College basketball power rankings: Which teams are most likely to win it all?

1 The five-point loss on to Duke on a neutral court last weekend doesn’t dissuade me from the belief that Dusty May has the best team in college basketball. Wolverines are 26-2, on trajectory to win the loaded Big Ten and a lock to be a 1 seed. 2 Houston’s doubled its loss total the last two weeks with three consecutive losses to drop to 23-5. But I’m not pushing the panic button on the Cougs. They have NBA talent in the frontcourt and backcourt, play elite defense, have quality guards who can dictate tempo and have roster versatility to boot. This’ll be a hard team to out in the tourney. 3 Few teams are more difficult to match with than Arizona — one of only three teams to be rated top-10 in offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency at KenPom. The Wildcats have their best defensive unit since Tommy Lloyd’s arrival and have managed to pair that with an elite offense. If fully healthy, they should be considered the 1B title favorite with Michigan. 4 Duke’s No. 1 at KenPom and the frontrunner to be the No. 1 overall seed. But, by a slim margin, I have the Bule Devils fourth among title contenders solely because of reservations about this team’s backcourt and its shooting potential surrounding Cameron Boozer. Boozer, though, has the ability to just drag this team all the way. He’s that good. 5 Dan Hurley has his Huskies playing with verve at just the right time after smacking St. John’s by 32 points this week. The Huskies have gone from good to great defensively and have size, scoring and experience. 6 This Illinois team can score with anyone — it rates No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom — and it has a star in Keaton Wagler with killer complementary pieces around him. Three OT losses in its last five outings doesn’t and shouldn’t stunt how we view this team’s ceiling. 7 Florida is 17-2 since starting the season 5-4 and finding ways to win by smashing the offensive glass and dominating on defense. If it can get good, consistent guard play in March, this team can go back-to-back. 8 The Darryn Peterson noise has drowned out KU’s solid season. I’m here to say it shouldn’t. Here’s the formula: Bill Self + No. 1 pick + star defender Flory Bidunga = Final Four? If this team can get continuity with its roster I think it can be one of the best, if not the very best, in the 68-team field. 9 This is low for a team on track to be a No. 1 seed candidate, but for as good as Iowa State is — particularly on defense and shooting the ball — I’m skeptical of its postseason ceiling. Call me a hater, but Cyclones have serious first-weekend upset potential. We don’t know the bracket yet, but I am already locked on not picking them past the Sweet 16. 10 The preseason No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers have six losses on the season — four of which have shockingly come at home — but for reasons that should be obvious I still cannot quit this team. Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn are a duo no team will want to face in March. 11 Injuries have plagued Gonzaga and kept the Bulldogs largely just out of the spotlight, and yet, they are 28-2 on the season and very much in the mix to win 30 games by Selection Sunday. When healthy, Mark Few has a team that is his most complete since 2020-21. 12 John Calipari has his best offensive team in years thanks to the star turn of freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr. He can be Mr. March and lead the Razorbacks deep into the bracket — if they can find a way to slow teams defensively, that is. 13 We saw Michigan State’s potential on full display Thursday as it went into Mackey Arena and downed Purdue, 76-74. Sparty has great guard play led by Jeremy Fears, an athletic marvel in Coen Carr and a cohesive defensive unit. 14 First-year UVA coach Ryan Odom has the best team in the ACC not named Duke — and it is riding a nine-game winning streak into the weekend. Experience, size, toughness — this Cavaliers team checks a ton of boxes. 15 A stat that does not feel real: Nebraska has never won an NCAA Tournament game. That changes this year. It’d be remarkable yet fitting if, in the first NCAA Tournament in which it changes that, it goes all the way and claims the title. Not impossible, given the way Fred Hoiberg’s 3-point-and-defense approach has positioned the Cornhuskers. 16 A middling 9-6 record in ACC play has Louisville flying well under the radar, but this Cardinals team — with a heavy emphasis on flinging 3s, playing with pace and relying on its guards — has the makings of an underrated tourney club. Mikel Brown Jr. could have some big moments and make himself a March legend with a deep run. 17 UConn smacked St. John’s around Wednesday in a humbling outing. But Rick Pitino will find a way to tweak his roster and ensure they are prepped for the madness. The big question is whether they have the guard play to go the distance. 18 Alabama has won seven-straight after a 4-4 start to SEC play. The Tide have a distinct style under Nate Oats, prioritizing tempo and a steady volume of 3s. Led by Labaron Philon they will no doubt be a difficult out. 19 The loss of star forward JT Toppin is potentially a death knell for Texas Tech’s title hopes. I’m leaving the light on, though, because Christian Anderson has been that good. If Donovan Atwell and LeJuan Watts can be consistent ancillary pieces then I like this Red Raiders team as a sleeper contender. 20 It’s been ugly the last two weeks — Saint Louis has gone from 24-1 to 25-3 — but the Billikens have an efficient offense predicated on getting quality looks and have a deep bench full of experience. Josh Schertz’s club has plenty of weapons, and Schertz won’t be outmatched from an Xs and Os standpoint. 21 The 16-0 start to the season for Vandy feels like a long time ago — it is 6-6 in the 12 games since — but the Commodores have proven they can go on runs when they get hot. Tyler Tanner and Tyler Nickel are studs. 22 Losing Richie Saunders to a torn ACL is perhaps the most devastating injury for any team this season — on par with the impact Texas Tech has felt after losing JT Toppin. The Cougars have college basketball’s leading scorer and a No. 1 pick candidate, AJ Dybantsa, and he is well-equipped to be the best player on every court he steps on. 23 The 22-6 record doesn’t do justice to describe UNC’s ceiling. This team has wins over Kansas, Virginia, Duke and Louisville. The big question looming here is the status of injured freshman star Caleb Wilson. With uncertainty there it’s hard to be confident projecting the Tar Heels. 24 Nick Boyd and Wisconsin have been giant killers several times this season with wins over Michigan, Illinois and Iowa — among others — in the 2026 calendar year. The Badgers take care of the ball, shoot a high volume of 3s and have the personnel to match with any team. 25 The only remaining undefeated team in college basketball deserves inclusion on this list. Travis Steele’s Redhawks are 28-0, and while they are 800-1 to win it all, they should be on the radar. They have a star coach and a roster that has continuity. Few teams have both of those in 2026.