projections, it houses four of the American League’s top six teams this year. There’s a chance the 2026 AL East will become the first division to send four teams to the postseason in the admittedly brief history of the 12-team format.

“I feel like I sit up here every year and talk about the AL East, and for good reason,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said last month. “There’s no question that it’s going to be tough. The division is real. We think we’re one of those teams that can go out and win it. But again, it’s (spring training). All of us and them have a long way to go.”

With Opening Day a little more than three weeks away, here now is our AL East season preview, with everything you need to know about the five teams.

Odds via Caesars

Projected starting lineup

1. CF Trent Grisham, LHB
2. RF Aaron Judge, RHB
3. LF Cody Bellinger, LHB
4. 1B Ben Rice, LHB
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton, RHB
6. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., LHB
7. C Austin Wells, LHB
8. SS José Caballero, RHB
9. 3B Ryan McMahon, LHB

Anthony Volpe is expected to return from offseason shoulder surgery in late April or early May, which will push Caballero to the bench. Paul Goldschmidt and Amed Rosario represent righty matchup bats at first and second/third bases, respectively. The last two bench spots will go to some combination of catcher J.C. Escarra, outfielder Jasson Domínguez, and utility guy Oswaldo Cabrera. If the Yankees are comfortable with Rice as the backup catcher, both Cabrera and Domínguez could be on the bench.

Projected rotation

1. LHP Max Fried
2. RHP Luis Gil
3. RHP Cam Schlittler
4. LHP Ryan Weathers
5. RHP Will Warren

Carlos Rodón (bone spurs) is expected back from his elbow surgery in mid-to-late April. Gerrit Cole (Tommy John surgery) is looking at a June-ish return. Clarke Schmidt (Tommy John surgery) is more of an August/September candidate, at which point the Yankees might just bring him back as a reliever. Veteran swingman Ryan Yarbrough and top pitching prospect Elmer Rodríguez are the next level of rotation depth for the time being.

Notable relievers

The Yankees signed Rafael Montero, now 35, to a minor-league contract last month and there’s a path to him opening the season in the bullpen. Rule 5 Draft pick Cade Winquest seems like a good bet to at least start the season in New York. Righties Jake Bird and Angel Chivilli, and lefty Brent Headrick, are among the depth options who will cycle through the Bronx this summer.

Biggest question: Can they hang around until their starters get healthy?

All things considered, the Yankees had a low-key offseason. Re-signing Bellinger and Grisham were their largest moves. Otherwise, they supplemented the 2025 roster with project pitchers (Chivilli, Weathers, Winquest, etc.) and that’s about it. Many of their big “offseason” additions were made at last summer’s trade deadline: Bednar, Caballero, Doval, McMahon, etc.

I’m not certain the Yankees would come out and admit it, but there is clearly some level of “tread water until Cole and Rodón return” baked into New York’s strategy heading into 2026. Rodón should be back sometime in April. Cole is the big one. He had his elbow rebuilt last spring and did not throw a single pitch in 2025. Cole began facing hitters as part of his rehab two weeks ago.

“It feels different than it has been in quite some time,” Cole told MLB.com last month when asked how his elbow feels. “… I’m just kind of doing exactly what I’ve been told. When I’m told to push, I push. When I’m told not to, I don’t. I really haven’t deviated hardly at all from our targets.”

That challenge will be getting to Rodón’s and then Cole’s returns. Gil and Weathers have lengthy injury histories and Schlittler and Warren are coming off career-high workloads. There is age/injury risk throughout the rotation behind Fried. The Yankees are an achy shoulder or a pulled hamstring away from Yarbrough, a funky soft-tosser, being in the Opening Day rotation.

The Yankees you see in 2026 will look a lot like the Yankees you saw late in 2025. That’s not a bad thing — they won 94 games and had the AL’s best run differential last year — though it made for a boring winter. Counting on a 35 year old to come back from Tommy John surgery without a hitch is dicey, but Cole is a difference-maker and his return could shift the balance of power in the AL East.

“I’m not going to put anything past Gerrit Cole,” Boone told MLB.com last month. “He’s so good at his craft and the success rate on these surgeries is usually pretty good. Everyone’s different, but I’m not going to put any ceilings on what Gerrit could do.”

Projected starting lineup

1. DH George Springer, RHB
2. RF Addison Barger, LHB
3. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., RHB
4. CF Daulton Varsho, LHB
5. C Alejandro Kirk, RHB
6. LF Jesús Sánchez, LHB
7. 3B Kazuma Okamoto, RHB
8. 2B Ernie Clement, RHB
9. SS Andrés Giménez, LHB

Bo Bichette is gone and Anthony Santander will miss most or all of the season following shoulder surgery. Santander’s injury led to the Sánchez trade, and the newcomer will platoon with lefty masher Davis Schneider. Nathan Lukes, Toronto’s regular No. 2 hitter last October, is a man without a role at the moment. Perhaps the Blue Jays will put him in right and play Barger at third base some days?

Projected rotation

1. RHP Kevin Gausman
2. RHP Dylan Cease
3. RHP Trey Yesavage
4. RHP Cody Ponce
5. RHP José Berríos

Max Scherzer returned to Toronto last month and is eyeing a midseason return, not Opening Day. With Shane Bieber’s forearm acting up, plans to use a six-man rotation have temporarily been halted. The hope is he’s not far behind and will be ready sometime in April. Swingman Eric Lauer, who was a bacon-saver at times last year, is next in line to make starts following Bowden Francis’ Tommy John surgery. A full year of Yesavage is one of the single biggest reasons to think the 2026 Blue Jays can be better than the 2025 Blue Jays.

Notable relievers

Varland earned his paycheck last October, appearing in 15 of Toronto’s 18 postseason games and warming up in one of the other three games. Those 15 appearances are a single-postseason record. Hoffman can be combustible, though the Blue Jays bought a pretty good backup plan in Rogers. His funky submarine look will complement Toronto’s hard-throwers nicely.

Biggest question: Can they do all that again?

The Blue Jays were so agonizingly close to their first World Series championship in more than three decades last fall. One-run lead, one out in the ninth, Game 7. It’s about as close as you can get to winning the World Series without actually winning it. The front office wasted no time feeling sorry for themselves. Cease was the offseason’s first major signing, then came Ponce and Okamoto.

“How do you move forward from this point?” president of baseball operations Mark Shapiro told Sportsnet over the winter. “I told (owner Edward Rogers), and I meant it, ‘There’s only one way I know to move forward and that’s to get back to the pursuit, get back to the process.’ We wanted to get back to work for our fans, for each other, because, frankly, it was the only way to find solace.”

As is often the case when a team reaches the World Series, the Blue Jays had a lot go right last year. Perhaps unexpectedly right. Springer, at age 35, set new career highs in batting average (.309) and on-base percentage (.399), and had his second-highest slugging percentage (.560). Did the Blue Jays expect Springer to have a good season? Yes. Did they expect that? I’m not so sure.

There are also little things like backup catcher Tyler Heineman, a career .571 OPS hitter going into 2025, putting up a .777 OPS. Gloveman Myles Straw had his best offensive season in four years. Little was one of the very best relievers in baseball the first three months of the year. Who foresaw Lauer pitching to a 3.77 ERA in 15 starts? I’m not even sure Toronto did.

That isn’t to say the Blue Jays had a charmed season (Giménez and Santander had injuries, Hoffman was at times an adventure in the ninth inning, etc.), but there were a lot of unexpected contributions that elevated them to the AL East title. Some of those things you can’t count on happening again. Cease, Okamoto, Ponce, and Rogers protect against that and also raise the team’s ceiling.

Winning the division and getting to the World Series is the easy part. Getting over the hump and winning it is the hard part. The Blue Jays have all the ingredients of a title contender (an offense that blends contact and power, strong defense, rotation depth, etc.) and last year they had a lot of little things swing their way. They don’t need all that to happen again in 2026, but it sure would help.

Projected starting lineup

1. LF Roman Anthony, LHB
2. SS Trevor Story, RHB
3. DH Jarren Duran, LHB
4. 1B Willson Contreras, RHB
5. RF Wilyer Abreu, LHB
6. C Carlos Narváez, RHB
7. 3B Caleb Durbin, RHB
8. 2B Marcelo Mayer, LHB
9. CF Ceddanne Rafaela, RHB

Where does Masataka Yoshida fit? He doesn’t right now, though he had an .824 OPS last September and all it takes is one injury or one player underperforming to get him back in the lineup. Where does Kristian Campbell fit? He doesn’t right now either. Chances are he’ll open the season back in Triple-A. Romy Gonzalez is a must-start against lefties and his versatility means it will never be hard to get him in the lineup. 

Projected rotation

1. LHP Garrett Crochet
2. LHP Ranger Suárez
3. RHP Sonny Gray
4. RHP Brayan Bello
5. RHP Johan Oviedo

Crochet is on the very short list of the game’s best starters and Suárez is a worthy No. 2. At this point in his career, Gray fits best as his team’s No. 3 starter, not their No. 1, and No. 3 is what he is for the Red Sox. Oviedo has terrific stuff and, now that he’s another year removed from Tommy John surgery, it could be the year the 28-year-old fully launches. He’s listed as the No. 5 starter above. Don’t be surprised if you look up in October and he’s their No. 3 starter behind Crochet and Suárez.

Notable relievers

Last year, Chapman had arguably the finest season in a career that may one day land him in Cooperstown. He and Whitlock figure to form one of the game’s best setup/closer duos. The bullpen after two looks hit or miss. I can’t imagine the Red Sox will wait long to turn to hard-throwing Payton Tolle should the bullpen go off the rails. Heck, he might be in the Opening Day bullpen anyway.

Biggest question: Does this team have enough power?

There is more to this game than hitting home runs, but you do need them, and the best teams tend to hit a lot of them. The 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks are the only team in the last nine years to reach the World Series while finishing in the bottom half of the league in home runs during the regular season. Ball go far, team go far. It is a tried-and-true adage.

Last year’s Red Sox finished 15th in home runs and scored one run (on a solo homer) in the final 15 innings of their Wild Card Series loss to the Yankees. Stringing together base hits and walks to scratch across one or two (or three) runs in an inning is tough to do given how good pitching and defenses are these days. That is especially true when teams lean on their top arms in October.

Red Sox CBO Craig Breslow set out to add power this offseason — “We still are going to prioritize someone who can hit in the middle of the order and kind of change the overall outlook of the offense,” he told MLB.com in December — though that didn’t really happen. The Red Sox are projected to be a bottom-third home run team in 2026.

Neither Steamer nor ZiPS projects a single Red Sox player as a true talent 20-homer bat in 2026. I would bet a shiny nickel that the BoSox have at least one 20-homer guy this summer (likely more than one), but the objective data-based projection systems see this team as short on power. It was an issue at times last year and it looks like it could be an issue at times again this year.

Boston’s path to outperforming power projections involves Anthony becoming the superstar he looks like he’ll be, Contreras falling in love with Fenway Park, and young players like Mayer and Rafaela taking steps forward. Breslow did excellent work upgrading the rotation this offseason. The bullpen should be OK. If they outperform power projections, they’ll be one of the top teams in the sport.

Projected starting lineup

1. LF Taylor Ward, RHB
2. SS Gunnar Henderson, LHB
3. 1B Pete Alonso, RHB
4. C Adley Rutschman, SHB
5. RF Dylan Beavers, LHB
6. CF Colton Cowser, LHB
7. 2B Blaze Alexander, RHB
8. DH Samuel Basallo, LHB
9. 3B Coby Mayo, RHB

The O’s are already down two starting infielders. Jackson Holliday has a hamate injury and Jordan Westburg has an elbow injury, the latter of which is the greater long-term concern. The leadoff spot is unsettled for the time being. It could be Ward, it could be Henderson, it could even be Rutschman. We’ll find out on Opening Day. Expect Tyler O’Neill to platoon with Beavers and Ryan Mountcastle to platoon with Basallo, who doubles as the O’s backup catcher. Thairo Estrada is in camp as a non-40-man roster player and could factor into the infield while Holliday and Westburg are out.

Projected rotation

1. LHP Trevor Rogers
2. RHP Kyle Bradish
3. RHP Chris Bassitt
4. RHP Shane Baz
5. RHP Zach Eflin
6. RHP Dean Kremer

The O’s were unable to land the legitimate No. 1 starter they wanted this offseason, so they instead balanced upside (Baz) with reliability (Bassitt). Eflin is a bit of a blend between the two. Baltimore has hinted at using a six-man rotation this year and lefty Cade Povich is next in line whenever fill-in starts are needed. That’s a very high-variance rotation. Could be amazing, could be meh.

Notable relievers

On paper, the bullpen is the weakest part of the roster, though the Orioles are hardly alone there. Helsley is looking to rebound from a 2025 season that was so bad it’s almost hard to believe. How do you throw 101 mph and give up a .667 slugging percentage on your fastball? The setup crew is unimposing, though Akin is underrated. Cano turning the clock back to 2023-24 would be an enormous lift.

Biggest question: Will their building block hitters live up to expectations?

Last year’s colossally disappointing 75-87 finish was largely the result of an inadequate pitching staff. It looked to be an issue going into the season and it played out to the worst-case scenario. The O’s finished 24th in pitching WAR and 24th in rotation WAR last season, and that was with Rogers having about as dominant an 18-start stretch as anyone in the game.

The pitching staff gets most of the blame for 2025 and that’s understandable, but don’t let the offense off the hook. The Orioles were 24th in runs and 23rd in position player WAR last season. For a team that rebuilt around power bats, that’s dreadful. This isn’t a one-year blip either. Look at the O’s offensive numbers since the 2024 All-Star break:

This has been a below league-average offense for a year and a half now. There is almost no level of pitching that can prop that up and turn that team into a contender, especially in the AL East, where offense reigns supreme. Yes, Baltimore’s pitching was bad and they had to take steps to correct it. There’s a reason they added Alonso and Ward this offseason as well. They were needed.

“Our lineup underperformed their talent level last year,” POBO Mike Elias told the Baltimore Banner in December. “So just kind of injecting more hitting talent into the batting lineup is kind of item No. 1 (this offseason).

If you know why Rutschman has gone from a franchise cornerstone to just a lowercase-g guy, tell the Orioles. They’ll probably hire you on the spot. Cowser, Holliday, and Mayo have failed to launch (though Holliday is still so young). Henderson is one of the best players in the game. He gets no blame here, but the other homegrown hitters have fallen well short of expectations.  

Alonso and Ward bring needed right-handed power, the kind O’Neill was supposed to (and didn’t) provide last year. Bottom line, though, either the O’s young hitters start taking a step forward or it will be time to question Elias and the team’s hitter development. The pitching staff got needed upgrades this winter. Now the offense has to perform like it is expected to perform.

Projected starting lineup

1. 2B Gavin Lux, LHB
2. DH Yandy Díaz, RHB
3. 1B Jonathan Aranda, LHB
4. 3B Junior Caminero, RHB
5. RF Jake Fraley, LHB
6. CF Cedric Mullins, LHB
7. C Nick Fortes, RHB
8. LF Chandler Simpson, LHB
9. SS Taylor Walls, SHB

With stalwart Brandon Lowe now in Pittsburgh, it’s fair to wonder if anyone other than Caminero will hit even 20 home runs in 2026, especially with the move out of homer-happy George M. Steinbrenner Field and back into pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. Righty bats Jonny DeLuca, Justyn-Henry Malloy, and Ben Williamson will get platoon opportunities.

Projected rotation

1. RHP Drew Rasmussen
2. LHP Shane McClanahan
3. RHP Ryan Pepiot
4. LHP Steven Matz
5. RHP Nick Martinez

McClanahan missed the entire 2024 and 2025 seasons with Tommy John surgery and a triceps issue. He was in the Cy Young race before getting hurt in 2023 and returning to that level feels imperative for the Rays to have a chance to contend. Rasmussen is close to an ace on a per-inning basis and Pepiot has been rock solid the last two years. Matz and Martinez are warm bodies while righty Joe Boyle and lefty Ian Seymour wait in the wings.

Notable relievers

Edwin Uceta’s troublesome shoulder means closing duties will likely fall to Jax, last season’s big deadline addition. You can’t rule out Cleavinger and even Baker getting matchup work in the ninth inning though. The roles may be unsettled, but there is one thing you always count on with Tampa’s bullpen: their relievers will throw hard. That will be true again in 2026.

Biggest question: What will Caminero do for an encore?

It flew under the radar last season, but Caminero became only the fourth player in history to hit 40 home runs at age 21 or younger. His 45 dingers were second to Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews’ 47 homers as a 21-year-old in 1953. Hall of Famer Mel Ott (42 homers at age 20 in 1929) and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. (41 homers at age 21 in 2019) are the only others to do it.

Extend the list to 35 home runs at 21 or younger and you get all-timers like Albert Pujols, Frank Robinson, and Alex Rodriguez. Hit this many homers when you’re this young and you’re a special talent and a special hitter. Caminero wasn’t a George M. Steinbrenner Field merchant either. He hit more homers on the road (23) than at the Rays’ homer-happy temporary home (22). 

The question now for the Rays, who on paper look like the clear fifth team in the five-team AL East, is what does Caminero do next? Guys who are this good, this young, tend to get better into their mid-20s. It’s very rare you perform this well at this age and it proves to be a career year. Maybe Caminero won’t hit 45 homers again, but expect his overall game to develop further.

Last month, Caminero said he’s open to an extension — “I’d like to (discuss it), but this is not my decision,” he told the Tampa Bay Times — and yeah, the Rays should get on that ASAP. Caminero is five years away from free agency, so this isn’t an urgent matter, but the sooner the Rays sign him, the bigger the discount. Here are the biggest extensions at his service time level:

1. Jackson Merrill: 9 years and $135 million (signed April 2025)
2. Jacob Wilson: 7 years and $70 million (signed January 2026)
3. Ke’Bryan Hayes: 8 years and $70 million (signed April 2022)
4. Lawrence Butler: 7 years and $65.5 million (signed March 2025)
5. Ezequiel Tovar: 7 years and $63.5 million (signed March 2024)

Wait another year and suddenly the contract comps become Fernando Tatis Jr.. (14 years and $340 million) and Bobby Witt Jr. (11 years and $288.8 million). If the Rays can get Caminero on Merrill’s contract, they should do it yesterday. Power pays, though, so I reckon a Caminero deal would come in closer to 10 years and $160 million, and perhaps (much) higher than that.

Extension or no extension, Caminero is a foundational piece for the Rays, and the premium power hitter the franchise has basically no chance of signing as a free agent. If the Rays are going to contend in 2026, another monster Caminero season is imperative. He’s already one of the game’s top power hitters and is on the kind of trajectory that could put him in rarified air.