UFC Fight Night predictions — Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh: Fight card, picks

Brandon Moreno is coming home. Moreno, the first Mexican UFC champion, returns to his home nation in the main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday, emanating from Arena CDMX in Mexico City. The former two-time flyweight champ faces an unexpected opponent in short-notice replacement Lone’er Kavanagh.

Moreno (23-8-2) has much at stake professionally and personally. Joshua Van’s unusual ascension to flyweight champion presents new matchmaking opportunities. A win this weekend won’t produce an immediate title shot, but could set him up for a title eliminator. Moreno’s homecoming comes at a troubling time for the country. Violence has spread across parts of Mexico after the death of powerful cartel leader Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, commonly known as “El Mencho.” 

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“It has been really hard hours for my Mexican people,” Moreno told CBS Sports’ Brian Campbell. “It’s weird, man. It’s crazy because, right now, I’m super focused on my fight, but, at the same time, I know that a lot of Mexican people are focused on this bad moment. Maybe [the UFC Fight Night event] can be a nice moment for the people to try to forget the bad moment and get some joy.” 

Kavanagh (9-1) has everything to gain and very little to lose. Kavanagh took the fight on three weeks’ notice after Asu Almabayev fell to injury. The fight has many firsts for Kavanagh. It’s his first UFC main event, his first five-round fight, his first time competing against a former champion, and his first time coming off a loss. Yet Kavanagh had no hesitation in accepting the bout.

“I want to look back on my life and see that I’ve done some cool stuff,” Kavanagh said. “The big thing for me is legacy, and this is a legendary moment, so I’m looking forward to it. It just brings me one step closer to the title, and that’s what I want. I’m here to get to the top as quickly as I can, and I’m looking to do whatever it takes to get there.” 

Saturday’s main card is Mexico vs. the world, with each fight featuring one Mexican fighter. There are three fighters, excluding the main event, that fans should keep a close eye on. Knockout artists David Martinez and Imanol Rodriguez are sizable favorites. Martinez, who fights former title challenger Marlon “Chito” Vera, is already a top 10 bantamweight after two UFC fights. Rodriguez makes his UFC debut after a thrilling KO on “Contender Series.” Lastly, CBS Sports 2024 Fight of the Year recipient Daniel Zellhuber looks to turn the corner against exciting veteran King Green.

Let’s take a look at the rest of the fight card with the latest odds from DraftKings before getting to a prediction and expert pick on the main event below.

UFC Fight Night card, odds

UFC Fight Night viewing information

Date: Feb. 28 | Start time: 8 p.m. ET
Location: Arena CDMX — Mexico City
Stream: Paramount+ (subscribe now for as little as $8.99 per month)

Prediction

Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh: I can’t see Kavanagh going 25 minutes with Moreno. Props to Kavanagh for stepping up to the plate, but this is a severe mismatch. He doesn’t have the experience required to compete with the former two-time champ in the totality of the game. Kavanagh should stick to his typical strong start. Three weeks is not enough time to revolutionize a gameplan. Kavanagh could look good in the first five to seven minutes, but that’s when he’ll start losing significant ground. Moreno’s stellar movement and ability to mix things up will overwhelm Kavanagh in the middle rounds. Pick: Moreno via TKO, Round 2