The NHL returns from its Olympic break tonight with a busy slate of eight games, and I’ll focus on Colorado at Utah as that could be a first-round Western Conference playoff preview. In addition, FanDuel has a pretty interesting prop on superstar Nathan MacKinnon’s individual success and the Avalanche’s potential team success.
MacKinnon is probably still kicking himself for missing a wide-open net with about 10 minutes to go in the third period of the gold medal game in Milan vs. Team USA on Sunday. He makes that, which he probably does 95 times out of 100, and Canada most likely wins gold instead of silver.
But the 30-year-old could sweep the NHL’s individual awards he’s eligible for in the Hart Trophy (MVP), Art Ross Trophy (leading league in points) and Rocket Richard Trophy (most goals). To accomplish all that along with Colorado to win the Stanley Cup is priced +1160 at FanDuel while the Avalanche winning the Cup alone is +210 – they are clear favorites.
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I believe MacKinnon is nearly a lock for the Hart and is priced -250. For the Rocket Richard, he’s -260 and leads the NHL by six goals with 40. The Art Ross is where that potential prop might lose as MacKinnon is second with 93 points and a +185 third favorite behind Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov (+145 with 91 points) and Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (+150 with a league-best 96 points).
I have to say I don’t really understand why Kucherov is favored sitting five points back, although he has won the last two Art Ross Trophies. McDavid is not expected to play tonight or perhaps this week after winning Olympic hockey MVP honors while leading the tournament in points. The Oilers want him to rest a bit for the stretch run. That only helps MacKinnon’s chances for the Art Ross.
Only two players in league history have won the awards trifecta: McDavid in 2022-23 and Washington’s Alex Ovechkin in 2007-08. Neither of their teams won the Cup, so we’d see history this summer if all this happens. Clearly, Wayne Gretzky would have won the trifecta at least once (and won a few Cups), but the Rocket Richard Trophy has only been around since 1999.
One thing to also consider is that the Avalanche might shut MacKinnon down near the end of the regular season if they are locked into the top overall seed in the Stanley Cup Playoff or even the West’s top seed.
Colorado leads the NHL with 83 points – five ahead of Tampa Bay – and is the -400 favorite to win the Presidents’ Trophy. That’s a bad idea considering that no team to finish with the most regular-season points has won the Stanley Cup since the 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks (remember well). Winnipeg last season went out in Round 2, the year before, the New York Rangers lost in the East Finals while the year before that, Boston was shocked in Round 1.
Those Bruins set an NHL record with 135 points and for a while it looked like the Avalanche might approach that, but they have come back to earth some. Their new team points over/under total is 119.5. The team record is 119 points in 2021-22, the last time Colorado hoisted the Cup. Any team other than the Avs winning the Presidents’ Trophy is +350.
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The Avalanche also lead the league in goal differential (+74) and scoring (3.84 goals per game). They would be my Cup pick today, though I do worry a bit about their goaltending. Both Scott Wedgewood (20-4-5, 2.30 GAA) and Mackenzie Blackwood (16-5-1, 2.25 GAA) have been superb, but there’s a reason both have been journeymen in their careers. It’s not clear yet who starts tonight.
And who is the No. 1 entering the playoffs? Teams with two good goalies generally don’t win the Cup. You need one great undisputed starter like the Florida Panthers have had the past two seasons with Sergei Bobrovsky. I’ll look at the struggling Panthers tomorrow in the SportsLine newsletter regarding their playoff hopes and perhaps in this space, too.
Utah holds down a West wild card spot and could face the Avalanche in the first round if the seeding works out. The Mammoth have the fourth-best goal differential in the West (+26),, and goalie Karel Vejmelka is having a career season at 27-14-2 with a 2.58 GAA. The wins are tied for the league lead. Utah is -500 to play extra hockey for the first time since moving from Arizona, and I believe it will barring a Vejmelka injury.
Tonight is the last regular-season meeting between the clubs with Colorado up 2-1 in the season series, but that loss did come in Salt Lake City way back in October. MacKinnon has a single goal in those previous three matchups and is +100 to find the net tonight and -550(!) to record a point. In his final game before the break, MacKinnon had an assist to become the third-fastest active player to reach 700 in a career. He did it in 925 games played, behind only McDavid (699 games) and Sidney Crosby (856).
I don’t have a huge lean on Avalanche-Mammoth, but FanDuel has an interesting prop on all 16 teams today scoring at least one goal at +110. That’s worth a shot. Shutouts aren’t easy, and five teams in the league don’t have one yet. The Islanders lead the NHL with eight shutouts but don’t return until tomorrow.
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