Statistically speaking, when Cade Cunningham fouled out with just under two minutes to play on Friday, the Pistons, down six after Jarrett Allen made his two free throws, had less than a 9% chance of coming back to beat the Cavaliers.
It wasn’t an offensive clinic by any stretch without Cunningham, but the Pistons, thanks in large part to Craig Craig Porter Jr. and Evan Mobley each shanking a potentially game-icing free throw, managed to scrap their way to a three-point deficit with possession and 6.5 seconds remaining.
Which, for Cleveland, brought about one of the modern game’s most polarizing dilemmas: To foul, or not foul, with a three-point lead in the closing seconds of a game. The analytics say foul every time, but coaches are a conservative, paranoid bunch, and a lot of them choose to play out the defensive possession and concede a game-tying attempt rather than risk fouling a shooter in the act and giving up three free throws.
On Friday, Kenny Atkinson took the risk. And burned the Cavs big time when Detroit’s Daniss Jenkins alertly went into his shooting motion from beyond half court just as Jaylon Tyson made intentional contact with him.
Nikola Jokic loves to do this, launching into a shot from a mile away whenever he senses contact coming to try to steal three free throws. It’s basically a gimmick and officials are wired not to fall for it. They are going to call this foul on the ground every time unless the contact lines up perfectly with the shooting motion, which almost never happens. But take a closer look, and you’ll see this time it actually did.
So Jenkins, who just had his two-way contract converted to a standard NBA deal, got the three free throws with 4.7 seconds to play, and credit to him for knocking them down. That takes some onions. Jenkins didn’t have a good shooting night, but nobody cares now, as he helped Detroit force overtime, where they won 122-119.
For Cleveland, even though they were kind of playing with house money with Donovan Mitchell and James Harden out on the road against the East’s No. 1 seed, that’s about as rough a way to lose as possible. The question is going to be asked: Did Atkinson make the right call by having the Cavs foul up three? The answer, without hesitation, is yes.
But I have a different question: Why does the NBA continue to allow these ‘up-three’ intentional fouls? It goes completely against the spirit of the rule. Fouls are supposed to hurt the offending team, or help the offended, however you want to look at it. In this case, the reverse happens.
Imagine if a football team, up six with one second to play, could just jump offsides to keep the offense from attempting a game-tying pass to the end zone. No, all that would happen is the offense would move closer. Same thing, basically. If the tying run is at the plate, even if you intentionally walk, you eventually have to throw a pitch to someone. You have to give them their chance to tie the game.
But in the NBA, you can just take that opportunity away by committing an act that is supposed to punish you. It makes zero sense. It robs the fans, who are already getting ripped off by the price they pay to watch the game, of what could be the most entertaining part of their experience. Nobody pays to watch free throws.
The league knows this, by the way. That’s why it punishes intentional fouls when a team is doing it with under two minutes to play to force a bad free-throw shooter to go to the line. If you do it, it’s two free throws plus the ball back. So guess what: Nobody does it. And we get to watch actual basketball in the closing minutes.
The same logic should be applied to these ‘up-three’ fouls. Two free throws plus possession. Believe me, you will never see an ‘up-three’ intentional foul again.
And don’t tell me these officials, who are the best in the world at what they do, cannot be trusted to use their judgment as to what is and isn’t an intentional foul. Literally, their entire job is based on judgment. Everyone in that building knew Tyson’s foul was coming on Friday. Jenkins was so sure he was going to be fouled that he launched up a shot from 60 feet. This isn’t hard.
But fine, if you want to take the burden off officials deeming what is and isn’t intentional, here it is: If you foul away from the ball, or anywhere outside the 3-point line on the ball, with less than 10 seconds remaining, it’s three free throws. It doesn’t matter if the foul is on the ground. Three free throws. Them’s the breaks. Put this rule in, and the very next night, ‘up-three’ intentional fouls will be eliminated.
In this way, I’m glad the Cavs at least got burned by the strategy on Friday. To be clear, as long as the league is going to let teams get away with this, it’s smart to do it. It’s a lot harder to make two free throws, then miss the last one intentionally, then get the rebound, then go back up and score a second-chance basket, than it is to just make one 3-pointer. So why give an opponent a shot at the latter?
Teams are not going to think in terms of doing right by the fans. They’re going to think in terms of competitive advantage, and nothing else. It’s the league’s job to serve the people who pay its bills. Here’s hoping that one day somebody in the league office comes to their senses and changes this end-of-game loophole — but until then, here’s hoping more teams get burned, as the Cavs did on Friday night. Every time that happens, it will at least make the next coach think twice.
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